I am decent at predictions in the political arena. I hope that I am correct and nearly every poll is incorrect.
One of the reasons these National polls are wrong, most of the time, is because they (The pollsters) do a National feel.
They reach out throughout a State and take a sample of opinions and possible voting trends.
For example, in NY, they will call say, 10,000 people throughout the State. Out of those 10,000 people asked, maybe the numbers come back that Biden is favored 8.500 to Trumps 1,500. Therefore, they say NY is strong for Biden.
This is so wrong on every level. Mindsets are different across every State and territory.
I spend many hours looking at local Counties. Many hours.
There are over 3000 county's and county-equivalents in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. This takes a lot of time. I am talking about many, many hours and days. Now, I do not need to spend a shit ton of time on each County, some are really easy and I can just check off a country either Left or Right.
This is the only way to get an accurate feel of the nation. I do this for you, the little people of America. This is how I come up with my numbers and my predictions. I invest my time to ensure an accurate account of upcoming elections.