Predictions on the upcoming presidential election

[libertysnake]

The "nobody is passionate about biden" argument is real but not as relevant as some here think. Nobody was passionate about hillary either (albeit even less are for biden) and that election was extremely close. This election has nothing to do with biden. It is a referendum on trump. Many hate him more than any of you could ever have hated clinton. 538 currently gives trump 12% chance of winning and republicans 26% chance of keeping the senate. Republican support peaked on September 1st and has run off a cliff since. I'm not actually sure what happened in the four weeks preceding the debate to do this, but that's what the polls show.

I kinda don't trust 538 given "Nate plastic" called it overwhelmingly for Hilary last time around, and it was such a shattering loss.

There's some manipulation going on. I don't know how much. It makes it extremely hard to understand what's going on. All I see is what's in my bubble, but I don't know of anyone on the right that was even remotely swayed to the left. If anything, I see people on the right more fired up about voting for Trump as a referendum to the left with regards to them letting riots and wanton political correctness go unchecked.

Point being, I have no idea. I just have no reason to believe, based on my limited experience, that 538 isn't manipulating the numbers like they did last time.

 

[cgrutt]

Wouldn't say I'm not concerned about outcome but just read an interesting article that is has me cautiously optimistic Trump will pull off another upset on Election Day. Namely strong support among Latinos in FL (possibly TX?), and continued deterioration of voter registration advantage in OH, PA and WI. Article also mentioned improvement in black support in MI. I know NY, CA etc are lost causes can't bring myself to believe the rest of the country is onboard with Far Left agenda. Also hard to imagine ordinary Americans coming out in droves to support a candidate that has been in hiding for nearly the entire campaign. Hoping latest news over Hunter / overseas profiteering / Big Tech censorship will put additional damper on Democrat enthusiasm over next two weeks. My $0.02.

Tom Del Beccaro: A Trump 'surprise' victory is in the offing -- here are the 10 tea leaves pointing to it

As November 3 approaches, many prognosticators are trying to convince Americans that Joe Biden is a lock to win the presidency.

www.foxnews.com

 

[BuffNiag]

All I see is what's in my bubble...

This, right here, is the problem most people are having in predicting who will win. Talk to some people outside of your close circle of family and friends. Read some news sources you don’t normally read. Take a step away from the NYGF echo chamber. Things aren’t as pro-Trump as you might think.

 

[GOPerfect]

I really wonder how many people, in secret, are reading my threads here and my Tweets of Twitter. Most of what these "Experts" are saying now; I said nearly all of it months and months ago....

 

[GOPerfect]

This, right here, is the problem most people are having in predicting who will win. Talk to some people outside of your close circle of family and friends. Read some news sources you don’t normally read. Take a step away from the NYGF echo chamber. Things aren’t as pro-Trump as you might think.

This is correct, we all seem to get our news and our information from very similar areas.

 

[Robin]

The only way Trump loses is voter fraud. I have never seen anything close to what is going on in this election, big media isn't even hiding their bias anymore and the FBI and some intelligence agencies are actively colluding with them.
Robin

 

[Phazer]

Take a step away from the NYGF echo chamber. Things aren’t as pro-Trump as you might think.

I live and work behind enemy lines. My time on the forums is the only time where I see anything pro-Trump coming from New Yorkers.

In NYC and the surrounding downstate counties, the hatred for Trump is simply amazing. It is totally irrational. But, it is a raging hatred nonetheless. These people do not care if they have to vote for the devil himself as long as their candidate opposes Trump. These Liberal Progressives could not care less about facts about the economy, healthcare, or the historical failures of socialism. They only know one thing: Trump must be defeated.

As long as this campaign remains a referendum on Trump, he is in grave danger of losing. Support for a candidate is a motivator to vote. Fear of a candidate is a motivator to vote. Unbridled hatred of a candidate is also a very powerful motivator to turn out the Left against Trump. Everything these people have seen or heard for four years has told them that Trump is evil. They "know" that the Orange Man is bad. They will turn out, en masse, to draw their line in the sand and oppose the unholy terror who has been an illegitimate president since 2017. Their hatred has been validated for four years. They cannot contain their venom any longer. They will spit it upon their ballots. Woe be the results if their hatred is not sated and Trump actually wins. That hatred will not be contained and will spill out upon the nation.

I hope for a Trump victory. I am preparing to defend against the fetid hateful masses of the Left. I fear that this election will only be the beginning of a painful chapter in our national history.

 

[libertysnake]

I live and work behind enemy lines. My time on the forums is the only time where I see anything pro-Trump coming from New Yorkers.

In NYC and the surrounding downstate counties, the hatred for Trump is simply amazing. It is totally irrational. But, it is a raging hatred nonetheless. These people do not care if they have to vote for the devil himself as long as their candidate opposes Trump. These Liberal Progressives could not care less about facts about the economy, healthcare, or the historical failures of socialism. They only know one thing: Trump must be defeated.

As long as this campaign remains a referendum on Trump, he is in grave danger of losing. Support for a candidate is a motivator to vote. Fear of a candidate is a motivator to vote. Unbridled hatred of a candidate is also a very powerful motivator to turn out the Left against Trump. Everything these people have seen or heard for four years has told them that Trump is evil. They "know" that the Orange Man is bad. They will turn out, en masse, to draw their line in the sand and oppose the unholy terror who has been an illegitimate president since 2017. Their hatred has been validated for four years. They cannot contain their venom any longer. They will spit it upon their ballots. Woe be the results if their hatred is not sated and Trump actually wins. That hatred will not be contained and will spill out upon the nation.

I hope for a Trump victory. I am preparing to defend against the fetid hateful masses of the Left. I fear that this election will only be the beginning of a painful chapter in our national history.

I also used to work down in NYC a few years back. Had been for some time. At some point the commute was killing me, so I took the pay cut and moved to working remotely.

However, as someone who worked for big name tech companies down in NYC -- belly of the liberal beast basically -- I will say this: you'd be surprised how many people do not buy into the bullshit. Many do, but there are conservatives in there. The liberals are very vocal, but you have to watch for the people that aren't very vocal -- often those are the people in the office that are in the center or right of center.

One of my previous coworkers I met was actually very pro-2A. Last I spoke to him he was building an AR in 300 blackout. I found out when we went to the AWS summit one year and we got to talking after too many free beers.

While it's not the norm, it's not as solid of a blue block as you'd expect.

 

[Blimey]

I kinda don't trust 538 given "Nate plastic" called it overwhelmingly for Hilary last time around, and it was such a shattering loss.

There's some manipulation going on. I don't know how much. It makes it extremely hard to understand what's going on. All I see is what's in my bubble, but I don't know of anyone on the right that was even remotely swayed to the left. If anything, I see people on the right more fired up about voting for Trump as a referendum to the left with regards to them letting riots and wanton political correctness go unchecked.

Point being, I have no idea. I just have no reason to believe, based on my limited experience, that 538 isn't manipulating the numbers like they did last time.

Nate called it I think 71% hillary, but if you dig into the details he got most of the states right, and those that she lost were pretty close to projections.

I am not convinced 538 manipulates numbers (though I'm sure they are biased to a degree) but I certainly grant that the polls may indeed be off by a large amount.

 

[Blimey]

The only way Trump loses is voter fraud. I have never seen anything close to what is going on in this election, big media isn't even hiding their bias anymore and the FBI and some intelligence agencies are actively colluding with them.
Robin

The thing with the biden emails was shameful, but nobody seems to care. TDS is intense and whatever means necessary.

 

[cgrutt]

The poor poor, co-owner of "Blind Pig" bar is crying poverty in new Biden ad happens to be a wealthy Tech investor.


More like the Blind Sheep... oh, and Beastie Boys "Sabotage" playing in background couldn't be more appropriate. All smoke and mirrors folks.

Biden campaign faces backlash for TV ad depicting Michigan tech CEO as struggling bar owner

The Biden team is under fire for releasing a TV campaign ad last week depicting a Michigan bar owner struggling to keep his business afloat during the pandemic.

www.foxnews.com

 

[@thewheels]

The only way Trump loses is voter fraud.
Robin

^^^That's it. By hook and by crook Biden will win.
The lessons from the last election have been learned and the process revised.

 

[Phazer]

The lessons from the last election have been learned and the process revised.

....improved and broadened.

 

[soylentBlue]

At my job, support for Biden, BLM, the radical left, ect is 99%
It is odd to me how so many intelligent people can hold such ignorant views.

 

[spat]

Wait...


you played Battletech?

Yep, back in highschool.

I never got into painting the miniatures, I have no artistic talent. But some of my friends did, and they appreciated the simulated battle damage technique.

Had my whole bedroom floor covered in a map under plexiglass for a while.

 

[Phazer]

At my job, support for Biden, BLM, the radical left, ect is 99%
It is odd to me how so many intelligent people can hold such ignorant views.

I work with a lot of highly educated, politically ignorant, people.

 

[BuffNiag]

For those saying Trump will win, what are you looking at that makes you think that? I would be very cautious about signs, rallies, parades, etc. They are anecdotal at best.

 

[Catskillkid]

At my job, support for Biden, BLM, the radical left, ect is 99%
It is odd to me how so many intelligent people can hold such ignorant views.

I work with a lot of highly educated, politically ignorant, people.

Same with my job. And we're considered "upstate."

 

[soylentBlue]

Yep, back in highschool.

I never got into painting the miniatures, I have no artistic talent. But some of my friends did, and they appreciated the simulated battle damage technique.

Had my whole bedroom floor covered in a map under plexiglass for a while.

I built a huge table with moveable hills, trees, water. The table is long gone, but somewhere in the basement are boxes of miniatures and source books.

 

[Phazer]

Here is a perfect example of the "tolerant Left" on display. This is exactly why we can no longer live as one country any longer. Political views now terminally divide people. There is no common ground any longer. The left feels righteous in their persecution of those on the right.

As has been said: The right considers those on the left to be people with bad ideas. The left considers those on the right to be bad people with ideas.

New Hampshire homeowners receive threatening letters over Trump 2020 lawn signs

At least two residents who displayed pro-Trump flags and signs on their front lawns in small-town New Hampshire reportedly received letters threatening to burn down their homes if the presidential election did not result in a victory for Democratic candidate Joe Biden.

www.foxnews.com

A woman who asked to be identified only by her first name, Kelly, showed the letter she received to WMUR.

It read: “Dear neighbor, you have been identified by our group as being a Trump supporter. Your address has been added to our database as a target when we attack should Trump not concede the election. We recommend that you check your home insurance policy and make that it is current and that it has adequate coverage for fire damage. You have been given ‘Fair Warning.’”

 

[Blimey]

Suppression polls from 538 that missed it bigley in 2016.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

I'm glad you posted this because it is exactly what I've been saying. Here is what their stats gave best odds at happening. First map prediction, second map actual.

Note the shading on the states. No dark blue state voted red. WI, MI, PA were leaning blue (though a darker shade of blue than NC and FL) and they went red. But these were never considered locked-in-blue states. And NV, which was only slightly leaning blue did in fact go blue. As did NH--pale blue, and it went blue. NC and FL were barely blue to begin with and they went red.

So the real "upset" in all this is that WI, MIC, PA were leaning blue more than a little--but not all that heavily so, and they went red, and then two very pale blue also went red.

So the rest--what 45 states (?)--went exactly as predicted.

 

[Dr. Evil]

For those saying Trump will win, what are you looking at that makes you think that? I would be very cautious about signs, rallies, parades, etc. They are anecdotal at best.

Couldn't you say the same thing this time in 2016?

 

[Dr. Evil]

https://www.facebook.com/jennifer.k...cdbyIRkDp4v887s0JMJ5CtugAheMHo&__tn__=<,P-y-R
Jennifer Brooks

7atSponsoreohmdS ·
I’m headed to vote today and just got this from a friend. Make sure you pay attention when voting!
Beware when voting! Tell everyone you know.
The very first item is president. They are making it difficult for people in Arkansas to vote for Trump. There are 13 candidates running for president. Biden is listed number 1. Trump is number 8 which is on page 2 of the presidential ballot. When I did not see Trump on page 1, I hit next and it went to the US Senate. I had to hit the back button to go back to page 1 and saw another tab at the bottom that says "more". You have to hit that bar in order to get page 2 and Trump is number 2 on the second page. There will be a lot of people who want to vote for Trump who will more than likely miss it unless they talk to a supervisor for help.

 

[4WHLDRFTN]

 

[Dr. Evil]

Trump live in PA now just referred to it as the laptop from hell lol. He also did something different. Live at the rally he played a montage of Biden and Harris clips saying they will get rid of fracking.

 

[Silent Bob]

Maybe I’ve been watching too much Tim Pool, but I think Trump wins. All the polls showing Biden ahead don’t make sense to me when compared with other information. Biden needs to flip about 40 electoral votes, l just can’t see where that happens
- the dems far left push has turned off a lot of the Hispanic voters in FL(preferred Hillary 73 to 37, Trump vs Biden is around 50/50)
- John James is currently tied/ slightly ahead in the senate race in Michigan, leading me to believe Trump wins there
- dems are leading early voting in Ohio and elsewhere which is typical, but are underperforming and not as far ahead as expected
- republicans have outpaced dems in voter registration in PA, turning PA to an R+ state
- Trump won 8% of the black vote in 2016, approval in many polls now is above 20%
- don’t remember the numbers, but approval in the Jewish community is also higher than usual for a republican

 

[Phazer]

Maybe I’ve been watching too much Tim Pool, but I think Trump wins. All the polls showing Biden ahead don’t make sense to me when compared with other information. Biden needs to flip about 40 electoral votes, l just can’t see where that happens
- the dems far left push has turned off a lot of the Hispanic voters in FL(preferred Hillary 73 to 37, Trump vs Biden is around 50/50)
- John James is currently tied/ slightly ahead in the senate race in Michigan, leading me to believe Trump wins there
- dems are leading early voting in Ohio and elsewhere which is typical, but are underperforming and not as far ahead as expected
- republicans have outpaced dems in voter registration in PA, turning PA to an R+ state
- Trump won 8% of the black vote in 2016, approval in many polls now is above 20%
- don’t remember the numbers, but approval in the Jewish community is also higher than usual for a republican

I hope that everything you wrote is correct.

I've donated to John James' campaign. He looks like a great guy (veteran, entrepreneur, constitutionalist).

 

[holdover]

Biden hasnt held any events that were open to the public like Trump has.

So he's going state to state campaigning in events that the public is not invited to? Never seen anyone do that before.

 

[holdover]

I do know biden is weaker in swing states than Hilary was in 2016.

It won't matter if blue state nuts vote for biden in record numbers, it still doesn't change the election.


Still, it's going to be nasty. Buy more ammo if you can.

You have to remember , Trump didnt win by a landslide in the popular vote. Plenty of idiots who think Biden's democratic socialism will save us from Trump the fashist.

 

[Phauxtoe]

Cheating by Dems with mail voting is the issue i am worried about