Ground Reports – 2018 Midterm Election

[livingston]

In the past several election cycles CTH has posted ‘Ground Report- Open Discussion’ threads to review perspectives of ground reports from your state, city and neighborhood. ‘Ground Reports’ are a valuable resource to gauge the non-quantifiable elements around elections; they are often quite insightful.

Many states are currently in the process of early voting. If you have a ground report you would like to share, please use the comment section below to provide your perspective
330 Responses to Ground Reports – 2018 Midterm Election
Ground Reports – 2018 Midterm Election

 

[livingston]

NEW BRUNSWICK, NJ – With two weeks until Election Day, incumbent U.S. Senator Bob Menendez narrowly leads Republican challenger Bob Hugin 51 percent to 46 percent among likely voters in New Jersey, according to the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.

Menendez’s tight margin stems from the mark his federal corruption trial has left on his reputation, his inability to capture a majority of independents, and a large enthusiasm gap between his likely voters and Hugin’s:

Likely voters who identify as independent prefer Hugin, 50 percent to 43 percent.
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Thirty-eight percent of likely voters say Menendez’s trial factors “a lot” into their vote; 16 percent say it factors “some.”

Twenty-nine percent of Menendez voters are “very enthusiastic” to vote for the senator, compared to 58 percent of Hugin voters who say the same about their candidate of choice.

“After his recent onslaught of attack ads against Menendez, Hugin is making this race much closer than it should be for an incumbent in a blue state,” said Ashley Koning, assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (ECPIP) at Rutgers University–New Brunswick.
Poll: Federal Corruption Trial Dogs Menendez; Hugin Closes Gap in US Senate Race

 

[MothMan]

JG – That seem to be a problem for the Millennial’s. Where do you buy stamps?
As we approach the midterm elections, new reporting from Fairfax County Virginia explains that many college students will not be voting absentee. Why? Sending in an absentee ballot requires knowledge of a foreign concept to millennials: snail mail.

In a focus group of college students, researchers found that all participants “Agreed that they knew lots of people who did not send in their ballots because it was too much of a hassle of they didn’t know where to get a stamp.”
Millennial Monday: Absentee Ballots Can Pose Problems for Millennial Voting

 

[Bigfoot]

Millennial’s could simply ask someone this,,, I know I'm an idiot, but do you know where I could buy some stamps?

and there is always google too.

 

[livingston]

Indiana’s Senate race is officially in a dead heat
https://theweek.com/speedreads/805032/indianas-senate-race-officially-dead-heat
5:52p.m.
Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images
Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) is still holding onto his hotly contested Senate seat — but barely.

In recent polls, the Democrat has generally fallen close behind his Republican opponent Mike Braun. But an NBC News/Marist poll published Wednesday shows Donnelly with a two-point lead, 48-46, over Braun. Still, that's not a lead Donnelly can be confident in, seeing as the poll's margin of error was 5.5 percentage points for likely voters.

Donnelly has long been seen as a vulnerable Democrat, seeing as President Trump decisively won the state in 2016. Half of the state's voters currently approve of the president, the poll also showed. Donnelly refused to support Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation, which could be why his chances of winning have dwindled in recent polls, reports RealClearPolitics.

Democrats would need to hold onto Donnelly's seat if they're looking to flip the Senate this fall, especially since several other red-state Democrats' chances are looking shakier than Donnelly's. There is one positive for Donnelly in this poll: He has 63 percent support among Indianans who've already voted.

The NBC News/Marist poll was conducted from Oct. 24-28 and surveyed 931 Indiana adults, 496 were likely voters. The margin of error is 5.5 percentage points among likely voters. Kathryn Krawczyk

Indiana’s Senate race is officially in a dead heat