projects.fivethirtyeight.com/ congressional predictions

[Blimey]

projects.fivethirtyeight.com has been a very good predict for many years. His presidential election breakdown was solid. I think the night before Trump won, this guy gave him a 30% chance--which is a lot better than most outfits.

He is updating constantly. Today he gives Republicans a 1 in 5 chance of keeping the house.
2018 House Forecast

He gives Republicans a 7 in 10 chance of keeping the Senate.
2018 Senate Forecast

I imagine most of us realize the Senate is far more important. If republicans keep the senate, the brett K thing doesn't matter anymore.

 

[Phazer]

I give the polls a 50:50 chance of being accurate.

 

[BDinPutnam]

538 has a reputation as being strictly data driven. Rightly or wrongly.

I think the House is in serious jeopardy for the GOP; those races tend to be much more local and driven by individal candidates and campaigns than the Senate.

The GOP likely will retain the Senate. They may even pick up a seat or two.

What does it mean if the Democrats take over the House while the GOP retains the Senate?

They might suddenly rediscover an interest in the budget process.

I'd like to think they're not stupid enough to try for impeachment of Trump. But who knows- I haven't been paying any attention to the weekend donkey shows to know what is currently happening with Kavanaugh.

 

[Modean]

538 has a reputation as being strictly data driven. Rightly or wrongly.

I think the House is in serious jeopardy for the GOP; those races tend to be much more local and driven by individal candidates and campaigns than the Senate.

The GOP likely will retain the Senate. They may even pick up a seat or two.

What does it mean if the Democrats take over the House while the GOP retains the Senate?

They might suddenly rediscover an interest in the budget process.

I'd like to think they're not stupid enough to try for impeachment of Trump. But who knows- I haven't been paying any attention to the weekend donkey shows to know what is currently happening with Kavanaugh.

It’s going full retard. Another woman from 30+ years ago is making an unprovable claim against Kav. Just like Ford, people she names are denying.

 

[Acer-m14]

i'm just getting sick n tired of all this shit ... when we have real shit on them and nothing happens ..

 

[Grimscale]

i'm just getting sick n tired of all this shit ... when we have real shit on them and nothing happens ..

Agreed. If they had even one quarter of the evidence we think they have on the Democrats they should be arresting all of them in one major sweep.
what the hell are they doing, since they aren't doing what they were elected to do!

 

[Mr. terzmo]

If I reported all the "incidents" in high school with boys trying to grab a feel or snapping girls bra straps, I'd ruin the reputations of half of the 500+ graduating class. AND report all the girls that flashed or conveniently gave a "panty" show.AND "incidents" at the proms and graduating picnics...oh BOY !! The libs..dems are stooping lower and lower with the @$$holes that come forward with a distorted memory.

 

[JohnD13]

I am not a lawyer and I never stayed at a Quality Inn, but isn't there some legal penalty for bringing false accusations, or at least unsubstantiated claims? Every person these two women have claimed "knew all about it" have denied having anything knowledge of it at all.

 

[Doc8404]

I am not a lawyer and I never stayed at a Quality Inn, but isn't there some legal penalty for bringing false accusations, or at least unsubstantiated claims? Every person these two women have claimed "knew all about it" have denied having anything knowledge of it at all.

yes there are...
and now they are smearing the witnesses THEY said were there.

 

[Doc8404]

I think i'm just going to ask that they put me in prison.
I mean, I can't recall ALL the specifics of all the fun i've had, but as I recall, I saw a lot of T&A and apparently that's enough.

 

[Defilade]

I give the polls a 50:50 chance of being accurate.

Exactly right!

 

[Phauxtoe]

GIGO
Garbage in, Garbage out

538 collects data from a wide variety of polls and crunches the those numbers.
Many other polls are heavily biased, so GIGO!

(having a WRONG prediction but less wrong then others is still not a good positive)
they got one Presidential election Right and one very wrong.

 

[Blimey]

GIGO
Garbage in, Garbage out

538 collects data from a wide variety of polls and crunches the those numbers.
Many other polls are heavily biased, so GIGO!

(having a WRONG prediction but less wrong then others is still not a good positive)
they got one Presidential election Right and one very wrong.

But they didn't get the last one very wrong. This is how predictive statistics work. When you look at the actual race break downs and results you'll see that 538 did a pretty bang up job with the last presidential election. They did not give Hillary a 100% chance of winning--they gave her a 70% chance.

Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else

FiveThirtyEight’s forecast gave Trump much better odds than other polling-based models. Our final forecast, issued early Tuesday evening, had Trump with a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.1 By comparison, other models tracked by The New York Times put Trump’s odds at: 15 percent, 8 percent, 2 percent and less than 1 percent. And betting markets put Trump’s chances at just 18 percent at midnight on Tuesday, when Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, cast its votes.

So why did our model — using basically the same data as everyone else — show such a different result?

 

[usamerican]

538 has a reputation as being strictly data driven. Rightly or wrongly.

Rightly. In 2016 in particular, he was virtually alone in assigning a high probability of correlation between error in individual state results. He gave H a 64.5% chance of winning the week before the election when other pollsters gave her 85-99%, most closer to 99. And he took a lot of abuse including from his “professional” and media colleagues but stuck to his guns.

The poll numbers for states and national popular vote were actually correct within margin of error leading up to the vote (although they were tilted against Trump). What Nate got right was that it wasn’t an independent coin flip who won the states too close to call or borderline. Trump swept the board, which was a possibility that Nate discussed and factored into his 35% chance he assigned to Trump.

If Nate says GOP will probably keep the Senate and lose the House, I believe that’s the most likely outcome right now. But there’s still a realistic chance GOP keeps both. And there’s still ages in political time until the election.

Honestly just keeping the Senate is a win for Trump. Even Reagan never had the luxury of controlling the House; his last two years he lost the Senate too.

 

[SteyrAug]

I really wish the President would open up the "Abe Lincoln Book" on how to deal with sedition. It's time to declare a national emergency, suspend habeas corpus, lock up the scum, convene military courts and do what we elected him to do. Hopefully the Dimmicraps, ANTIFA and other scum would take up arms and we could get on with the Civil War. When I was a kid there were 150 million people in America and it was a great place to grow up (in the Empire State). Now (counting illegals) we have 350 million and it's a mess. My 8th grade math skills tell me we have 200 million we don't need. Time to cull !

 

[GOPerfect]

This guy sucks as much as the next polling group.

I wish I could find the thread from a ways back when we were all talking about the election. Started a couple of days prior to the vote and went a couple of days after.

Some of us here were spot on. Not just with the President, but with the House and Senate races.

Spot on we were.

 

[Twogunwilly]

I give the polls a 50:50 chance of being accurate.

You're way too trusting. Demoncraps will lose many seats.