Madmallard
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It's likely that New York will lose one of its 27 congressional seats in the 2022 reapportionment because its small growth in population hasn't kept pace with the nation as a whole.
According to Census Bureau estimates released Wednesday, New York’s population was 19.85 million as of July 1. That’s up by 471,297 from the last decennial census conducted in 2010.
But the gain — 2.4 percent — is less than the nation's growth of 5.5 percent.
POLITICO looked at the shifts of population in each state from 2010 through 2017, then assumed that they will continue unchanged for another three years. New York is on pace to top 20 million residents by the next reapportionment, but if trends continue as they have so far this decade, its share of the country’s population will dip from 6.29 percent to 6.03 percent.
Assuming the size of the House of Representatives remains unchanged at 435 members, the formula that’s used to distribute seats will likely mean the loss of a seat, probably upstate, in New York.
That would be the state's smallest shift in representation in 70 years. The state had 45 representatives for a couple of decades leading up to the 1950 census, when it dropped to 43. In each of the six succeeding censuses after that, it lost somewhere between two and five seats.
As the numbers stand now, there would need to be a very sudden shift in population for New York’s total to be anything but 26 seats in the decade following the 2022 reapportionment.
If the trajectories of other states remain unchanged, New York’s population would need to hit 20.4 million in order for it to retain 27 seats. That would require an increase over the next three years that’s eight times as rapid as that which has occurred over the past seven. On the other hand, if New York’s population falls by about 100,000 residents per year over the next three years, it would lose two seats.
New York on pace to lose 1 congressional seat in 2022
According to Census Bureau estimates released Wednesday, New York’s population was 19.85 million as of July 1. That’s up by 471,297 from the last decennial census conducted in 2010.
But the gain — 2.4 percent — is less than the nation's growth of 5.5 percent.
POLITICO looked at the shifts of population in each state from 2010 through 2017, then assumed that they will continue unchanged for another three years. New York is on pace to top 20 million residents by the next reapportionment, but if trends continue as they have so far this decade, its share of the country’s population will dip from 6.29 percent to 6.03 percent.
Assuming the size of the House of Representatives remains unchanged at 435 members, the formula that’s used to distribute seats will likely mean the loss of a seat, probably upstate, in New York.
That would be the state's smallest shift in representation in 70 years. The state had 45 representatives for a couple of decades leading up to the 1950 census, when it dropped to 43. In each of the six succeeding censuses after that, it lost somewhere between two and five seats.
As the numbers stand now, there would need to be a very sudden shift in population for New York’s total to be anything but 26 seats in the decade following the 2022 reapportionment.
If the trajectories of other states remain unchanged, New York’s population would need to hit 20.4 million in order for it to retain 27 seats. That would require an increase over the next three years that’s eight times as rapid as that which has occurred over the past seven. On the other hand, if New York’s population falls by about 100,000 residents per year over the next three years, it would lose two seats.
New York on pace to lose 1 congressional seat in 2022
