Thoughts on economic conditions

livingston · Sep 28, 2016

When we look at agricultural prices ... The bottom has fallen out for most things .
STEERS: 128.00-130.00.....price per hundred weight ...
Northampton Livestock Auction
Whately, Mass.
Jan. 12, 2016

Choice steers averaged 107.40/cwt or 2.04/cwt lower than the previous week.
New Holland, Pa.
Sept. 19, 2016

$250/head less than in january

meketrefe · Sep 28, 2016

The economy has to refocus around the same concept that should drive many aspects of our lives that is sustainability.
The world is a limited space with limited resources and economies have grown so much and so fast that this system has created unprecedented problems. I am not talking just about the bubble system that by definition is designed to fail, but all the consequences of that system.
Nobody with a brain will think that continuing as we are is going to work. It doesn't matter the political views one has, it is simple logic and common sense.
So a totally new economy should arise around renovation, preservation, modest profits, sustainability, etc...
This takes a lot more than politics. It starts with ethics and education from birth. So right now we are screwed with the irresponsible and wasteful approach.
We can learn a lot from micro economies, reduce expenses, the size of government and empower small communities to take charge.
We have examples that all this requires is determination but we will be fighting very dark and sinister forces from the huge corporate lobby and the corrupt politicians
who are financed by them.

SigLady · Sep 28, 2016

Tyler Durden? Of Fight Club fame? That may be his real name but I'd consider a nom de plume if I were him.The whole time I read the article, I kept thinking about all the big banks of the world with burning smiley faces on the front of their buildings....

SigLady · Sep 28, 2016

meketrefe said:
We have examples that all this requires is determination but we will be fighting very dark and sinister forces from the huge corporate lobby and the corrupt politicians
who are financed by them.

Oh, is that all? Take on the NWO folks, the Clintons and the George Soroses of the world. Cake walk!

The problem is that it's not going to change because no matter what the average people want (or how many of us there are), it's the folks with money (capital M... serious money, folks that make Donald Trump look like a middle class schlump) who steer the ship-- the Soroses, the Clintons, the Rothschilds of the world... the mega billionaires who are so powerful we don't even know who they are. They want a bubble and a crash- they're the ones engineering it because they'll benefit greatly in the aftermath. Tank the markets, tank the prices, then sweep in with your capital and snatch up assets at fire sale prices. It will be the great consolidation of power.

Criticalt · Sep 28, 2016

Money is for chumps, plan now for not having any.

Cleck · Sep 28, 2016

Criticalt said:
Money is for chumps, plan now for not having any.

Looks like I have a leg-up on that race then. Finally, something I'm good at!

SigLady · Sep 28, 2016

Drinkthekoolaid said:
This is exactly what I fear will happen. I was reading the other day how many Billions Warren Buffett is holding back NOT investing, waiting for the crash to buy at firesale prices.

Schlups like us with 401k's, we're toast.

It's the stuff of Hollywood movies... except it's real. But what do we know? We're just the folks wearing tin foil hats...

Snappo · Sep 28, 2016

I took a hybrid approach to the market. I feel there will be a correction, and that the P/E ratio on many companies is way beyond what I feel is reasonable and will be impacted severely in a correction. That having been said, I didn't want to go cash due to inflation, and the bond market could also correct at the same time. As such, I restructured my portfolio to remain in the market but to be in specific companies based on their P/E, industry, specific products manufactured, etc. Here is the way I rolled:

Pharma - people need their meds: Merck (P/E of 35, 3% dividend), Johnson&Johnson(P/E of 22 and 3% dividend), Proctor&Gamble(PE of 24 and 3% dividend).
DOW Powerhouse - too big to fail: GE (P/E of 25 and 3% dividend)
Utilities - people need power: Southern Co(P/E of 20 but no dividend), Duke Energy(P/E of 20, 4% dividend)
ETF: FDIS - people need food staples and home improvement (have to DIY when you cant afford contractors)
Gold - just a hedge against inflation
Others: Berkshire-Hathaway. Trust in Derr Buffett.
Target funds: Don't need this until 2030 and its all USAA - USAAX, USSBX, URTNX.

Non market stuff: Gold Buffaloes, Standing Liberty's, Silver bullion, guns & ammo, do not owe any revolving debt, and loaded up on everything zombie-apocalypse I thought I needed to survive 10 years with no government existing anymore (barter system).

SigLady · Sep 28, 2016

Snappo said:
I took a hybrid approach to the market. I feel there will be a correction, and that the P/E ratio on many companies is way beyond what I feel is reasonable and will be impacted severely in a correction. That having been said, I didn't want to go cash due to inflation, and the bond market could also correct at the same time. As such, I restructured my portfolio to remain in the market but to be in specific companies based on their P/E, industry, specific products manufactured, etc. Here is the way I rolled:

Pharma - people need their meds: Merck (P/E of 35, 3% dividend), Johnson&Johnson(P/E of 22 and 3% dividend), Proctor&Gamble(PE of 24 and 3% dividend).
DOW Powerhouse - too big to fail: GE (P/E of 25 and 3% dividend)
Utilities - people need power: Southern Co(P/E of 20 but no dividend), Duke Energy(P/E of 20, 4% dividend)
ETF: FDIS - people need food staples and home improvement (have to DIY when you cant afford contractors)
Gold - just a hedge against inflation
Others: Berkshire-Hathaway. Trust in Derr Buffett.
Target funds: Don't need this until 2030 and its all USAA - USAAX, USSBX, URTNX.

Non market stuff: Gold Buffaloes, Standing Liberty's, Silver bullion, guns & ammo, do not owe any revolving debt, and loaded up on everything zombie-apocalypse I thought I needed to survive 10 years with no government existing anymore (barter system).

Holy crow! The post-apocalypse party's at Snappo's! You're all set

Snappo · Sep 28, 2016

SigLady said:
Holy crow! The post-apocalypse party's at Snappo's! You're all set

I kinda think I am. I have maybe 50-100 apple trees and at least 100 jars of sauce. I keep 2 freezers full of meat. I have at least 200 big jars of honey. For power I have 500 gallons of home heating oil and a John Deere where the PTO drive generator puts out 16Kw. I have a portable gas Coleman generator doing 5Kw. I have 75 guns, 100K rounds of ammo, I have a well that holds at least 50K gallons of water at any given moment, complete house water treatment, a 1 acre pond that's 5 feet deep and I have water filter handhelds in each ATV, I have snowmobiles, a half dozen 4x4's, and enough spare bedrooms for my family to bug out to here. I have deer, turkey, rabbit, fox, geese, bear, and god knows what else that's edible. I have acres of fruit and veggies growing, and tons of burpee non-GMO seed. I have my EMT run kit loaded, lots of blades, machetes, axes, hatchets, etc. and my house heats on wood. I have at least 100 acres of wood. I have zero debt, money invested, and can barter in gold and silver (As well as ammo if need be). Anything I ever saw on those stupid doomsday prepper shows I was always able to say "I have a better setup than that toothless hillbilly". And I am cool with all my neighbors, who also are prepared and own farms. We could hole up here on top of this mountain for 100 years and nobody could even fantasize fucking with us. Every one of them hunts. Oh, and I collect 20+ year old investment grade whiskey; so I definitely can get my buzz on for the rest of my life on what I have. And I am insured out the ass with USAA, and even in a nuclear holocaust that bank isn't going anywhere since everyone in the military and every veteran uses it. Worked my whole life to make sure my family would be OK. That was my #1 goal from age 21 to present. And I am un-poor; so I don't cut corners.

Cleck · Sep 28, 2016

Damn, that's how I wanna retire - fat and happy. Nice work Snappo

Snappo · Sep 28, 2016

mjaetdti said:
Damn, that's how I wanna retire - fat and happy. Nice work Snappo

I haven't nailed the happy part yet. Been up here for 6 years now and kind of wish I had a wingman that had the same hobbies I have to hang out with. But by the time you get into your 50s you already have your clique. Once I nail that I should be right where I want to be.

JohnnyQ · Sep 28, 2016

Call me nuts...but this past week I cashed out my whole Roth IRA portfolio and I'm just waiting...fiscal year,election day,Halloween...something may happen...or not.

Doc8404 · Sep 28, 2016

I'm cutting up my furniture as we speak, gonna be a hell of a party in November...

MikeM · Sep 28, 2016

JohnnyQ said:
Call me nuts...but this past week I cashed out my whole Roth IRA portfolio and I'm just waiting...fiscal year,election day,Halloween...something may happen...or not.

Remember, you can put it back within 60 days it the markets dictates. And avoid paying the taxes on it

JohnnyQ · Sep 28, 2016

I meant I close my positions...never withadraw the $$. Thanks for the hint though!

livingston · Sep 29, 2016

SigLady said:
Oh, is that all? Take on the NWO folks, the Clintons and the George Soroses of the world. Cake walk!

The problem is that it's not going to change because no matter what the average people want (or how many of us there are), it's the folks with money (capital M... serious money, folks that make Donald Trump look like a middle class schlump) who steer the ship-- the Soroses, the Clintons, the Rothschilds of the world... the mega billionaires who are so powerful we don't even know who they are. They want a bubble and a crash- they're the ones engineering it because they'll benefit greatly in the aftermath. Tank the markets, tank the prices, then sweep in with your capital and snatch up assets at fire sale prices. It will be the great consolidation of power.

On another forum a fellow related a story
His grandfather was a rancher in the Dakotas ... The depression came. Everyone in the county had a mortgage with the local family owned bank. .... Almost everyone lost their land during that time .. Could not pay the taxes or pay the land off ... Banker ended up with everything ... Fast forward a few years and folks did buy their land back .. the economy improved .. WW2 came along.. folks could make a living. What that banker did when he sold the land is retain 1/2 the mineral rights on all the land they had controlled ... Fast forward to 2010 .. Fracking boom hits the Dakotas.. Oil strikes everywhere ... . The grandson is running the bank and today could be a billionaire because of owning mineral rights on most of the county... All because the Great Depression ruined so many lives ..

tirwin1 · Sep 29, 2016

Drinkthekoolaid said:
I have seriously thought about getting out of my current 401k positions and funds and let most of it just sit there not invested. And hold off to see what happens for a bit here and then buy back into the same or similar funds.

The reason I haven't yet is if im wrong I will miss out on some decent gains. The market has been doing well. And I'm not a financial advisor. I don't know if there are any penalties for selling your funds and just keep your cash holdings in your 401k letting it sit there or for how long you can do that.

I know exactly how you feel. My concerns first started back in 2011. The explosive growth of the deficit made me think another crash was right around the corner. I found many commentators urging people to get out of the market. There was only one problem - they were all wrong. The doom and gloom crowd has been repeating the same advice every year. It's easy to go on youtube and find serious people (not conspiracy whackjobs) warning about a huge stock market reversal every year since 2011. It's a good thing I didn't listen to them because I would have missed out on the gains in the past 4 years.

The problem is fundamentally I agree with the doom and gloom crowd. The current level of debt combined with the projected increase due to entitlements is a very scary number. There is a famous saying by the economist Herbert Stein - "If something can't go on forever it will stop." At some point the party will end. My sense is the longer we postpone the day of reckoning the greater the pain will be.

I have sold some things and keep a larger cash balance than I used to. And I am seriously considering diversifying into gold and silver as defensive plays. But I haven't done anything with my 401k. Up until now that has been a sound strategy. But in the back of my mind I keep thinking that selling the assets and holding cash is the way to go. Diversification has always been a sound strategy (stocks, bonds, cash, precious metals) but I think it makes sense more than ever. The markets can get whipsawed very easily these days.

Snappo · Sep 29, 2016

JohnnyQ said:
Call me nuts...but this past week I cashed out my whole Roth IRA portfolio and I'm just waiting...fiscal year,election day,Halloween...something may happen...or not.

Cash is killing you because of inflation. If you think there is going to be a correction but you can't wait a few years to weather the storm, research something called inverse ETF's. Inverse exchange-traded fund - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Personally I am going long (don't need money from investments until at least 2020 and more likely 2030) but I do have an ETF for gold.

Snappo · Sep 29, 2016

tirwin1 said:
I know exactly how you feel. My concerns first started back in 2011. The explosive growth of the deficit made me think another crash was right around the corner. I found many commentators urging people to get out of the market. There was only one problem - they were all wrong. The doom and gloom crowd has been repeating the same advice every year. It's easy to go on youtube and find serious people (not conspiracy whackjobs) warning about a huge stock market reversal every year since 2011. It's a good thing I didn't listen to them because I would have missed out on the gains in the past 4 years.

The problem is fundamentally I agree with the doom and gloom crowd. The current level of debt combined with the projected increase due to entitlements is a very scary number. There is a famous saying by the economist Herbert Stein - "If something can't go on forever it will stop." At some point the party will end. My sense is the longer we postpone the day of reckoning the greater the pain will be.

I have sold some things and keep a larger cash balance than I used to. And I am seriously considering diversifying into gold and silver as defensive plays. But I haven't done anything with my 401k. Up until now that has been a sound strategy. But in the back of my mind I keep thinking that selling the assets and holding cash is the way to go. Diversification has always been a sound strategy (stocks, bonds, cash, precious metals) but I think it makes sense more than ever. The markets can get whipsawed very easily these days.

Here is why I will never leave the market: Let's say you have XXX amount of money. If you started investing it when Charles Dow created the Dow industrial average, and you spread your money equally among all the DOW components with a P/E under 10 and you re-balanced once a year, from 1890 to present you would have made 14.7% interest on that XXX money. This includes all the corrections, the great crash, the recent crashes, etc. 14.7% all in. So yeah you should hedge inflation with gold and silver, etc. but there is no need to leave the stock market even if you think a correction is around the corner. And in the great crash and depression almost 100 years ago, the stocks that were DOW components with a P/E under 10 only lost 20% of their value. 10% on Black Monday and 10% on Black Tuesday. And those companies actually recovered that 20% in just around a month and by the end of the depression were double their value. My mom was a Wall St. executive (Merril Lynch, Paine Webber Jackson and Curtis, and eventually Shearson Lehmann American Express). I was raised on stories about Wall Street. It's way different than the portrayals of greed by the drooling anti-intellectuals that make up groups like Occupy Wall Street, etc. Wall Street is what makes America great.

JohnnyQ · Sep 29, 2016

Snappo said:
Cash is killing you because of inflation. If you think there is going to be a correction but you can't wait a few years to weather the storm, research something called inverse ETF's. Inverse exchange-traded fund - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Personally I am going long (don't need money from investments until at least 2020 and more likely 2030) but I do have an ETF for gold.

Not going to hold it forever. Probably won't wait much longer than Christmas to get back into the market

I know...inflation is a silent killer

Snappo · Oct 1, 2016

JohnnyQ said:
Not going to hold it forever. Probably won't wait much longer than Christmas to get back into the market I know...inflation is a silent killer

Every year of hold just try and do 3% to break even. Even 30 day CDs laddered in weekly intervals

Foxtrapper · Oct 2, 2016

With all the current bail in's happening anyone with money in the market should plan on never seeing a dime of it. When the wealth transfer hits, ie, the crash, collapse, ect, where do you all think your money is gonna end up? If you can afford to loose it, by all means, leave it there. Anyone with money in the bank will have the same problem. Cash is king, gold and silver is better, but the best is being properly prepared with food and stuff you will need when everything else is burning down around you.

dsdmmat · Oct 2, 2016

Foxtrapper said:
With all the current bail in's happening anyone with money in the market should plan on never seeing a dime of it. When the wealth transfer hits, ie, the crash, collapse, ect, where do you all think your money is gonna end up? If you can afford to loose it, by all means, leave it there. Anyone with money in the bank will have the same problem. Cash is king, gold and silver is better, but the best is being properly prepared with food and stuff you will need when everything else is burning down around you.

Gold and silver won't help during a crisis. You cannot eat either and nobody is going to trade for something that is not useful. Gold and silver will only be valuable after the crisis is nearly over and it will only serve to get you things you need to survive or make you a target to those who don't have any. Precious metals are a way to preserve wealth in the return of normal. If normal does not return hopefully you can melt the stuff and make bullets out of it.

Thoughts on economic conditions

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9mm

.450/400 Nitro Ex

.357 mag

9mm

.475 A&M Magnum

20×102mm Vulcan

.450/400 Nitro Ex

6.5 Creedmoor

6.5 Creedmoor

9mm

.475 A&M Magnum

6.5 Creedmoor

.40 S&W

Donut Master

.475 A&M Magnum