Predictions on the upcoming presidential election

[Jchrisls]

Looking for honest data and educated beliefs on the outcome. We all here have our hopes and wishes, but looking for what your PREDICTIONS will be, not Hope's and dreams.

 

[Jchrisls]

I should also mention that this poll was intentionally made anonymous to allow predictions to be made without fear of attacks on any individual for different opinions.

Feelings are malleable, predictions are better informed guesses but noone should be alienated for either.

 

[wizrd]

No thinking involved here - Trump will win BIG!

 

[Toecutter]

I've never seen a presidential candidate as popular as Trump. I dont think he has lost many voters from his previous election and he definitely has picked up a few .

 

[spat]

I honestly don't know.

In any sane world Trump would win in a land slide.

But we live in clown world, so I don’t know.

There are so many variables.

I know several very intelligent generally conservative minded people who get their news from the main stream media and think Trump is terrible. They aren’t going to vote for Biden, but if they have been suckered in by the left wing propaganda anyone can be.

They honestly think that because they get their news from multiple main stream sources they get a balanced view of the world. "CNN, NBC, CBS, they all agree, so it must be true"

The left wing chokehold on information has led to a profoundly one sided view of the election for the vast majority of people.

People who are awake, and aren’t constrained by that choke hold do overwhelmingly and enthusiasticlly support Trump over Biden, despite his flaws.

And then there's the voter fraud.

I don’t know how much of it there will be, but if targetted properly it might not take much, and the "we'll count mail in votes a week after the election" opens up the door for highly targeted fraud. 20k votes in the right state could swing the election, and I think 20k is a very low estimate of how much fraud we'll see.

Trump's base is as fired up as any in the history of the country. Biden's base doesn't like him in the slightest, but they think he is literally running against Hitler, so....

 

[libertysnake]

So, I can only go based on my personal experiences and observations:

• I do know some liberals, but their numbers haven't really changed.
• I do not know of anyone who was pro-Trump who switched to liberal during the last cycle to this one.
• I see just as many, if not more, pro-Trump signs around the county.

Based off this, and private conversations, I'd say the media appears to be embellishing Biden's numbers. I could be dead wrong about that, but when your "on the ground" view differs so much from the "media" view, you should always be suspect you're being lied to / manipulated.

Not sure how much Trump will win by, but I suspect he'll pull another win since the "on the ground" sentiment seems the same to me. Then again, maybe it's just my bubble of people.

 

[Xae289]

I'm in the deep blue here, and I see very little excitement for Biden. It isn't the charged atmosphere like with Trump/Hillary. There isn't a sense of hype pushing for the "first woman president/most qualified candidate in US history/etc BS". The people I know are voting for Biden are doing so dutifully because they think Trump majorly screwed up the pandemic and believe the propaganda pushed by the left-wing media. I've spoken to a surprising many people who are willing to admit they're voting for Trump and have talked to people who I think will, but aren't willing to admit it out loud. I obviously see more Biden signs and bumper stickers given where I am, but I also see a surprising number of very loud pro-Trump displays.

In the last election, my local feeling 4 years ago was that Hillary was a lock, but this was softened by talking to people from other places who relayed their local atmosphere. This year feels like the opposite. Biden doesn't even feel like a lock here where he really is guaranteed to win. That said, things are weird. At the risk of sounding like John Madden and stating the obvious, Trump will only win if more voters actually go out and pull the lever for him than the people who are out there voting against him or voting for Biden by default.

 

[Briwesk85]

I see more trump signs than Biden signs
I know a few people who were democrats drop the democrat party (but most likely will vote libertatian party). I hope trump wins, because a Biden whitehouse would be horrible for this country.

 

[DrBleachCocktail]

I think Biden is going to win by cheating or fraud but I hope trump takes 2020!

 

[SonOfSun]

Biden's base doesn't like him in the slightest, but they think he is literally running against Hitler, so....

This sums up my feeling about it, minus the Hitler part. He's not Hitler.

I don't like Biden much at all, but I hate Trump. He's monstrously arrogant. His personality is loathsome. He's an apex narcissist. Most of the people I know who lean left feel the same way. Obviously that's not scientific, but it has been my observation. I'm not voting for Joe, I'm voting for not Trump.

The above by the way is why you can't judge by lawn signs. I'd never put a Biden sign on my lawn. However, short of death, there's also no way that I won't be voting for Biden on election day.

 

[Catskillkid]

I honestly don't know. If you want to believe the polls it looks like Biden has a lead, especially in swing states, but we've seen this movie before 4 years ago so take from that what you will.

As @libertysnake alluded to I can only look at my little segment of the world and the bubble that I operate in. In my little community, which is pretty conservative, I see mostly signs for Trump and other local Republican candidates. There are some Biden signs (not a lot). I'd say there are actually more BLM signs than Biden signs.

When I go into the office I pass through another small town of roughly equal population but it's far more liberal with a lot more Biden signs. Interestingly they look to be homemade signs and not ones that you'd get from the candidate's website or local Democratic Party office. Not quite sure how to interpret that though it says to me that if someone wants to go to the effort of making homemade sign they're motivated. What's interesting is that I see a lot of Anti-Trump signs ("Drump Trump", "POTUS: Piece Of Totally Useless Shit" [with Trump's silhouette on it], and "Bye Don [a play on Biden I suppose]). I see far more Anti-Trump signs than pro-Biden signs in my travels which tells me people are voting against candidate as opposed to for one. Unclear how this will play out but usually there's less motivation if you're not all that behind a candidate (people may be voting third party or writing in a name as a protest vote).

Far and away everyone I know who is over 40 is voting for Trump and mostly keeping quiet about it and everyone under 40 is voting for Biden and being supremely vocal about it. Truth be told that latter group isn't so much voting for Biden (he's far too old, white and conservative in their eyes) as they are voting against Trump. As least that's how I'm interpreting my Facebook newsfeed.

Again, this is just my little day-to-day bubble so may not be indicative of the nation as a whole

 

[spat]

This sums up my feeling about it, minus the Hitler part. He's not Hitler.

I don't like Biden much at all, but I hate Trump. He's monstrously arrogant. His personality is loathsome. He's an apex narcissist. Most of the people I know who lean left feel the same way. Obviously that's not scientific, but it has been my observation. I'm not voting for Joe, I'm voting for not Trump.

The above by the way is why you can't judge by lawn signs. I'd never put a Biden sign on my lawn. However, short of death, there's also no way that I won't be voting for Biden on election day.

All the reasons you don’t like Trump are emotional not rational.

I'm not voting for him because I think he'd be a good date for my daughter.

I'm voting for him to reverse the death spiral this country is on, or at least slow it down a little bit.

What *policies* or *actions* do you think Biden will do better ?

The list of "good stuff" that has been accomplished under Trump's leadership over the last 4 years completely eclipses what the last 4 entire administrations have done put together.

No, "he says mean things" doesn't especially persuade me. It shouldn't persuade anyone thinking rationally about this either.

So, let me go down your list of reasons you're voting biden.

"Trumo is a narcissist". Well, duh. Nobody running for "leader of the world" isn't going to be a massive narcissist. Trump just doesn't try to hide it.

"Monstrously arrogant". Kinda part of the narcissism. So, you prefer a candidate that hides it better is all ? I like the honesty more.

"His personality is loathsome". Have you been hanging out with him ? Or do you just take the word of people who hate him with a passion ? *Anyone in the world* that got the treatment from the MSM that Trump has would look as bad to someone who doesn't know him personally.

And even *if* he is as nasty as they say (and I am far from convinced, I actually suspect he's a pretty decent guy), what does that have to do with why he's worse than Biden to run the country ?

 

[Blimey]

Biden almost certainly.

 

[Jchrisls]

So far some of the best comments read here.

 

[Jchrisls]

So far some of the best comments read here.

With this caveat- understanding this is a 2A forum, it would naturally lean conservative and potentially show some bias. All in all, great responses so far. @GOPerfect was apparently correct in the last election. Would be interesting to see his prediction.

 

[SonOfSun]

All the reasons you don’t like Trump are emotional not rational.

What *policies* or *actions* do you think Biden will do better ?

Actually it's both. Overall I don't like his policies and I don't like him as a human being.

Policy wise?
Taxes. I want the trump tax bill gone, I don't like it.
Israel. Jerusalem as capital.
Abandoning the Kurds.
I don't like hi. SC picks overall. I want libertarian justices that are both pro choice and Pro 2A.
The stupid wall thing. I agree illegal immigration is a problem. I disagree that a wall is a fix vs just a colossal waste of money.

I could go on, but overall I don't like his policies. He's done some things I like, but not enough to outweigh it.

On the personal side, I also don't like his bashing of McCain .. He's a hero only beacuse he got captured according to trump. Tells me he doesn't understand being a hero at all. Not surprising considering daddy basically paid off a doctor to say he had bone spurs so he could avoid service. So the stuff about dead soldiers being losers, yeah I believe he said it. It fits his character perfectly.

 

[Jchrisls]

Actually it's both. Overall I don't like his policies and I don't like him as a human being.

Policy wise?
Taxes. I want the trump tax bill gone, I don't like it.

I honestly hope the tax bill isn't repealed. In NY, I actually benefited from it. Saved me thousands.

Abandoning the Kurds.
Have you ever served? My children have and do. Thier lives are more important to me than some political agenda. The only agenda I support is bringing them home, and not fighting a war unnecessarily.

 

[DrBleachCocktail]

So the stuff about dead soldiers being losers, yeah I believe he said it. It fits his character perfectly.

Which was denied by everyone that was present at the moment, but I understand.

 

[spat]

Actually it's both. Overall I don't like his policies and I don't like him as a human being.

Policy wise?
Taxes. I want the trump tax bill gone, I don't like it.
Israel. Jerusalem as capital.
Abandoning the Kurds.
I don't like hi. SC picks overall. I want libertarian justices that are both pro choice and Pro 2A.
The stupid wall thing. I agree illegal immigration is a problem. I disagree that a wall is a fix vs just a colossal waste of money.

I could go on, but overall I don't like his policies. He's done some things I like, but not enough to outweigh it.

On the personal side, I also don't like his bashing of McCain .. He's a hero only beacuse he got captured according to trump. Tells me he doesn't understand being a hero at all. Not surprising considering daddy basically paid off a doctor to say he had bone spurs so he could avoid service. So the stuff about dead soldiers being losers, yeah I believe he said it. It fits his character perfectly.

You think Biden is going to be *better* about any of that stuff ?

The Biden tax bill will undoubtedly be far worse than Trump's.

Isreal ? Trump has half the Arab world recognizing them diplomatically now. A feat that has eluded all previous administrations. How can that *possibly* be a bad thing.

Also, why *shouldn't* Jerusalem be the capitol of Isreal ? Isn’t that the Isreali's call ? I would argue that every government that refused to acknowledge the capitol that *they chose for themselves* are the "bad actors" here.

The Kurds ? They have certainly gotten the short end of the stick over there for half a century at least.

While I would like to see them fare better, I'm not so sure I want to see American lives being risked to make it happen. The only long term solution to their predicament is "Kurdistan". I don’t think the world is ready for that.

His SCOTUS choices ? You think you'll like Biden's better ?

The wall. Well, we can debate the practicality of it all you want, but the reality is that is a drop in the bucket of the federal budget. The Biden administration would surely spend more on corporate giveaways to whatever company Hunter ends up on the board of next.

You are blaming Trump for not being perfect, and as a protest you are going to vote for someone who will be undoubtedly *worse* about every metric you seem to care about.

 

[TEOTWAWKI inc.]

I think they are both going to win.

I am only voting(TRUMP) bc I love to vote.

This one will be decided by Congress or SCOTUS.

 

[dwa12479]

Im predicting a Trump landslide on the night of Nov 3rd, but that Biden won't concede. The mail in ballots will be the x factor. The race will close up magically as the mail ins are "counted ", and its gonna make 2000 look like childs play in the courts. Id wager itll be after Thanksgiving before we know who's gonna be in the WH the next 4 years, and m

 

[pjzwtl]

Im predicting a Trump landslide on the night of Nov 3rd, but that Biden won't concede. The mail in ballots will be the x factor. The race will close up magically as the mail ins are "counted ", and its gonna make 2000 look like childs play in the courts. Id wager itll be after Thanksgiving before we know who's gonna be in the WH the next 4 years, and m

Unfortunately your probably correct. The leftist their brown shirts and the media are doing a good at setting the scenario up

 

[prambo]

I predict that Trump will actually "win" both the popular vote and electoral college easily....

But then the DemonRats (AKA Maoists) will "discover" metric shit-tons of mailin and absentee ballots.

This is what DemonRats do, all the time, every time...including our new resident troll Soy Boy...and yes, I ignore it, but I'm in "No Fucks Are Given" mode...so all DemonRat Maoists can ESAD...forever..

My election weather forecast is for increasing sportiness due to Antifa/BurnLootMurder, followed by a high pressure front arriving causing the largest shitstorm of American history.

I'll watch from The 'Hood while sipping whatever I can afford.

Honestly don't give a flying fuck who wins...just worried that we won't learn to grow bananas soon enough to join Venezuela in the shitcan of history.

 

[Jsmegs77]

I am voting for the incumbent, and I expect he will win the election overall, on strictly pragmatic points.

1. Prior to the scamdemic (which on information and belief I feel is 100% politically motivated), my 401k had never been better. My income taxes went down. Working in an industry that depended very much on consumer confidence, I was pulling 70 hour weeks regularly.

2. He appoints and nominates people to judicial posts whose views align with my overall worldview.

3. He is not a long standing member of an impossibly corrupted political oligarchy. He is an outsider, a “stranger in a strange land” as Heinlein would say.

I cannot say any of these about Biden.

 

[Darth]

With how close the last one was, the loss of enthusiasm by the on-the-fence types that went for Trump last time and the tenfold push by social media and the media, I unfortunately see Biden taking this.

 

[BuffNiag]

Biden wins. Makes it about 18 months into term then resigns for health reasons. Either has a stroke or dementia symptoms start to take over.

Political affiliations aside, it‘s terrifying to have the leader of our country having such a high statistical probability of dying in office.

 

[Carlos Hathcock]

I'm in agreement with @spat on Trump. I don't give a monkeys dick about his personality. He's proven to me that his interests are in our country, and in general, my views align with his. I will add this....

1. I think the Dems set this stage to force mail in voting because they weren't going to take any chances this time around. I predict it will be GROSSLY abused just as they hoped.
2. MSM keeps hammering how bad the economy is, and somehow its Trump's fault as if he engineered and released COVID. I think every aspect of this virus is suspect.
3. Dems have been looking to cultivate votes.....and they found it in foolish youth and anyone else that can't see past Trump's personality.
4. In general I believe our country has grown into a mass of soft lazy pussies who have little pride or respect, for both themselves and the country that protects them and let's them take advantage of its fruits. The democratic party obviously caters EXACTLY to this mindest.mindset.

What i hope for and what my rational mind believes will actually happen are two different things. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[GOPerfect]

BTW, I think the mail in voting and the issues with voter fraud are being blown way out of control.

I think is more hype than anything.

 

[Dr. Evil]

I'm not voting for Joe, I'm voting for not Trump.

So, you're voting for Biden. The poll machine gives exactly zero shits about your thought process or reasoning. Just like many feel about Trump, the bottom line is the result.

 

[Jchrisls]

I'm in agreement with @spat on Trump. I don't give a monkeys dick about his personality. He's proven to me that his interests are in our country, and in general, my views align with his. I will add this....

1. I think the Dems set this stage to force mail in voting because they weren't going to take any chances this time around. I predict it will be GROSSLY abused just as they hoped.
2. MSM keeps hammering how bad the economy is, and somehow its Trump's fault as if he engineered and released COVID. I think every aspect of this virus is suspect.
3. Dems have been looking to cultivate votes.....and they found it in foolish youth and anyone else that can't see past Trump's personality.
4. In general I believe our country has grown into a mass of soft lazy pussies who have little pride or respect, for both themselves and the country that protects them and let's them take advantage of its fruits. The democratic party obviously caters EXACTLY to this mindest.mindset.

What i hope for and what my rational mind believes will actually happen are two different things. I hope I'm wrong.

The first 2 sentences completely sum up my argument with those who I've spoken to. I don't, couldn't and wouldn't give a flying shit about someone's personality in that position as long as they benefit me based on policies and more importantly, thier ACTIONS. Some may view him as an ass, and one who talks out of the same orafice, but his policies and actions should be judged separately. For me, his tax policy has been beneficial, his policies regarding foreign conflicts has kept my children directly out of harm's way ( in the military), his appointments to the courts align with my beliefs ECT. Actions mean a helluva lot more than words.