thughes
.44 mag
HMU once you make your escape from NY.
How Long Would Society Last During a Total Grid Collapse?
- Thread starter livingston
- Start date
I hear ya. I've got people in my circle, same thing. They don't want to listen. Tired of talking.
Tired of people's attitudes because I give a damn, speak my peace and take steps towards preparing for something they just don't see coming. And it's not because I'm something special. It's just because they can't pry their eyes away from the shiny fucking things that have their attention long enough to learn about anything beyond the shiny things.
Yet I'm one of the people they run to when they need something. So guess what happens when SHTF? They'll be clueless, trying to understand, looking for guidance.
FFS you didn't want to listen during the best of times, what is there to make me think you'll listen when it gets bad? FOH not wasting my energy anymore. (hell, sometimes it even exists here to some extent)
And telling them "I told ya so" is no consolation. Not if I have to follow it up with slamming the door in their face.
That will be painful.
Some times I wonder if it's even worth it anymore. (ETA: I meant that in terms of prepping. Not in a red flag kinda way, so don't be swatting my house with a mental hygiene order ya fucking snooping prick agents.)
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I forgot, what part of KY are you in?
Truebeliever
6.5 Creedmoor
NYC? Just 72 hours? Not really . It’s a mixed bag. Some neighborhoods yes, others no. Just a power outage? They had that during Superstorm Sandy. Manhattan below certain streets didn’t have power for days . Some places it was for weeks. Long Island was out for weeks .
A full blast EMP like in the books ? Where cars are down too? That’s a different story .
Truebeliever
6.5 Creedmoor
The earth’s orbit had missed some recently
Earth to Have Third Near-Miss With Solar Eruption in a Week
Solar interference with Earth's magnetic field may spark northern lights over Alaska and Canada.
www.newsweek.com
Close Call: Destructive Solar Blasts Narrowly Missed Earth in 2012
Had they hit, the fierce solar blasts could have badly damaged electrical grids and disabled satellites in space, U.S. researchers say.
www.nbcnews.com
thughes
.44 mag
South of Ohio, north of Tennessee.
spat
.700 Nitro Express
Most cars are actually pretty EMP resistant. Their normal operation has a shit ton of electrical noise, so the electronics are built to be very resistant. They do not have long runs of wiring, and most of it is inside the metal shell.
They're not hardened like a military jet, but most of them would survive even a nuclear or
Carrington event sized EMP. It's likely the computers would crash, and many would stall out, or even not start, but a reboot would likely fix it (i.e. disconnect the battery for half an hour and try again).
The danger is more to the power grid and telecommunication systems, which would be enough to throw civilization into chaos.
Digging up this thread after coming across this article on Miyake events.
spaceweatherarchive.com
A Miyake event imprints a carbon 14 signature into the growth rings of trees, typically from the cosmic rays of severe CMEs. Ice core samples are also used in substantiating the events. A Miyake event makes the Carrington event look small by comparison. I know a lot here are familiar with the Carrington event, but I didn't know about Miyake events and that it was possible to be that much worse. Same thing really just orders of magnitude in difference.
From Wiki: A Miyake event is an observed sharp enhancement of the production of cosmogenic isotopes by cosmic rays. It can be marked by a spike in the concentration of radioactive carbon isotope 14C in tree rings, as well as 10Be and 36Cl in ice cores, which are all independently dated. At present, five significant events are known (7176 BCE, 5259 BCE, 664-663 BCE[1] (historically referred to as 660 BCE), 774 CE, 993 CE) for which the spike in 14
C is quite remarkable, i.e. above 1% rise over a period of two years, and four more events (12,350 BCE,[2] 5410 BCE, 1052 CE, 1279 CE) need independent confirmation. It is not known how often Miyake events occur, but from the available data it is estimated to be every 400 to 2,400 years.[3]
There is strong evidence that Miyake events are caused by extreme solar particle events[4][5] and they are likely related to super-flares discovered on solar-like stars.
Of course timing and position are the determining factors for one of these events, which we've been fortunate enough to not encounter in our fragile hi tech world so far, but eventually it will happen.
I asked Chat GPT: Obviously Earth must be in the path of a severe coronal mass ejection to experience a Miyake event. Are there any coronal mass ejections known to have occurred that would have resulted in a Miyake event if the Earth had been in its path?
Yes, there are several known coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that, if Earth had been in their direct path, could have potentially resulted in a Miyake event. Here are a few notable examples:
Carrington Event (1859): This is one of the most powerful solar storms on record. A massive CME associated with a solar flare struck Earth, causing widespread auroras and disruptions to telegraph systems. If a similar event were to occur today, it could have catastrophic effects on modern technology. The intensity of the Carrington Event suggests that it could have produced a significant increase in carbon-14 levels if it had occurred during a time when such measurements were being taken.
Solar Storms of 1921: Another significant solar storm occurred in May 1921, which caused disruptions to telegraph systems and was associated with a large CME. Similar to the Carrington Event, if Earth had been more directly impacted, it could have resulted in increased cosmic ray exposure and potentially a Miyake event.
Recent Solar Activity: In recent years, there have been several strong solar flares and associated CMEs. For example, in July 2012, a large CME erupted from the Sun but fortunately missed Earth. If it had been directed toward our planet, it could have had significant effects on the atmosphere and technology.
While these events did not result in Miyake events due to their timing and the Earth's position, they illustrate the potential for severe solar activity to impact Earth significantly. The relationship between CMEs and Miyake events highlights the importance of monitoring solar activity to understand the risks associated with extreme solar phenomena.
Just thought it was interesting. Some Star Trek-like magic planetary defense system aside, eventually our tech world is doomed. That or we go underground. Oh well, in the meantime, smoke 'em if ya got 'em.
A Warning From the Trees: Miyake Events
Jan. 30, 2025: (Spaceweather.com) How bad can a solar storm be? Just ask a tree. Unlike human records, which go back hundreds of years, trees can remember solar storms for millennia. Nagoya Univers…
spaceweatherarchive.com
A Miyake event imprints a carbon 14 signature into the growth rings of trees, typically from the cosmic rays of severe CMEs. Ice core samples are also used in substantiating the events. A Miyake event makes the Carrington event look small by comparison. I know a lot here are familiar with the Carrington event, but I didn't know about Miyake events and that it was possible to be that much worse. Same thing really just orders of magnitude in difference.
From Wiki: A Miyake event is an observed sharp enhancement of the production of cosmogenic isotopes by cosmic rays. It can be marked by a spike in the concentration of radioactive carbon isotope 14C in tree rings, as well as 10Be and 36Cl in ice cores, which are all independently dated. At present, five significant events are known (7176 BCE, 5259 BCE, 664-663 BCE[1] (historically referred to as 660 BCE), 774 CE, 993 CE) for which the spike in 14
C is quite remarkable, i.e. above 1% rise over a period of two years, and four more events (12,350 BCE,[2] 5410 BCE, 1052 CE, 1279 CE) need independent confirmation. It is not known how often Miyake events occur, but from the available data it is estimated to be every 400 to 2,400 years.[3]
There is strong evidence that Miyake events are caused by extreme solar particle events[4][5] and they are likely related to super-flares discovered on solar-like stars.
Of course timing and position are the determining factors for one of these events, which we've been fortunate enough to not encounter in our fragile hi tech world so far, but eventually it will happen.
I asked Chat GPT: Obviously Earth must be in the path of a severe coronal mass ejection to experience a Miyake event. Are there any coronal mass ejections known to have occurred that would have resulted in a Miyake event if the Earth had been in its path?
Yes, there are several known coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that, if Earth had been in their direct path, could have potentially resulted in a Miyake event. Here are a few notable examples:
Carrington Event (1859): This is one of the most powerful solar storms on record. A massive CME associated with a solar flare struck Earth, causing widespread auroras and disruptions to telegraph systems. If a similar event were to occur today, it could have catastrophic effects on modern technology. The intensity of the Carrington Event suggests that it could have produced a significant increase in carbon-14 levels if it had occurred during a time when such measurements were being taken.
Solar Storms of 1921: Another significant solar storm occurred in May 1921, which caused disruptions to telegraph systems and was associated with a large CME. Similar to the Carrington Event, if Earth had been more directly impacted, it could have resulted in increased cosmic ray exposure and potentially a Miyake event.
Recent Solar Activity: In recent years, there have been several strong solar flares and associated CMEs. For example, in July 2012, a large CME erupted from the Sun but fortunately missed Earth. If it had been directed toward our planet, it could have had significant effects on the atmosphere and technology.
While these events did not result in Miyake events due to their timing and the Earth's position, they illustrate the potential for severe solar activity to impact Earth significantly. The relationship between CMEs and Miyake events highlights the importance of monitoring solar activity to understand the risks associated with extreme solar phenomena.
Just thought it was interesting. Some Star Trek-like magic planetary defense system aside, eventually our tech world is doomed. That or we go underground. Oh well, in the meantime, smoke 'em if ya got 'em.
spat
.700 Nitro Express
Since the thread was resurrected, I think the recent grid collapse in Spain is probably the most interesting related event.
I think it demonstrates that it's not how long the power has been out for that matters.
It's how long people think it will be before it comes up.
Power's down for a week, but everyone expects it to be back "soon", most areas will muddle through.
But even if it's just down 24 hours, but people *expect* it to stay down for a very long time, then things get sporty real quick.
I think it demonstrates that it's not how long the power has been out for that matters.
It's how long people think it will be before it comes up.
Power's down for a week, but everyone expects it to be back "soon", most areas will muddle through.
But even if it's just down 24 hours, but people *expect* it to stay down for a very long time, then things get sporty real quick.
Jmac00
.475 A&M Magnum
it's the kids that will revolt first. If they can't charge those cell phone, billions of parents will be demanding answers as to when the power will be back 
livingston
20×102mm Vulcan
with no cell phone service no need for a chargerit's the kids that will revolt first. If they can't charge those cell phone, billions of parents will be demanding answers as to when the power will be back
Society will last for as long as the belief that "things will return to normal"
You'll get an immediate slight bump in crimes of opportunity by assholes who exploit a situation. But the remaining normies will all behave until they come to their own conclusions that "things are not going back to normal" then the panic sets in and they start justifying taking actions out of character
Robin
.577 Tyrannosaur.
Probably depends on where you are. Inner city, hours, rural country, days, depending on the ripple effect of the urban collapse.
Robin
Robin
JaguarJaguarGolf
6.5 Creedmoor
We did not have an emergency generator when my now grown children lived here. We use to lose electrical power quite regularly, and sometimes for a week or so. Now I have one that supplies almost the whole house. ($8000 total w/switch/inspection/electrician installed).
We have a fireplace insert, and I refuse to live anywhere without one. We survived by cooking on the insert, and 2x the outside temperature was Zero F and the whole house never went below 62 F.
Now none of my children, who all own their own homes, has a wood stove in their house. The daughter in the Netherlands just removed a fireplace and chimney in a house that survived two World Wars. "It took up too much room". One lives near Rochester and has beaucoup in-laws nearby. The other lives down south and can at least cook outside.
There is no saying you wouldn't be able to do it until you have to.
We have a fireplace insert, and I refuse to live anywhere without one. We survived by cooking on the insert, and 2x the outside temperature was Zero F and the whole house never went below 62 F.
Now none of my children, who all own their own homes, has a wood stove in their house. The daughter in the Netherlands just removed a fireplace and chimney in a house that survived two World Wars. "It took up too much room". One lives near Rochester and has beaucoup in-laws nearby. The other lives down south and can at least cook outside.
There is no saying you wouldn't be able to do it until you have to.
Saltwater60
.950 JDJ
I have thought pretty hard about this honestly. Most people around me aren’t prepared and no one I know is as prepared as I am. My FIL has a lot of guns and ammo but no food. My parents have a lot of food but no protection.
I figure almost everyone around me will be dead in 30 days or less. I’ll bet around half won’t make it 2 weeks and the remaining won’t make it the other two weeks.
I have food for around 30-days but would like to bolster this a bit more. I have water tablets, water filters, and iodine for treating water so I am fine there. Guns, yep, ammo good but could use more always. I need a better secondary heat source honestly.
I figure almost everyone around me will be dead in 30 days or less. I’ll bet around half won’t make it 2 weeks and the remaining won’t make it the other two weeks.
I have food for around 30-days but would like to bolster this a bit more. I have water tablets, water filters, and iodine for treating water so I am fine there. Guns, yep, ammo good but could use more always. I need a better secondary heat source honestly.
My plan if I ever needed it, would be to try and make a micro climate and try to kinda seal off my family room where I have a wood burning fireplace to retain as much heat as possible in a small area. If the rest of the house ends up at 30 degrees but a smaller living/sleeping area is 50-60 that would not be the worst scenario.
I have always liked these conversations. My eyes are opened up more and more every time I read through comments, not just here on the forum but other places as well.
So many think that if they have food, guns and a place to lay ones head, all is good.
The reason I do not believe many would make it is due to not having the correct mindset.
The real ability to do what would need to be done. The unspeakable kinds of things to survive. Being able to turn off all empathy and sympathy in order to survive long term.
All the food, guns and ammo.... No good if you are forced out of your comfort zone....
Nah, not many will be able to those things that we do not speak of.
So many think that if they have food, guns and a place to lay ones head, all is good.
The reason I do not believe many would make it is due to not having the correct mindset.
The real ability to do what would need to be done. The unspeakable kinds of things to survive. Being able to turn off all empathy and sympathy in order to survive long term.
All the food, guns and ammo.... No good if you are forced out of your comfort zone....
Nah, not many will be able to those things that we do not speak of.
OwnTheRide
.223 Rem
Make sure you have a winter's worth of dried and seasoned firewood to go along with that plan. It will be too late to harvest it when SHTF... no gas for chainsaws, splitters, tractors, and vehicles to move the wood around; plus competition and exposure for standing dead wood. Someone could easily locate and sneak up on you trying to harvest wood, wait for you to cut it, then snipe your ass and take the wood.
Purely hypothetical...
On that topic....
2 weeks in
All comms are down, grid is down, no news, rumors of EMP or ww3 or something major has occurred. You're expecting true SHTF. Like worst case scenario, no help is coming. You're on your own.
You have meth heads up the road, who in good times you keep a close eye on them, Now with the likely event of no rule of law to keep them in check and them likely running out of drugs you know they are likely to become unpredictable. Do you "proactively" eliminate the risk of a problem?
These are thought provoking questions. At what point do you totally change your thinking and flip a switch. In a SHTF world you may have to make pro active decisions that you would not anticipate and would not be comfortable with. I know someone here has a bad druggie as an across the street neighbor. That's a huge risk in a true you're on your own SHTF no help is coming, things are not going back to normal anytime soon.
Sometimes being defensive isn't only purely defensive. I'm not saying go steal from Grandma, but if there a know character who very very likely is going to be a problem that's something to think about and you might logically get to an uncomfortable place in your decision making.
Purely hypothetical for storytelling and fictional discussions of course
I have the mindset to do anything and everything that I may need to do to survive. Nothing for me would be off the table. The Meth heads would not need to be concerned about surviving long term in a EMP situation if they lived near me.
Hell, I would not find it to be acceptable for them to be near me in good times.
Saltwater60
.950 JDJ
At that point anyone entering property is a threat. I know the mindset you speak of and you’re right many don’t have it. Leaving others to die of starvation or worse could be hard but you have to pick and choose who is in your circle. I have family who will not make it in my circle and that might be an issue but it’s 6 mouths to feed with not a single good addition to the camp so why would I? They also complain so much they would have a huge negative impact on moral.
Picking and choosing who gets resources and who doesn't will be difficult. I am trying mentally make the determination now that those who aren't working on it today have already made their choices and their fate is not my responsibility.
Every meal I give to a person like that who offers no value in return is one less meal for my family. And the end result for that charity meal will still be the same just prolonged another day while harming my family in the process
Saltwater60
.950 JDJ
Yes, and this would be 6 mouths to feed with zero benefit in return. Their one son can fish but that’s about the only benefit I’d see. Their only negative would be that my parents would probably go with them and bring their food stores. I’m fully aware of that and expecting that and that’s life. I have others that are more valuable to me.
The more replies that I read here, the more I think of complete failure.
I figure I'll be alive as long as God wants it that way...do the best with what you've been provided with.
Indeed
Robin
.577 Tyrannosaur.
Assuming virtually all communication is down, maybe short wave is still functional, People will have to make decisions based on their own wits, some maybe even life and death. That will be interesting in the land of newyorkification where so many rely on government, and by extension big media, to tell them how and what to think.
Robin
Robin
spat
.700 Nitro Express
Don't underestimate how much menial labor will be necessary.
It doesn't take long to train someone to split firewood for instance.
Now, if these are the sort of people who would refuse to do that, then they may change their mind when they get hungry enough.
spat
.700 Nitro Express
One of my main concerns is making my place not appear to be comfortable from a distance.
You don't want to be one of the few houses with lights still on at night a week after the collapse.
And an open or smoky fire is like a beacon saying "someone's home"