libertysnake
.338 Win Mag
The "nobody is passionate about biden" argument is real but not as relevant as some here think. Nobody was passionate about hillary either (albeit even less are for biden) and that election was extremely close. This election has nothing to do with biden. It is a referendum on trump. Many hate him more than any of you could ever have hated clinton. 538 currently gives trump 12% chance of winning and republicans 26% chance of keeping the senate. Republican support peaked on September 1st and has run off a cliff since. I'm not actually sure what happened in the four weeks preceding the debate to do this, but that's what the polls show.
I kinda don't trust 538 given "Nate plastic" called it overwhelmingly for Hilary last time around, and it was such a shattering loss.
There's some manipulation going on. I don't know how much. It makes it extremely hard to understand what's going on. All I see is what's in my bubble, but I don't know of anyone on the right that was even remotely swayed to the left. If anything, I see people on the right more fired up about voting for Trump as a referendum to the left with regards to them letting riots and wanton political correctness go unchecked.
Point being, I have no idea. I just have no reason to believe, based on my limited experience, that 538 isn't manipulating the numbers like they did last time.