Things are heating up in the Donbass

Drinkthekoolaid

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Is this the event that finally is a real red line in the sand that Russia takes substantial action against the west?

I think if Putin had considered a tactical nuke previously in 2022 or 23 then he has to be under considerable internal pressure to push the button to show the weather he's not Fing around and willing to tolerate this anymore.

I can see Russia starting to shoot down ISR aircraft and drones operating along its borders. I can see them claiming they are justified to strike western weapon factories and support.

Think about it this way, what Ukraine just did Russia can no longer afford to use their strategic bombers as cruise missile trucks anymore. They forced Russia to alter their tactics. Russia has a few options and they are all going to be considerably more destructive than an air launched cruise missile.

IMO Putin has to save face here and in order to prevent inviting future similar attacks by showing weaknesses and a lack of a response he almost has to over compensate and show Ukraine and the west MAKE MISTAKE, DO NOT PULL THAT AGAIN.

Imagine having this released
And then mere days later 30%+ of your strategic bombers capabilities are lost.


I'm completely expecting a massive cyber attack, attack on West/NATO support being used to kill Russians, or an actual EMP or nuclear strike somewhere. A low yield KT airburst over Ukraine would send the message.

Russias strategic posture has been altered and significantly degraded. They cannot allow that to go unanswered.
 
spat

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Drinkthekoolaid said:
Is this the event that finally is a real red line in the sand that Russia takes substantial action against the west?

I think if Putin had considered a tactical nuke previously in 2022 or 23 then he has to be under considerable internal pressure to push the button to show the weather he's not Fing around and willing to tolerate this anymore.

I can see Russia starting to shoot down ISR aircraft and drones operating along its borders. I can see them claiming they are justified to strike western weapon factories and support.

Think about it this way, what Ukraine just did Russia can no longer afford to use their strategic bombers as cruise missile trucks anymore. They forced Russia to alter their tactics. Russia has a few options and they are all going to be considerably more destructive than an air launched cruise missile.

IMO Putin has to save face here and in order to prevent inviting future similar attacks by showing weaknesses and a lack of a response he almost has to over compensate and show Ukraine and the west MAKE MISTAKE, DO NOT PULL THAT AGAIN.

Imagine having this released
And then mere days later 30%+ of your strategic bombers capabilities are lost.


I'm completely expecting a massive cyber attack, attack on West/NATO support being used to kill Russians, or an actual EMP or nuclear strike somewhere. A low yield KT airburst over Ukraine would send the message.

Russias strategic posture has been altered and significantly degraded. They cannot allow that to go unanswered.
Click to expand...
I don't agree.

Russia has very limited options available. They have backed themselves into a corner.

They can escalate against NATO, but do they *really* want to do that ?

Russia is already running all out with their conventional forces they don't have anything else to bring to bear. NATO hasn't even really entered the fight yet.

If NATO entered the fight, even half heartedly with an air only campaign, the Russian forces would collapse within a week, 2 at the most.

A few days of SEAD, then anything with an engine is fair game.

The only other option Russia has is the nuclear one. If they go there, then NATO has no choice but to eliminate Russia's nuclear capability in the fastest, most direct method available.

They cannot be allowed to continue to possess a single nuke after using one in Ukraine, and everyone in NATO knows it.
 
Mosinitis

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spat said:
I don't agree.

Russia has very limited options available. They have backed themselves into a corner.

They can escalate against NATO, but do they *really* want to do that ?

Russia is already running all out with their conventional forces they don't have anything else to bring to bear. NATO hasn't even really entered the fight yet.

If NATO entered the fight, even half heartedly with an air only campaign, the Russian forces would collapse within a week, 2 at the most.

A few days of SEAD, then anything with an engine is fair game.

The only other option Russia has is the nuclear one. If they go there, then NATO has no choice but to eliminate Russia's nuclear capability in the fastest, most direct method available.

They cannot be allowed to continue to possess a single nuke after using one in Ukraine, and everyone in NATO knows it.
Click to expand...

Taliban would disagree with your assessment of NATO.
 
Mosinitis

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spat said:
Yes, the only way to beat NATO is to hide for 20 years until they get bored and leave.

The difference in Ukraine is that Russia is the invader. They can't hide in some Ukranian caves for 20 years and then emerge to claim victory LOL.
Click to expand...

Western countries will not submit their troops to the same casualty rates as Ukraine or Russia, especially when they are not invaded.
 
spat

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Mosinitis said:
Western countries will not submit their troops to the same casualty rates as Ukraine or Russia, especially when they are not invaded.
Click to expand...
Why would they have to ?

If NATO gets involved it would likely look like the initial stage of Desert Storm with an overwhelming air assault.

I'm sure there would be a few NATO casualties, but nothing like what Ukraine or Russia are experiencing.

And once Russia is down to dismounted infantry, I am sure the Ukrainians can handle them by themselves.

You seem to have this really weird idea that Russia presents some sort of peer for NATO.

There are a few individual *members* of NATO that would be a peer for Russia, but just the smaller ones.

Poland could probably kick Russia out of Ukraine all by themselves by the end of summer.
 
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First the cliff notes version: There’s an important detail to remember. People are laughing at the long-range Russian bombers being left out in the open, vulnerable to attack. However, the bomber visibility is required as part of several nuclear agreements between the USA and Russia (SALT and START). Our U.S. long range nuclear capable bombers, covered under the same agreements, are also visible.​

Ukraine President Zelenskyy is playing with fire by targeting them, which also explains why Zelenskyy never told President Trump in advance.
The U.S and NATO have provided the means. However, #1) did Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy just exploit a vulnerability by targeting Russian long-range nuclear capable bombers? and #2) was the CIA and NATO intelligence community a willfully blind participant knowing they would benefit?


theconservativetreehouse.com

Zelensky's Gauntlet - Did Ukraine Just Draw the USA and NATO Closer to War with Russia by Targeting Russian Strategic Long-Range Bombers Covered by SALT and START Treaties? - The Last Refuge

First the cliff notes version: There’s an important detail to remember. People are laughing at the long-range Russian bombers being left out in the open, vulnerable to attack. However, the bomber visibility is required as part of several nuclear agreements between the USA and Russia (SALT and...
theconservativetreehouse.com theconservativetreehouse.com
 
Drinkthekoolaid

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livingston said:

First the cliff notes version: There’s an important detail to remember. People are laughing at the long-range Russian bombers being left out in the open, vulnerable to attack. However, the bomber visibility is required as part of several nuclear agreements between the USA and Russia (SALT and START). Our U.S. long range nuclear capable bombers, covered under the same agreements, are also visible.​

Ukraine President Zelenskyy is playing with fire by targeting them, which also explains why Zelenskyy never told President Trump in advance.
The U.S and NATO have provided the means. However, #1) did Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy just exploit a vulnerability by targeting Russian long-range nuclear capable bombers? and #2) was the CIA and NATO intelligence community a willfully blind participant knowing they would benefit?


theconservativetreehouse.com

Zelensky's Gauntlet - Did Ukraine Just Draw the USA and NATO Closer to War with Russia by Targeting Russian Strategic Long-Range Bombers Covered by SALT and START Treaties? - The Last Refuge

First the cliff notes version: There’s an important detail to remember. People are laughing at the long-range Russian bombers being left out in the open, vulnerable to attack. However, the bomber visibility is required as part of several nuclear agreements between the USA and Russia (SALT and...
theconservativetreehouse.com theconservativetreehouse.com
Click to expand...


100%.

Anyone cheering this attack on is obtuse and cannot see the big picture. It's terrible for global stability. Russia justifiably so is upping their nuclear posture because it really is under attack. We would be doing the same thing if we just lost 30% of our strategic bombers.
 
prambo

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livingston said:

First the cliff notes version: There’s an important detail to remember. People are laughing at the long-range Russian bombers being left out in the open, vulnerable to attack. However, the bomber visibility is required as part of several nuclear agreements between the USA and Russia (SALT and START). Our U.S. long range nuclear capable bombers, covered under the same agreements, are also visible.​

Ukraine President Zelenskyy is playing with fire by targeting them, which also explains why Zelenskyy never told President Trump in advance.
The U.S and NATO have provided the means. However, #1) did Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy just exploit a vulnerability by targeting Russian long-range nuclear capable bombers? and #2) was the CIA and NATO intelligence community a willfully blind participant knowing they would benefit?


theconservativetreehouse.com

Zelensky's Gauntlet - Did Ukraine Just Draw the USA and NATO Closer to War with Russia by Targeting Russian Strategic Long-Range Bombers Covered by SALT and START Treaties? - The Last Refuge

First the cliff notes version: There’s an important detail to remember. People are laughing at the long-range Russian bombers being left out in the open, vulnerable to attack. However, the bomber visibility is required as part of several nuclear agreements between the USA and Russia (SALT and...
theconservativetreehouse.com theconservativetreehouse.com
Click to expand...

Was just gonna post the same thing.

NATO took advantage of provisions of two agreements between the USA and Russia to target these bombers.

Let's be blunt and try and see through the constant wrangling on this thread - if anyone did that to our B-52s they'd have the hammer dropped on them.

So Russia just has to eat the big falota because...Russians?????!!!

Bullshit!!!!!!!!!!! That's national sovereignty for me, but not for thee.

Keep a watch out for a false flag op on our B-52s, some of which are now deployed to Spain and Diego Garcia.

B-52s Kick Off Bomber Deployment to Spain

If anyone thinks Starmer, Macron and Merz, as well as all the EU shitweasels aren't bat-shit crazy enough to pull a false flag to kick off WWIII and drag the fUSA into it, then you haven't been paying attention.

And Trump is presently displaying a level of stupidity that will make it easy for him join Europe. We should be out of NATO and the UN by now.

Europe is circling the drain like so many turds, both financially and culturally, and only war can keep them afloat, at least according to some. IMHO, if WWIII starts you'll see Muslim uprisings all over Europe to install the Caliphate. Europe let in too many kisalamus and that will bite them in the ass.
 
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spat

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prambo said:
Was just gonna post the same thing.

NATO took advantage of provisions of two agreements between the USA and Russia to target these bombers.

Let's be blunt and try and see through the constant wrangling on this thread - if anyone did that to our B-52s they'd have the hammer dropped on them.

So Russia just has to eat the big falota because...Russians?????!!!

Bullshit!!!!!!!!!!! That's national sovereignty for me, but not for thee.

Keep a watch out for a false flag op on our B-52s, some of which are now deployed to Spain and Diego Garcia.

B-52s Kick Off Bomber Deployment to Spain

If anyone thinks Starmer, Macron and Merz, as well as all the EU shitweasels aren't bat-shit crazy enough to pull a false flag to kick off WWIII and drag the fUSA into it, then you haven't been paying attention.

And Trump is presently displaying a level of stupidity that will make it easy for him join Europe. We should be out of NATO and the UN by now.

Europe is circling the drain like so many turds, both financially and culturally, and only war can keep them afloat, at least according to some. IMHO, if WWIII starts you'll see Muslim uprisings all over Europe to install the Caliphate. Europe let in too many kisalamus and that will bite them in the ass.
Click to expand...
Russia just has to eat it because they already dropped all the hammer they have.

That's it. That's the only reason.

Yep, someone did that to us and we would obliterate them. Because we can.

If someone did that to Yemen, or Somalia they wouldn't do shit because they can't do shit. It's the same for Russia.



Now, want to really scare the shit out of them ?
Imagine instead of immediately attacking, these just flew near their nuclear installations and hid while carrying some short range SAM capable if taking out a missile immediately after launch when it's most vulnerable.

Then you could launch a conventional attack to take out all the silos and mobile launchers, and if any were launched they would be taken out immediately by the hidden drones.

Complete elimination of the Russia nuclear arsenal with zero civilian casualties.

What would the Russian response to that be ? Nothing, because they can do nothing.

Now, the Chinese would sure as hell take notice. I'm sure it would scare the absolute shit out of them. But I think it would reset the global power balance back to the 90s when the ass whupping of desert storm was fresh in everyone's minds.
 
Robin

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If I had to look at the Ukrainian drone raid as a whole, say a foot print, like looking at a DNA helix, i couldn't name an individual but it sure looks Israeli to me. Not to take anything away from the Ukrainians, their resistance has been courageous and masterful especially when we look back to the initial onset with Vlad the Mads' forces going for the jugular in Kiev and getting cut off at the knees. God bless those brave and heroic fighters. But all in all, it sure doesn't look Ukrainian to me.
Robin
 
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Drinkthekoolaid

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I would expect Russia to retaliate very shortly.

It sounds like Putin and Trump just spoke on the phone And I'm sure some of it was formality with Putin explaining why he's about to do what he going to do and to give Trump notice that something is coming.

With that formality out of the way I expect Russia to make a statement that they won't tolerate their nuclear triad being targeted.
 
Mosinitis

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I don' t think Putin would telegraph any retaliation plan even if he trusted Trump, which I doubt.

Did Trump know and approved Ukrainian attacks on Russia's strategic bombers?
Opinions are split.
 
Drinkthekoolaid

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Mosinitis said:
I don' t think Putin would telegraph any retaliation plan even if he trusted Trump, which I doubt.

Did Trump know and approved Ukrainian attacks on Russia's strategic bombers?
Opinions are split.
Click to expand...


I absolutely think Putin would give a heads up to Trump if he was going to do something big. You don't want any misinterpreting of events or threats.

Not in specific operational details but in generalities


Putin (probably)- Yo Trump, not cool. Ukraine F'd around now they're going to find out. You wouldn't let your strategic bombers be taken out and not respond. I am going to make it hurt for them not to pull that shit again and if NATO/west is helping them degrade my strategic bombers to tip the balance of power then any NATO/western assets providing Intel for Ukraine is going to be a direct party to the conflict.

Trump - take it easy there vlad. Don't go all drunken Nancy pelosi on the US leave us out of this.

Putin- stay out of this. Not your fight. Expect something big and you better let it go without too much of a fuss. Hey let's talk about Iran for a minute..
.
 
spat

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Drinkthekoolaid said:
I absolutely think Putin would give a heads up to Trump if he was going to do something big. You don't want any misinterpreting of events or threats.

Not in specific operational details but in generalities


Putin (probably)- Yo Trump, not cool. Ukraine F'd around now they're going to find out. You wouldn't let your strategic bombers be taken out and not respond. I am going to make it hurt for them not to pull that shit again and if NATO/west is helping them degrade my strategic bombers to tip the balance of power then any NATO/western assets providing Intel for Ukraine is going to be a direct party to the conflict.

Trump - take it easy there vlad. Don't go all drunken Nancy pelosi on the US leave us out of this.

Putin- stay out of this. Not your fight. Expect something big and you better let it go without too much of a fuss. Hey let's talk about Iran for a minute..
.
Click to expand...
But, after 3 years of full scale war, what "retaliation" is Putin going to do ?

Yet another offensive that's doomed to stall out ?

Launch a nuke ?

He's all in. He has been all in for 3 years. There's no more escalation to be had.
 
TEOTWAWKI inc.

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Robin said:
If I had to look at the Ukrainian drone raid as a whole, say a foot print, like looking at a DNA helix, i couldn't name an individual but it sure looks Israeli to me. Not to take anything away from the Ukrainians, their resistance has been courageous and masterful especially when we look back to the initial onset with Vlad the Mads' forces going for the jugular in Kiev and getting cut off at the knees. God bless those brave and heroic fighters. But all in all, it sure doesn't look Ukrainian to me.
Robin
Click to expand...
Israel was my first thought as well.
 
Drinkthekoolaid

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spat said:
But, after 3 years of full scale war, what "retaliation" is Putin going to do ?

Yet another offensive that's doomed to stall out ?

Launch a nuke ?

He's all in. He has been all in for 3 years. There's no more escalation to be had.
Click to expand...

He has not gone all in. He's still trying to exercise some restraint. He could start targeting civilian infrastructure like bridges, water treatment, power plants etc...

He could set off a nuke...

Could launch a cyber attack...

Who knows. Russia absolutely has a bloody nose, but they're far from exercising all their capabilities.
 
spat

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Drinkthekoolaid said:
He has not gone all in. He's still trying to exercise some restraint. He could start targeting civilian infrastructure like bridges, water treatment, power plants etc...

He could set off a nuke...

Could launch a cyber attack...

Who knows. Russia absolutely has a bloody nose, but they're far from exercising all their capabilities.
Click to expand...
They've blown up plenty of civilian infrastructure.

en.m.wikipedia.org

Russian strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure (2022–present) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

None of that would be new, so not an escalation.

Cyberattacks from Russia are pretty much continuous. It would be major news if they stopped. No option for escalation there either.

So, that leaves Nukes. He could go there. It would obviously be a major escalation.

But it would force NATO to escalate as well, and in a way that would utterly destroy Russia's ability to wage war.

The *last* thing Russia wants in this war is escalation. They are all in except the nukes. The west is treating it like a petty squabble they're barely involved in.

Trump *really* wants a peaceful end to the war. He would love that to be one of the crowning achievements of his second term.

But, yank that rug out from under him by nuking Kiev or something and I strongly suspect Putin's days are numbered.
 
Mosinitis

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Israel doesn't have their own problems to deal with, they needed to attack Russia? Israel doesn't even participate in sanctions, much less staging attacks against Russia.
BTW, none of the Russian pundits are blaming Israel.
 
spat

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Mosinitis said:
Israel doesn't have their own problems to deal with, they needed to attack Russia? Israel doesn't even participate in sanctions, much less staging attacks against Russia.
BTW, none of the Russian pundits are blaming Israel.
Click to expand...
It's certainly Isreal's style.

But I agree with you, this isn't a case of Isreal helping. This is a case of Ukraine saying "those Isrealis know their shit, what's something they would do".
 
Mosinitis

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There are two million Ukrainians who fled to Russia since 2014 and both countries also have many family ties from Soviet era. It's a fertile ground for sabotage, spying and terrorism. A nightmare for FSB.
 
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Operation Spider’s Web: How Russians Were Tricked Into Bombing Themselves​


Operation Spider’s Web was a breakthrough in Ukraine’s campaign of deep strikes—an operation that combined sabotage logistics, deception, and local infiltration to stunning effect. With 117 drones launched from within Russian borders, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) turned the illusion of Russian interior security into a battlefield vulnerability.
Ukraine bypassed airspace, borders, and radar. It used Russia’s own civilian infrastructure to stage one of the most damaging attacks on the Kremlin’s strategic assets since the war began.

kyivinsider.com

Operation Spider’s Web: How Russians Were Tricked Into Bombing Themselves

Russian investigators have made public what they've managed to put together about yesterday's historic Ukrainian drone operation that destroyed 41 Russian aircraft
kyivinsider.com kyivinsider.com
 
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