Six US Cities most likely to be nuked first

[spat]

I assumed a missile launch for the EMP.

Yes, the nuke fingerprint could tell you a source if that source material was on file( which reactor created it). But what if it’s not on file ? Or was a Soviet era device ( refurbished). Are we going to launch against Russia not knowing if it was stolen when the Soviet Union collapsed. Or if Russia would launch more, regardless if they had something to do with it or not? ( we probably would do a B2/B21/cruise missile thing -but who knows) . Mutually Assured destruction isn’t as clear cut as it used to be.

I believe we know with near certainty. We would also know if it was a stolen Soviet warhead.

We can even tell by flying a plane near an underground test hours after it happens. The technique is that sensitive and we spend a lot of money and manpower to build and maintain a comprehensive database.

Even for pure uranium weapons that never touched a reactor, we know who refined them.

People frequently talk about "well, if it's just one, do you want to go all out in response", but all the wargaming everyone has ever done shows that 100% it *will* turn into a full exchange eventually, and you are better off escalating as fast as possible.

Think of it like this, if you are arresting Bonnie and Clyde and you *know* they are going to resist with fully automatic gun fire, you do not yell "drop your weapons" and wait for them to shoot first.

 

[Truebeliever]

I believe we know with near certainty. We would also know if it was a stolen Soviet warhead.

We can even tell by flying a plane near an underground test hours after it happens. The technique is that sensitive and we spend a lot of money and manpower to build and maintain a comprehensive database.

Even for pure uranium weapons that never touched a reactor, we know who refined them.

People frequently talk about "well, if it's just one, do you want to go all out in response", but all the wargaming everyone has ever done shows that 100% it *will* turn into a full exchange eventually, and you are better off escalating as fast as possible.

Think of it like this, if you are arresting Bonnie and Clyde and you *know* they are going to resist with fully automatic gun fire, you do not yell "drop your weapons" and wait for them to shoot first.

I can definitely see it escalating to a full exchange with Russia or China but what of North Korea and Iran ? We could melt them into slag but they could only make a limited exchange compared to us or the other two near peers.
But just think of the damage of just one used by a terrorist group . We would evacuate other cities just in case they had more. The economic damage would be tremendous. It would make hurricane Katrina and 9/11 look tame by comparison.

 

[spat]

I can definitely see it escalating to a full exchange with Russia or China but what of North Korea and Iran ? We could melt them into slag but they could only make a limited exchange compared to us or the other two near peers.
But just think of the damage of just one used by a terrorist group . We would evacuate other cities just in case they had more. The economic damage would be tremendous. It would make hurricane Katrina and 9/11 look tame by comparison.

N Korea has a few dozen nukes at least. They have recently announced the intent to make a bunch more. Since even China only has a few hundred the main difference between even those 2 is delivery capability.

The truth is, once you develop the capability to produce a nuke, you have the ability to produce an assembly line for them. You can have hundreds in a few years, even if you're N Korea.

As for evacuating the cities, where do you evacuate cities *to* ?

You could maybe with great expense evacuate *a* major city. That alone would have devastating economic consequences. But where would you evacuate several to ?

I can see the idiots in charge attempting this. It would make the covid nursing home disaster seem like a minor oops in comparison.

 

[Truebeliever]

N Korea has a few dozen nukes at least. They have recently announced the intent to make a bunch more. Since even China only has a few hundred the main difference between even those 2 is delivery capability.

The truth is, once you develop the capability to produce a nuke, you have the ability to produce an assembly line for them. You can have hundreds in a few years, even if you're N Korea.

As for evacuating the cities, where do you evacuate cities *to* ?

You could maybe with great expense evacuate *a* major city. That alone would have devastating economic consequences. But where would you evacuate several to ?

I can see the idiots in charge attempting this. It would make the covid nursing home disaster seem like a minor oops in comparison.

The idea is to spread out . It will be into the smaller towns and more rural areas.
They explain it in this old history channel special. I found a link to the trailer and not the full special

 

[spat]

The idea is to spread out . It will be into the smaller towns and more rural areas.
They explain it in this old history channel special. I found a link to the trailer and not the full special

Given the population of the major cities, I'm not sure how that's possible.

You're talking about relocating half the population of the country. All of them would have to be supported 100% by the government, since even the ones who had jobs would not be able to do them anymore.

Imagine taking every small town in America and doubling its population. At the same time you are going to eliminate all the contribution the cities would make to the economy.


The farms might still grow enough food, but the distribution system is built to get it to the cities and distribute it there. How would you even feed those people?

 

[Truebeliever]

Given the population of the major cities, I'm not sure how that's possible.

You're talking about relocating half the population of the country. All of them would have to be supported 100% by the government, since even the ones who had jobs would not be able to do them anymore.

Imagine taking every small town in America and doubling its population. At the same time you are going to eliminate all the contribution the cities would make to the economy.


The farms might still grow enough food, but the distribution system is built to get it to the cities and distribute it there. How would you even feed those people?

That was one of the major issues discussed in the documentary with the emergency management people they interviewed.
Cities like Los Angeles would be a less valuable target because it’s spread out already but NYC, Chicago, Boston, etc are dense in comparison.
They speak of how the infrastructure would be overwhelmed.
I linked the wrong YouTube video. Here is the correct one

 

[HIghlander]

Try downloading from one of the files. Click on the upper right to open page with files.