THE ADVENTURES OF THE 47TH PRESIDENT....

[SonOfSun]

Are you seriously claiming this is a permanent situation ?

You think the strait will still be closed in 6 months ?

If gas is back under $3 by the end of the year are you prepared to admit you are wrong about Trump ?

I think total time closed will hit 6 months, possibly beyond that. Depending on how and why it ends, yes. Ie. If Israel steamrolls Iran and Lebanon on their own, no - because Trump doesn't control them. If it's because of Trump's actions, sure.

 

[Defilade]

Are you seriously claiming this is a permanent situation ?

You think the strait will still be closed in 6 months ?

If gas is back under $3 by the end of the year are you prepared to admit you are wrong about Trump ?

Under $3 ? Deal!

 

[spat]

I'd mostly trace it back to Obama in 2014 and how he handle Crimea. He emboldened and positioned Putin to do more of his antics. If he was swatted down then, Ukraine wouldn't have happened.

That's certainly a major factor, but i think the immediate cause was Biden announcing he would follow Obama's policy from Crimea, which is to say do nothing substantial about it.

 

[spat]

I think total time closed will hit 6 months, possibly beyond that. Depending on how and why it ends, yes. Ie. If Israel steamrolls Iran and Lebanon on their own, no - because Trump doesn't control them. If it's because of Trump's actions, sure.

I think it will be open well before 6 months, but I acknowledge that there is a possibility it might not.

But even that is a long way from what Russia has sunk into in Ukraine.

To make a clear date for "open" we would need to establish an agreed definition of what "open" means.

Iran already announced it was "open", but i'm not sure that's the criteria we'd want to pick.

https://www.marineinsight.com/iran-announces-strait-of-hormuz-is-open-to-all-ships-if-they-cooperate-with-its-navy-2/

I'd think some level of commercial traffic flowing is the real metric, maybe half of the pre war baseline level so 50 ships per day ?