Things are heating up in the Donbass

spat

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holdover said:
the reaction would the same as it for a tomahawk launch, they would assume the missile is nuclear and respond while its still in the air , there is no way to know if its a nuke or not. thats thier present doctrine on certain weapon systems, which is why Ukraine doesn't have tomahawks or other nuclear capable systems
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That's obviously false.

The list of "nuclear capable" weapons systems is huge. They may not be officially certified, but Ukraine DGAF about what's certified.

We had nuclear artillery at one point.

You can drop a B61 from nearly anything that flys. You could strap one to a Cessna in about 20 mins if you wanted.

That doctrine really only applies to ICBMs and SLBMs. And even then, a lone launch isn't going to be responded to with a full nuclear response.
 
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holdover said:
I dont doubt thier ability and know how, Im just saying they are in the middle of a serious war, they lack the cash and if Russia gets wind of it they are going to make a special project out it . If the russians blew the lab up after spending all that money its going to be a real kick in the shorts, I dont think they would risk it myself. Not impossible, but under the present conditions unlikely.
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They already *have* the expensive infrastructure. It's not a cash issue for them.

And they wouldn't need to let a lot of people in on the plan until they were ready to conduct the final testing.

A few people who run the reactor would need to know, and some more high level scientists. But the plutonium route *once you have the reactor* is no where near as industry intensive as a uranium route.

Ukraine already has multiple suitable research reactors.
 
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Trump is going to fuck this meeting up with Putin big league. The Russians will not negotiate thier national security period. they made that perfectly clear 3 years ago. Zlensky wont allow Russia to keep its land. this meeting is DOA
 
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holdover said:
Trump is going to fuck this meeting up with Putin big league. The Russians will not negotiate thier national security period. they made that perfectly clear 3 years ago. Zlensky wont allow Russia to keep its land. this meeting is DOA
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You're not wrong about the meeting being DOA.

But I'm not sure how forcing NATO to get involved is in Russia's national security interest.

NATO has made it clear they're not going to let him continue to plunder Ukraine's sovereign territory. The harder he pushes the more foreign equipment (and eventually troops) he's going to have on his border.

If he pushes too hard he's going to cause a collapse of the Russian military and economy, again.

You have to try the negotiation before you decide who has to get to get their ass kicked. I can't fault Trump for that.

Trump isn't going to get what he wants (a nice clean peace deal to brag about). That's for sure.

But both Putin and Zelensky are the ones to really need to tread carefully here. Their words are going to decide how Trump reacts to the failure.

This could go very badly for either of them.
 
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I'm probably wrong but I'm cautiously optimistic about the summit. Trump has been sending an emissary over to talk to Putin and the Russians for months. I doubt they would have scheduled this if there wasn't already something agreed to in the preliminary negotiations. But perhaps this is Trump's way of giving putin one last chance at peace.
 
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tirwin1 said:
I'm probably wrong but I'm cautiously optimistic about the summit. Trump has been sending an emissary over to talk to Putin and the Russians for months. I doubt they would have scheduled this if there wasn't already something agreed to in the preliminary negotiations. But perhaps this is Trump's way of giving putin one last chance at peace.
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What can Trump offer?
 
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spat said:
NATO has made it clear they're not going to let him continue to plunder Ukraine's sovereign territory. The harder he pushes the more foreign equipment (and eventually troops) he's going to have on his border.
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You think NATO is going to jump in and start WW3 for Ukraine? They would have done it already
spat said:
If he pushes too hard he's going to cause a collapse of the Russian military and economy, again.
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Thats exactly what they thought would happen before the war , NATO thought it could break Russia economically . the plan failed and they are standing there with their dicks in their hands.
spat said:
Trump isn't going to get what he wants (a nice clean peace deal to brag about). That's for sure.
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Thats correct, He cant stop aid to Ukraine without losing credibility with US allies, Taiwan for instance, the credibility of the US is at stake with its allies if she pulls out when the going gets tough. on the other hand Ukraine is losing the war and its not a simple question of money and weapons . More money and more weapons wont reverse the course of the war , its throwing good money after bad. Trumps only course of action to save face with the allies and the public is to work out a deal or make it look like he worked out a deal . Zelensky wants no part of it If he signs a deal givng Russia parts of Ukraine. the Ukraine army or elements with in the army and government will flat out kill him .SO any deal relinquishing parts of Ukraine is a non starter for Ukraine, any deal not relinquishing parts of Ukraine is a non starter for Russia,
Hence the deal is DOA.
 
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holdover said:
You think NATO is going to jump in and start WW3 for Ukraine? They would have done it already

Thats exactly what they thought would happen before the war , NATO thought it could break Russia economically . the plan failed and they are standing there with their dicks in their hands.


Thats correct, He cant stop aid to Ukraine without losing credibility with US allies, Taiwan for instance, the credibility of the US is at stake with its allies if she pulls out when the going gets tough. on the other hand Ukraine is losing the war and its not a simple question of money and weapons . More money and more weapons wont reverse the course of the war , its throwing good money after bad. Trumps only course of action to save face with the allies and the public is to work out a deal or make it look like he worked out a deal . Zelensky wants no part of it If he signs a deal givng Russia parts of Ukraine. the Ukraine army or elements with in the army and government will flat out kill him .SO any deal relinquishing parts of Ukraine is a non starter for Ukraine, any deal not relinquishing parts of Ukraine is a non starter for Russia,
Hence the deal is DOA.
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You seriously understand estimate the capabilities of NATO and overestimate the capabilities of Russia.

And while Europe DGAF about Ukraine, they can't allow Russia to keep gobbling up their neighbors either.

There is no WWIII coming. Russia vs NATO is not WWIII. It's a regional war in Europe that would end Russia.

Who do you think would jump in on Russia's side to turn this into a world war ? China ? They're far more likely to take advantage and just gobble up the eastern half of Russia while they can.

You may be thinking that China would try to make their move on Taiwain while NATO is distracted, but I think the whole war in Europe would be over so fast, and the curb stomping Russia would get would so severe as to put any notions of a move on Taiwain to rest very quickly.

As I have said before, Russia can bluster about nuclear war all they want, but they better hope nobody takes them seriously. Because as soon as NATO thinks they aren't bluffing is when their nuclear capability will be eliminated, along with any of their conventional forces that get in the way.

Russia doesn't have the capacity to do anything about it any more than Iran did.
 
GOPerfect

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spat said:
You're not wrong about the meeting being DOA.

But I'm not sure how forcing NATO to get involved is in Russia's national security interest.

NATO has made it clear they're not going to let him continue to plunder Ukraine's sovereign territory. The harder he pushes the more foreign equipment (and eventually troops) he's going to have on his border.

If he pushes too hard he's going to cause a collapse of the Russian military and economy, again.

You have to try the negotiation before you decide who has to get to get their ass kicked. I can't fault Trump for that.

Trump isn't going to get what he wants (a nice clean peace deal to brag about). That's for sure.

But both Putin and Zelensky are the ones to really need to tread carefully here. Their words are going to decide how Trump reacts to the failure.

This could go very badly for either of them.
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NATO wants this war to go on and on so they can Plunder the Ukraine.

They do not care about those people, not at all.

They have never cared for them or the country except what they could take out of it.

NATO is not the noble saviors.
 
GOPerfect

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spat said:
You seriously understand estimate the capabilities of NATO and overestimate the capabilities of Russia.

And while Europe DGAF about Ukraine, they can't allow Russia to keep gobbling up their neighbors either.

There is no WWIII coming. Russia vs NATO is not WWIII. It's a regional war in Europe that would end Russia.

Who do you think would jump in on Russia's side to turn this into a world war ? China ? They're far more likely to take advantage and just gobble up the eastern half of Russia while they can.

You may be thinking that China would try to make their move on Taiwain while NATO is distracted, but I think the whole war in Europe would be over so fast, and the curb stomping Russia would get would so severe as to put any notions of a move on Taiwain to rest very quickly.

As I have said before, Russia can bluster about nuclear war all they want, but they better hope nobody takes them seriously. Because as soon as NATO thinks they aren't bluffing is when their nuclear capability will be eliminated, along with any of their conventional forces that get in the way.

Russia doesn't have the capacity to do anything about it any more than Iran did.
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NATO WILL NEVER ATTACK RUSSIA!
 
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GOPerfect said:
NATO wants this war to go on and on so they can Plunder the Ukraine.

They do not care about those people, not at all.

They have never cared for them or the country except what they could take out of it.

NATO is not the noble saviors.
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You're not wrong.

But, that doesn't bode well for Russia.

NATO can end this war anytime they want, and they can pick who wins at will.

You think they're going to pick Russia ?

Most of them would spoon feed Ukraine just enough to survive for the next decade if they can get away with it. What do you think Russia would look like then ?

This was absolutely a trap laid by Biden and the grifters to siphon tax money to their own accounts. Putin stepped right into it.

A plucky spirit and fatalistic demeanor aren't going to be enough to save russia here. Both NATO and Zelensky are willing to fight to the last Ukrainian and Russian. They could very well get their way.
 
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GOPerfect said:
NATO WILL NEVER ATTACK RUSSIA!
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Directly ? Probably not. Unless Russia makes the mistake of striking NATO first.

But if things start going badly for Ukraine, you'd be surprised how much NATO can ramp things up.

There's lots of precedent. Ever hear of the American Volunteer Group ? Better known as the "flying tigers".

The modern version would be NATO "loaning" a few hundred F35s to Ukraine, along with enough cash to pay salaries for a few thousand pilots and maintenance personnel for those planes.

And a bunch of USAF pilots and support personnel resign their commissions and enlist with Ukraine on the same day those planes are delivered.

We've done it before.

What does Russia do then ? Bomb an airbase in Germany or Poland before they leave ? That's a sure fire death sentence.
 
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spat said:
What does Russia do then ? Bomb an airbase in Germany or Poland before they leave ? That's a sure fire death sesentence.
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What choice would they have?you backed them into a cornor.really think they would just take their ball and go home?nato tried to implement a no fly zone, but realized it would escalate to nukes.if they could get away with it they would have done it,they recently did it with f16s in smaller numbers, but had little effect so far
 
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holdover said:
What choice would they have?you backed them into a cornor.really think they would just take their ball and go home?nato tried to implement a no fly zone, but realized it would escalate to nukes.if they could get away with it they would have done it,they recently did it with f16s in smaller numbers, but had little effect so far
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Russia has always had the choice to just go home.

They can do that any time they want.

The fact that they're too stupid to do it doesn't change that.

NATO in Ukraine is not a threat to Russia. You know what *is* a threat to Russia ? The Golden Dome system that Trump is calling for.

It's basically the same thing Reagan wanted in the 80s, except now the technology is there to do it easily.

Musk has put 6000 starlink satellites in orbit *without* government backing.

Imagine if those were basically SM-6 interceptors instead. Then Russia's nuclear threat evaporates. They'd have to fed-ex in a bomb the way a terrorist group does.

Now *that's* a major threat to Russia. It would effectively neutralize their entire nuclear capability.

What are they going to do, bomb Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg when Musk starts launching the satellites ?
 
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spat said:
Russia has always had the choice to just go home.
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spat said:
Russia has always had the choice to just go home.

They can do that any time they want.
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Sure they ""could"" but they have no intention of doing so.
spat said:
NATO in Ukraine is not a threat to Russia. You know what *is* a threat to Russia ? The Golden Dome system that Trump is calling for.
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Ill tell the Russians you said that,Im sure they will be relieved. You may not think so but the Russians do, and thats whats important to understanding the conflict. On one hand you claim the Russians have to be stopped because they may get froggy and invade Europe, and on the other hand You claim The Russian army is a complete joke. So which is it?


If the golden dome is as effective as the Iron dome Russia has nothing to worry about.



The SM-6 has over the horizon anti-ship capability, most likely a range of 200+ miles, and a speed of 3.5 mach
spat said:
Imagine if those were basically SM-6 interceptors instead. Then Russia's nuclear threat evaporates
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The SM-6 has over the horizon anti-ship capability, most likely a range of 200+ miles, and a speed of 3.5 mach


Russian hypersonic missiles can reach speeds of Mach 10 or higher, with some capable of speeds up to Mach 27. For example, the Kinzhal missile has a speed of up to Mach 10, while the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle can reach speeds between Mach 20 and 27. These high speeds, combined with maneuverability, make them difficult to intercept.

The Russian Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle has an operational range exceeding 3,700 miles (6,000 km). It is designed to be carried as a payload on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), such as the RS-28 Sarmat. The Avangard can travel at speeds of Mach 20 or higher, and it is capable of delivering both nuclear and conventional payloads.


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holdover said:
Sure they ""could"" but they have no intention of doing so.


Ill tell the Russians you said that,Im sure they will be relieved. You may not think so but the Russians do, and thats whats important to understanding the conflict. On one hand you claim the Russians have to be stopped because they may get froggy and invade Europe, and on the other hand You claim The Russian army is a complete joke. So which is it?


If the golden dome is as effective as the Iron dome Russia has nothing to worry about.



The SM-6 has over the horizon anti-ship capability, most likely a range of 200+ miles, and a speed of 3.5 mach



The SM-6 has over the horizon anti-ship capability, most likely a range of 200+ miles, and a speed of 3.5 mach


Russian hypersonic missiles can reach speeds of Mach 10 or higher, with some capable of speeds up to Mach 27. For example, the Kinzhal missile has a speed of up to Mach 10, while the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle can reach speeds between Mach 20 and 27. These high speeds, combined with maneuverability, make them difficult to intercept.

The Russian Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle has an operational range exceeding 3,700 miles (6,000 km). It is designed to be carried as a payload on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), such as the RS-28 Sarmat. The Avangard can travel at speeds of Mach 20 or higher, and it is capable of delivering both nuclear and conventional payloads.


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You asked "what choice do they have" and I said "just go home".

and then you said "well, they could, but they have no intention of doing that". Their lack of intent doesn't mean it's not an option. It just means you haven't used a big enough stick yet.



You are obviously completely unaware of how an orbital missile defense works.

All SLBMs and ICBMs are mach 20+. It's inherent in the design.

But missile defense systems don't chase them down from behind. They just maneuver into the path of the missile.

We can shoot down satellites with an SM3, from the ground. Satellites are all also going in the same speed range (17,000 mph) and altitude. And that's being fired from a ship at sea.

If your interceptor already starts in orbit, then it's *starting* at 17,000mph before it's even triggered. It just needs to maneuver into the way of the missile it's intercepting.

The orbital kill vehicle wouldn't be an actual SM6, but it would be pretty similar, and wouldn't need anything fancy for tech.

Whether we get it or not depends almost entirely on how the 2026 and 2028 elections go.

As far as a comparison to Iron Dome, it's got something like a 95% interception tract record. Anyone who calls that "failed" is a fool.


Also, what is the point of putting a cruise missile on an ICBM ? The ICBM can hit anywhere in the world in half an hour. With a MIRV bus it can already hit multiple targets scattered across a continent.

Seems like a solution in search of a problem.
 
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spat said:
As far as a comparison to Iron Dome, it's got something like a 95% interception tract record. Anyone who calls that "failed" is a fool.
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Thats the sales pitch, the reality in real warfare is much lower. Iran did some serious damage to isreal including takeing out airfields and Hq's pulus damaging the port If those were nukes Israel would have been gone, even 95% would not be good enough.

5% of russian nukes would destroy the US , thats several hundred strikes , thats not a great option
 
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An Iranian ballistic missile slammed into a building complex in Beer Sheva in Southern Israel with Israeli media reporting that air defense systems malfunctioned. It comes as a senior intelligence official in Israel tells NBC News that Israel’s renowned Iron Dome missile defense system had been 90 percent effective, but that it has gone down to 65 percent in the last 24 hours. NBC’s Richard Engel reports for TODAY from Tel Aviv.


According to reports citing a senior Israeli intelligence official, the effectiveness of Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system has reportedly dropped to 65%. This marks a significant decrease from the previous reported rate of 90%. This decline in effectiveness has been attributed to a combination of factors, including:
  • Increased sophistication of enemy missiles: Iran is reportedly utilizing more advanced missiles with enhanced speed, accuracy, and potentially multiple warheads, making them more challenging to intercept. These newer missiles have also reportedly reduced the available warning and reaction time for Israeli air defenses.
  • Saturation attacks: Iran and its proxies may be employing tactics like saturation attacks, launching a large number of missiles simultaneously to potentially overwhelm the Iron Dome's capacity.
  • Electronic Warfare and Countermeasures: The possibility of electronic warfare and countermeasures being used against Iron Dome's radar and targeting systems is also a concern.
  • Depletion of Interceptor Stocks: Reports from sources like The Wall Street Journal and Newsweek have highlighted concerns about dwindling stockpiles of Arrow missile interceptors, which are part of Israel's broader air defense architecture alongside Iron Dome.
 
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