20 Key Races that Will Determine Which Party Controls the House of Representatives

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20 Key Races that Will Determine Which Party Controls the House of Representatives
Twenty key races are expected to determine which party controls the House of Representatives after voters go to the polls on November 6.
The generic ballot advantage of Democrats in Congressional races in the midterm elections holds steady at around 7.6 percent, which is slightly above the five percent generic ballot advantage most political experts believe Democrats have needed to win a majority in the House since the gerrymandering of congressional district boundaries by Republican controlled state legislatures after the 2010 census.



As Breitbart News reported previously, only 95 of the 435 House races are considered competitive. Of the 340 House seats that are not competitive, 150 are safely Republican, while 190 are safely Democrat. Breitbart News estimates that 66 of the 95 competitive races are now likely Republican, while nine are now likely Democrat.

The 20 key remaining competitive races are now classified by Breitbart News as election day toss-ups. Nineteen of those seats are currently held by a Republican. Only one is currently held by a Democrat.

Breitbart News has a smaller list of toss-up races than the Cook Political Report, which currently lists 31 toss up races, 30 held by Republicans, and only one held by a Democrat.

As things stand 18 days before the election, 209 seats are likely Democrat, while 206 are likely Republican. In order to maintain a majority in the House of Representatives, Republicans must win 12 of these 20 key races that are the remaining toss-ups.


New York and Minnesota each have three toss-up House races, while California, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, each have two toss-up House races
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20 Key Races that Will Determine Control of House | Breitbart

 

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Here is a brief analysis of each these 20 toss-up races, organized by state:

New York (3)

NY-19: Incumbent Rep. John Faso (R-NY-19) is in a dead heat with Democratic challenger Antonio Delgado in a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Republican +2, according to a Monmouth University Poll conducted in September. Delgado lead by two points in that poll, 45 percent to 43 percent, which was within the margin of error.

NY-22: Incumbent Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY-22) holds an eight point lead over Democratic nominee Anthony Brindisi in a district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Republican +6, according to the most recent poll.
Other polls show the conservative firebrand is in a dead heat with her Democratic challenger.

On Tuesday, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan campaigned in the upstate New York district with Tenney

NY-27: Indicted Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY-27) clings to a narrow three point lead, 46 percent to 43 percent, over Democratic challenger Nate McMurry in the most recent Spectrum News/Siena College Poll in a district President Trump easily won in 2016.

“The indicted incumbent, who only recently reignited his campaign after initially suspending it, ekes out a small advantage over his challenger,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said when the poll was released earlier this week.

Greenberg noted that the “district that has more than 40,000 more Republicans than Democrats. A district that favors Republicans maintaining control of the House by 18 points. And a district that gives President Trump an 18-point net positive job approval rating.”