US and Iran conflict thread. ( merged threads)

Drinkthekoolaid

Drinkthekoolaid

.475 A&M Magnum
U.S. Military
Messages
17,005
Reaction score
30,303
Location
Unfortunately, NY
spat

spat

.950 JDJ
Messages
31,168
Reaction score
66,158
Location
Formerly Geneseo, NY. Now free in AZ
Bigfoot

Bigfoot

.475 A&M Magnum
Messages
19,519
Reaction score
49,751
Location
On the Trump Train
"Iran’s secret missile cities, hidden deep beneath mountains for decades, were designed to withstand any attack. But in a stunning turn of events, powerful bunker-busting strikes reportedly sealed critical tunnel networks, trapping vital infrastructure and altering the balance of power in the Middle East.

This documentary-style video explores the scale, strategy, and geopolitical consequences of these underground operations, from stealth bombers and cyber warfare to the collapse."

22:00 video -
 
L

livingston

20×102mm Vulcan
Messages
52,473
Reaction score
142,631
Location
livingston county
spat said:
So, who controls it now ?

Or do your standards flip whenever it benefits our enemies ?

Iran war live: US military says it will block Iranian traffic in Hormuz | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera Iran says US blockade on Gulf ports ‘illegal, ‘act of piracy’
Click to expand...
Oil and gas sales from Iran are under international sanction and not supposed to be taking place. However, oil and gas sales from Iran -violating the sanctions- have been taking place.
CENTCOM is announcing that the U.S. military will now ensure the oil and gas from Iran doesn’t move.
The U.S. will physically enforce the pre-existing global sanctions. A blockade begins tomorrow morning.
Oil and gas from Kuwait will be allowed transit and passage. Oil and gas from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar will also transit without issue. However, oil or gas from Iran will be blocked. China takes the biggest hit, again.


This blockade is happening against the little discussed backdrop of Dubai (UAE) targeting Iranian money changers.
DUBAI – The arrest of dozens of IRGC-linked money changers in the United Arab Emirates is one of the most serious blows yet to Tehran’s sanctions-evasion network, laying bare how heavily the Islamic Republic has depended on Dubai as an economic lifeline.
Sources familiar with the matter told Iran International that UAE authorities detained dozens of money changers tied to financial entities linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, shut down associated companies and closed their offices.
“This is going to be a real problem for Tehran because Dubai was an economic lung for the Iranian regime,” Jason Brodsky of United Against Nuclear Iran told Iran International.
“That is economic pressure and diplomatic isolation in a way that the UAE is able to employ against the Iranian regime, and it will have a very considerable impact.” (more)
theconservativetreehouse.com

Cut Off the Money - U.S Military Will Start Enforcing Embargo of Product No One Is Supposed to Be Buying - The Last Refuge

The headline is the reality of the thing. Oil and gas sales from Iran are under international sanction and not supposed to be taking place. However, oil and gas sales from Iran -violating the sanctions- have been taking place. CENTCOM is announcing that the U.S. military will now ensure the oil...
theconservativetreehouse.com theconservativetreehouse.com
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/UAE-Dubai.jpg
 
L

livingston

20×102mm Vulcan
Messages
52,473
Reaction score
142,631
Location
livingston county
threadreaderapp.com

Thread by @miadmaleki on Thread Reader App

@miadmaleki: 1/10 The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would cost Iran approximately $276M/day in lost exports and disrupt $159M/day in imports, a combined economic damage of ~$435M/day, or $13B/month. Ov...…
threadreaderapp.com threadreaderapp.com

Analysis of how bad shutting down Hormuz Strait will be for Iran, Great Read!
theconservativetreehouse.com

Cut Off the Money - U.S Military Will Start Enforcing Embargo of Product No One Is Supposed to Be Buying - The Last Refuge

The headline is the reality of the thing. Oil and gas sales from Iran are under international sanction and not supposed to be taking place. However, oil and gas sales from Iran -violating the sanctions- have been taking place. CENTCOM is announcing that the U.S. military will now ensure the oil...
theconservativetreehouse.com theconservativetreehouse.com
 
H

holdover

.475 A&M Magnum
Messages
17,289
Reaction score
25,442
Location
occupied NY
spat said:
So, who controls it now ?

Or do your standards flip whenever it benefits our enemies ?

Iran war live: US military says it will block Iranian traffic in Hormuz | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera Iran says US blockade on Gulf ports ‘illegal, ‘act of piracy’
Click to expand...
It's contested. It can't be opened by US by decree. Iran has the ability to blow those ships out of the water and any ship that is dumb enough to try it.

The US is baiting Iran with 2 donkey ships
They want to know when where and how they will respond. So they can eliminate the the threat. It's called recon by fire


Iran hasn't fired a shot yet. So I wouldn't be so cocksure at this point


Most likely looking for better targets
But if you think the US is in total control of the straight at this point. Your dizzier than I thought

The US can stop shipping and Iran can stop shipping, so it's contested. Not co trolled
 
Steal2B

Steal2B

.700 Nitro Express
Messages
27,485
Reaction score
85,677
Location
Dutchess County
holdover said:
It's contested. It can't be opened by US by decree. Iran has the ability to blow those ships out of the water and any ship that is dumb enough to try it.

The US is baiting Iran with 2 donkey ships
They want to know when where and how they will respond. So they can eliminate the the threat. It's called recon by fire


Iran hasn't fired a shot yet. So I wouldn't be so cocksure at this point


Most likely looking for better targets
But if you think the US is in total control of the straight at this point. Your dizzier than I thought

The US can stop shipping and Iran can stop shipping, so it's contested. Not co trolled
Click to expand...
Screenshot_20260413_003205_Facebook.jpg
 
FP1201

FP1201

.338 Win Mag
Messages
7,478
Reaction score
12,313
Location
Adams, NY
Not being a smart man, perhaps I just don't understand, but if America is a net exporter of Oil and America hasn't imported anything from Iran in almost fifty years, then Why are Gasoline prices steadily increasing while blaming the Bombing/Blockades in Iran?
 
Steal2B

Steal2B

.700 Nitro Express
Messages
27,485
Reaction score
85,677
Location
Dutchess County
Noted Iran Analyst Dr. Ramesh Sepehrrad says Iran's delay in burying Supreme Leader Khamenei over 40 days after his killing reveals a deepening crisis inside the Islamic Republic.

This prolonged delay in the burial of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, signals a deepening crisis inside the Islamic Republic, according to the prominent Iranian strategist. Iran remains in crisis after the 2 week "military rest period"as US talks collapse early, and Mojtaba’s ‘mafia’ regime continues to block religiously mandated timelines for the Khamenei burial. Tensions continue to rise after bogus peace talks between the United States and Iran stalled early and internal Iranian tensions showcase the regime’s stability.

A three-day state funeral scheduled for early March 2026 had already been postponed.

"Forty-four days have passed, and the regime does not have the confidence to publicly bury Mojtaba’s dead father," said Sepehrrad of the separate strike affecting his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, who succeeded him.

Mojtaba is reported to be still recovering from severe facial and leg injuries, three people close to his inner circle told Pakistan mediated.

"No plan has yet been announced for the time, place, or next round of negotiations," Iranian state news agency Nour reported Saturday, citing the country’s Supreme National Security Council, with no statement from the new Supreme Leader.

"Mojtaba is less the supreme leader in the traditional sense and more the coordinator of a security-led system," Sepehrrad explained before describing him as "more like a security-backed coordinator."

"This regime does not communicate with one unified voice. It communicates by function," Sepehrrad said.

"One channel negotiates, another threatens, another punishes, and another tries to maintain ideological continuity. It is now a mafia," the strategist claimed.

"The key point is not harmony but division of labor. What holds them together is regime survival, not trust."

"What we are seeing now is deeper: a leader who lacks organic authority and therefore governs through the institution that controls force," Sepehrrad said.

On the Iranian side, negotiations, the analyst said, also did involve "diplomats," but a wider circle of security-linked figures shaping Tehran’s posture, reflecting the increasing dominance of hardline institutions.

"This was a brittle coalition of security men," Sepehrrad said, before describing how Mojtaba is "at the top, but is heavily reliant on the Guards, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, SNSC chief Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi, Judiciary chief Mohseni-Ejei, and law enforcement chief Ahmad-Reza Radan."

"Several of the most important surviving figures are not primarily diplomats," Sepehrrad said before suggesting that that should "change how we should read everything coming out of Tehran."

"That is a different system from the one many Western analysts still think they are dealing with," Sepehrrad explained. "Dual track — tactical flexibility in talks and a harsher repression at home."

"While the regime negotiates to buy time, reduce pressure on its forces, and prevent broader external escalation, internally, it is likely to intensify arrests, executions, intimidation, and internet controls now," the strategist warned.
 
Drinkthekoolaid

Drinkthekoolaid

.475 A&M Magnum
U.S. Military
Messages
17,005
Reaction score
30,303
Location
Unfortunately, NY
FP1201 said:
Not being a smart man, perhaps I just don't understand, but if America is a net exporter of Oil and America hasn't imported anything from Iran in almost fifty years, then Why are Gasoline prices steadily increasing while blaming the Bombing/Blockades in Iran?
Click to expand...

Oil is a global commodity.

The price is set globally regardless of where it comes from.

Every country is competing to buy oil and every country that produces it is trying to sell it for the higher amount.

If the global supply of oil is reduced or curtailed, there is less of it and the price will rise. It boils down to basic supply and demand. The global demand hasn't changed but the available supply has been reduced.

if the US oil producers can sell a barrel of oil to the
US domestic market for $75, but an international company will pay $125 per barrel, they're going to load the boat and earn more on the sale.

Short of nationalising our oil market and enacting regulations where our oil can be sold, that's the system that is in place


This map shows empty oil tankers traveling to the US Gulf Coast to buy US oil on the global price. This is all going to be tanker full loads of oil being sold by US oil companies to foreign companies as an export.
images (3).jpeg


Does that help break it down?
 
Steal2B

Steal2B

.700 Nitro Express
Messages
27,485
Reaction score
85,677
Location
Dutchess County
FP1201 said:
Not being a smart man, perhaps I just don't understand, but if America is a net exporter of Oil and America hasn't imported anything from Iran in almost fifty years, then Why are Gasoline prices steadily increasing while blaming the Bombing/Blockades in Iran?
Click to expand...
My take .....

Although more oil is harvested in the US than is consumed in the US (sounds nice), US oil sales are not confined to just US oil consumers and is sold on the "open" market. ("Open" is a euphemism because it's certainly not like a consumer can barter much)

The price at the pump, however, does not just react to supply and demand, it is also reacting to a futures market where essentially middlemen assholes guess what the price will be and set prices for future sales.

Now, let me tell you how it really worked in the past. During the first Arab oil embargo in the early 70s I was on a super tanker carrying 80 thousand tons of essentially gasoline on its maiden voyage from Nigeria under contract with Texaco.

When we were topped off and heading back to the States were were told to slow down because during the "shortage from the OPEC Embargo" all the US storage facilities were full.

When we got back to the states with 80 thousand tons of fuel we then had to look busy and ran around between Trinidad, Texas, Louisiana, NJ, PA etc trying to look busy.

It was frustrating to get off a tanker with 80 thousand tons of fuel, rent a car with an empty tank, wait in line at a gas station, and then hear some bullshit about even license plates only when we had an odd license plate. We took control of our own destiny with a five gallon bucket of free fuel that was set under an open gooseneck vent of a tanker carrying 80 thousand tons of fuel with no where to put it.

For your information, 80,000 tons is just under 25 million gallons.
 
Saltwater60

Saltwater60

20×102mm Vulcan
Messages
37,826
Reaction score
42,174
Location
Western NY
holdover said:
The Zionists have been saying exactly that , Kill all the Muslims in the Mideast and well finally have peace , which is probably one of reasons your all for killing off the Muslims in the Mideast.

They say their shit doesn't stink, but their farts give them away. You convict yourself with your own words
Click to expand...
To be fair a lot of the violence is from the Muslim states and people around the world.
 
Saltwater60

Saltwater60

20×102mm Vulcan
Messages
37,826
Reaction score
42,174
Location
Western NY
Drinkthekoolaid said:
Oil is a global commodity.

The price is set globally regardless of where it comes from.

Every country is competing to buy oil and every country that produces it is trying to sell it for the higher amount.

If the global supply of oil is reduced or curtailed, there is less of it and the price will rise. It boils down to basic supply and demand. The global demand hasn't changed but the available supply has been reduced.

if the US oil producers can sell a barrel of oil to the
US domestic market for $75, but an international company will pay $125 per barrel, they're going to load the boat and earn more on the sale.

Short of nationalising our oil market and enacting regulations where our oil can be sold, that's the system that is in place


This map shows empty oil tankers traveling to the US Gulf Coast to buy US oil on the global price. This is all going to be tanker full loads of oil being sold by US oil companies to foreign companies as an export.
View attachment 281722


Does that help break it down?
Click to expand...
I will also add refineries are set up to refine a certain type of oil. To put it simply there is good oil and bad oil. From last I looked our oil refineries aren’t really set up to process our oil as well as other countries oil.
Our refineries are set up to refine heavy crude oil not the light sweet crude oil we provide. We refine about 60% of our own oil then import the oil our refineries aren’t optimized to refine. This comes from Canada, Venezuela(formerly), Mexico, and the Middle East.
We import some oil for a specific reason and export other oil. Seems odd to me but efficiency in refining matters.
 

Attachments

  • IMG_3249.png
    IMG_3249.png
    173 KB · Views: 0
Saltwater60

Saltwater60

20×102mm Vulcan
Messages
37,826
Reaction score
42,174
Location
Western NY
livingston said:
Oil and gas sales from Iran are under international sanction and not supposed to be taking place. However, oil and gas sales from Iran -violating the sanctions- have been taking place.
CENTCOM is announcing that the U.S. military will now ensure the oil and gas from Iran doesn’t move.
The U.S. will physically enforce the pre-existing global sanctions. A blockade begins tomorrow morning.
Oil and gas from Kuwait will be allowed transit and passage. Oil and gas from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar will also transit without issue. However, oil or gas from Iran will be blocked. China takes the biggest hit, again.


This blockade is happening against the little discussed backdrop of Dubai (UAE) targeting Iranian money changers.
DUBAI – The arrest of dozens of IRGC-linked money changers in the United Arab Emirates is one of the most serious blows yet to Tehran’s sanctions-evasion network, laying bare how heavily the Islamic Republic has depended on Dubai as an economic lifeline.
Sources familiar with the matter told Iran International that UAE authorities detained dozens of money changers tied to financial entities linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, shut down associated companies and closed their offices.
“This is going to be a real problem for Tehran because Dubai was an economic lung for the Iranian regime,” Jason Brodsky of United Against Nuclear Iran told Iran International.
“That is economic pressure and diplomatic isolation in a way that the UAE is able to employ against the Iranian regime, and it will have a very considerable impact.” (more)
theconservativetreehouse.com

Cut Off the Money - U.S Military Will Start Enforcing Embargo of Product No One Is Supposed to Be Buying - The Last Refuge

The headline is the reality of the thing. Oil and gas sales from Iran are under international sanction and not supposed to be taking place. However, oil and gas sales from Iran -violating the sanctions- have been taking place. CENTCOM is announcing that the U.S. military will now ensure the oil...
theconservativetreehouse.com theconservativetreehouse.com
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/UAE-Dubai.jpg
Click to expand...
The USA should confiscate it to reimburse itself for the cost of this crap.
 
tirwin1

tirwin1

.475 A&M Magnum
Messages
19,290
Reaction score
53,532
Location
rochester
Saltwater60 said:
I will also add refineries are set up to refine a certain type of oil. To put it simply there is good oil and bad oil. From last I looked our oil refineries aren’t really set up to process our oil as well as other countries oil.
Our refineries are set up to refine heavy crude oil not the light sweet crude oil we provide. We refine about 60% of our own oil then import the oil our refineries aren’t optimized to refine. This comes from Canada, Venezuela(formerly), Mexico, and the Middle East.
We import some oil for a specific reason and export other oil. Seems odd to me but efficiency in refining matters.
Click to expand...
Yes. As I learned a few years ago oil is classified in 2 ways - light/heavy or sweet/sour. This has to do with where it is found and how easy it is to extract. IIRC after the oil embargo of the 1970's our refineries were converted to process more of the heavy or sour stuff.

In the aggregate we produce enough oil to be self sufficient. In reality our refineries are not really geared towards the oil that is actually found in this country so we need to import other types of oil and (oversimplifying) blend it with domestic production. In theory trump could issue an executive order banning the export of oil which would insulate our domestic prices from the rest of the world. That isn't a practical reality until our refining capabilites match the type of oil that is extracted domestically. So we are still subject to the spot price of oil on the world market.
 
SonOfSun

SonOfSun

.338 Win Mag
Messages
5,068
Reaction score
6,239
Location
WNY
holdover said:
It's contested. It can't be opened by US by decree. Iran has the ability to blow those ships out of the water and any ship that is dumb enough to try it.

The US is baiting Iran with 2 donkey ships
They want to know when where and how they will respond. So they can eliminate the the threat. It's called recon by fire


Iran hasn't fired a shot yet. So I wouldn't be so cocksure at this point


Most likely looking for better targets
But if you think the US is in total control of the straight at this point. Your dizzier than I thought

The US can stop shipping and Iran can stop shipping, so it's contested. Not co trolled
Click to expand...


Three Tankers Clear Hormuz as Other Ships Abandon Passage


Three tankers — the first to attempt a transit of the Strait of Hormuz since the US announced a blockade — have successfully cleared the waterway. After sailing near the Iranian coast, the trio have now emerged into open waters.
 
Mosinitis

Mosinitis

.338 Win Mag
Messages
8,746
Reaction score
8,084
Location
NY state
I think a lot of this has to do with playing commodities market and making a ton of money by being able to influence it. Otherwise none if this even makes sense.
 
spat

spat

.950 JDJ
Messages
31,168
Reaction score
66,158
Location
Formerly Geneseo, NY. Now free in AZ
FP1201 said:
Not being a smart man, perhaps I just don't understand, but if America is a net exporter of Oil and America hasn't imported anything from Iran in almost fifty years, then Why are Gasoline prices steadily increasing while blaming the Bombing/Blockades in Iran?
Click to expand...
Because oil is a commodity.

If we can produce oil here for $60/bbl, but China is willing to buy it for $120/bbl because they can't get it any cheaper, then we will ship it there and take the $120 rather than selling it here for $60.

Think of it like this. Let's say you have a garden and you're growing tomatoes. All in it costs you $0.10 to grow a tomato.

But you can sell every tomato you can grow for $1 because there is a demand.

How much does it cost you to put a tomato on your burger ? The $0.10 it cost to grow it, or the $1 you lost by not selling it ?
 
Bigfoot

Bigfoot

.475 A&M Magnum
Messages
19,519
Reaction score
49,751
Location
On the Trump Train
I checked out about X's "Open Source Intel," and it's considered legit.
Don't know about the credibility of the other 3 sources below. So, as always. - FWIW.


Screenshot_2026-04-13_at_09-32-40__6__Ho-3745968.jpg






Then there's this...



 
Last edited:
SonOfSun

SonOfSun

.338 Win Mag
Messages
5,068
Reaction score
6,239
Location
WNY
spat said:
Think of it like this. Let's say you have a garden and you're growing tomatoes. All in it costs you $0.10 to grow a tomato.

But you can sell every tomato you can grow for $1 because there is a demand.

How much does it cost you to put a tomato on your burger ? The $0.10 it cost to grow it, or the $1 you lost by not selling it ?
Click to expand...

Depends on who you are asking.

For tax purposes, a business writes off the production and labor costs (the cost basis) of unsold goods as the loss, not the retail value. If this wasn't the case I could make a pair of gloves, price it at 50 million, and never pay any taxes.

As the business owner you'd probably consider it a loss of $1.10 of potential. 10 cents paid out to produce a good that actually returned 0 income AND a loss of $1 from not selling the tomato.
 
spat

spat

.950 JDJ
Messages
31,168
Reaction score
66,158
Location
Formerly Geneseo, NY. Now free in AZ
SonOfSun said:
Depends on who you are asking.

For tax purposes, a business writes off the production and labor costs (the cost basis) of unsold goods as the loss, not the retail value. If this wasn't the case I could make a pair of gloves, price it at 50 million, and never pay any taxes.

As the business owner you'd probably consider it a loss of $1.10 of potential. 10 cents paid out to produce a good that actually returned 0 income AND a loss of $1 from not selling the tomato.
Click to expand...
Calling it $1.10 is a bit of a stretch IMHO.

If you sell it for $1.00 your profit is only $0.90.

So you add your lost profit and your cost you're back at $1.

The way to look at it is "you bought it from yourself at market rate".

Calling your loss $1.10 is counting that cost of production twice since the $0.10 would have come out of the $1 even if you sold it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top