Things are heating up between the US and Iran thread

[Drinkthekoolaid]

I sometimes wonder if one of the reasons we keep the Ukraine war going is to watch the development of drone technology in warfare. We are learning lessons at the expense of the Ukrainians and Russians. No skin off our nose.

I've made the comparison that the Ukraine war is to WW3 what the Spanish civil war was for WW2. An actual real time battle lab to test and observe.

The biggest learning here is speed and rapid follow on logistics efficiency is key. You cannot get bogged down and allow trenches and static lines to form or it will become a hellscape.

An advancing army now is going to have to be willing to trade heavy initial casualties in an assault to break through and not allow an advance to stall.


Don't need B2 to bomb the houthis

Signs U.S. Massing B-2 Spirit Bombers In Diego Garcia

U.S. airpower is flowing to the Indian Ocean outpost as threats to Iran escalate and the bombing campaign against the Houthis grinds on.

www.twz.com

UPDATED (AGAIN) 7:55 PM EDT -- EXTREMELY SENSITIVE - Subscribers Only

This content is for Subscribers Only --

halturnerradioshow.com

Too many things are lining up. Iran is Almost to the point of a fully operational nuke program, the houthis are pulling their shenanigans and Israel is in the middle.

I don't agree with a lot of this guys (the British physicist being interviewed) US political opinions but he makes a lot of really interesting points to consider. He has a well thought out argument, much of which I already believe, other ideas I had not yet pondered.



Shit is going down sooner or later, one way or another.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

I saw that there are generals in Iran calling for a preemptive strike on Diego Garcia....

 

[holdover]

I'm getting the feeling things might pop off in the near future with iran.

I've been wrong on these things before plenty of times, but I'm getting that vibe again. I think something is going to happen shortly.

You cant argue that it looks like it might happen soon , But I dont think Trump will pull the trigger, What do we in the US gain from it vs the cost? Not a whole hell of a lot. And the Iranians are not going to back down. Its a muslim pride thing , I could be wrong too, Trump says what he means and mean what he says most of the time .

 

[C3D]

I saw that there are generals in Iran calling for a preemptive strike on Diego Garcia....

And I want to have a threesome with Jennifer Lawrence and Shailene Woodley. I have no more way to get that done than Iran has to bomb DG.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

You cant argue that it looks like it might happen soon , But I dont think Trump will pull the trigger, What do we in the US gain from it vs the cost? Not a whole hell of a lot. And the Iranians are not going to back down. Its a muslim pride thing , I could be wrong too, Trump says what he means and mean what he says most of the time .

Honestly I don't know what to think. But I know it's serious as shit.

Everyone knew the "plot climax" is coming to a conclusion sooner or later in terms of irans nuclear program. Anyone with a brain could see for the past 10 years sooner or later somewhere along the time line it was going to occur that either we do nothing and allow Iran to become a nuclear state or we will have to physically intervene to stop them. If we do nothing then by default of not making a decision or choice that in itself is a choice to have to live with a nuclear Iranian Muslim theocracy and everything else that means.

I honestly don't know what to think.

But I analyze things all day and I would look at it like this. The cost of 1 flight hour for a B2 is rumored to be around ~135k. That's $135,000 per hour it's in the air. That's in man labor hours and time for the maintenance and spare parts costs for replacement items. Do the math on what it would take to send 7 B2 bombers on 18 hour flights to Diego Garcia, perform familiarization training flights in the area, all the maintenance support personnel need to be deployed and they need to be flown out on multiple heavy lifts. And you need to send a bunch of tanker support for it all. And that's just 1 way not even the return. The price tag gets shockingly high very quickly for a deployment of this magnitude.

And strategically it's really closer to half or a majority of our operational B2 fleet. I think it's reported that there are 19 or 20 of them total. So doing the math likely a couple are set aside for training, testing and development at like Edwards AFB or area 51 in that role. And another 1 or 2 are likely down for extended heavy maintenance at any point. You pretty quickly get down to like 14 or 15 actual mission capable planes and the report is that 7 are in Diego Garcia. So when you look at it that way it's even more impactful.

You don't just willy nilly do it, I think it's pretty serious.

 

[TEOTWAWKI inc.]

Honestly I don't know what to think. But I know it's serious as shit.

Everyone knew the "plot climax" is coming to a conclusion sooner or later in terms of irans nuclear program. Anyone with a brain could see for the past 10 years sooner or later somewhere along the time line it was going to occur that either we do nothing and allow Iran to become a nuclear state or we will have to physically intervene to stop them. If we do nothing then by default of not making a decision or choice that in itself is a choice to have to live with a nuclear Iranian Muslim theocracy and everything else that means.

I honestly don't know what to think.

But I know this. The cost of 1 flight hour for a B2 is rumored to be around ~135k. That's $135,000 per hour it's in the air. That's in man labor hours and time for the maintenance and spare parts costs for replacement items. Do the math on what it would take to send 7 B2 bombers on 18 hour flights to Diego Garcia, perform familiarization training flights in the area, all the maintenance support personnel need to be deployed and they need to be flown out on multiple heavy lifts. And you need to send a bunch of tanker support for it all. And that's just 1 way not even the return. The price tag gets shockingly high very quickly for a deployment of this magnitude. You don't just willy nilly do it, I think it's pretty serious.

We probably already paid for all that shit to be moving 24/7/365, so they may as well put it to good use.

I'd prefer to not be at war for a while, but if we need to get mixed up in something, we need to show the world how insanely massive our dick is compared to everyone else's.

 

[Cooolone]

Drone's, their use, the modification and changes that have occured in such a short time are incredible! More akin to realizing a Trench was needed to offset the accuracy created in a rifled barrel...

Jamming signal being one of the biggest impediments, drones use fiber optic cable now and can range 15 miles by wire (glass lol)... That's just nuts!

It has changed the game! And soon, unmanned drone, plane, ground units will be more prominent, and whomever reaches the highest, farthest and quickest will win.

AI, Terminators may not be so far fetched after all... Crazy shit!

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Drone's, their use, the modification and changes that have occured in such a short time are incredible! More akin to realizing a Trench was needed to offset the accuracy created in a rifled barrel...

Jamming signal being one of the biggest impediments, drones use fiber optic cable now and can range 15 miles by wire (glass lol)... That's just nuts!

It has changed the game! And soon, unmanned drone, plane, ground units will be more prominent, and whomever reaches the highest, farthest and quickest will win.

AI, Terminators may not be so far fetched after all... Crazy shit!

I have made the comparison elsewhere that new war theories and technologies are being tested out in real time in an actual battle lab just like in the 1930s Spanish civil war. Germany learned a lot from that conflict. Just the same that other countries are studying what is happening in Ukraine.


And totally agree. Skynet and terminators are no longer science fiction but near future possibilities.

 

[spat]

You cant argue that it looks like it might happen soon , But I dont think Trump will pull the trigger, What do we in the US gain from it vs the cost? Not a whole hell of a lot. And the Iranians are not going to back down. Its a muslim pride thing , I could be wrong too, Trump says what he means and mean what he says most of the time .

What could we lose if Iran gets nukes ?

Preventing that is what we gain.

 

[spat]

We probably already paid for all that shit to be moving 24/7/365, so they may as well put it to good use.

I'd prefer to not be at war for a while, but if we need to get mixed up in something, we need to show the world how insanely massive our dick is compared to everyone else's.

Politicians like to drag out wars as long as possible by trying to keep everything "proportional". They look at war as diplomacy by other means. They look at the fighting itself as a goal by which they can gain personal power and riches.

And that always turns into a shit show. See Vietnam, and the current Ukraine situation for examples.

The proper way to conduct war is not to say "how much should we strike the enemy". The proper way is to say "bring as much violence as we can, as fast as we can and get this over with once and for all as soon as possible"

WWII after D-day and Desert Storm are examples there.

So, *if* we need to go in somewhere, we should bring the full might of the US military to bear as quickly as possible, and the goal shouldn't be to bring the enemy to the negotiation table. It should be to eliminate their ability to wage war at all.

Concerns for "collateral damage" should be dismissed out of hand, you strike military targets with as much force as the target merits, regardless of where it is or what else gets in the way.

 

[holdover]

What could we lose if Iran gets nukes ?

Preventing that is what we gain.

We lose nothing.

 

[holdover]

The proper way to conduct war is not to say "how much should we strike the enemy". The proper way is to say "bring as much violence as we can, as fast as we can and get this over with once and for all as soon as possible"

Yeah but then how will they make money?

 

[spat]

We lose nothing.

You think there are no consequences to the US if Iran gets nukes ?

The country who's national slogan is "death to America" gets nukes, and you don't think that could present a problem for us ?

How short sighted can you be ?

 

[holdover]

No I dont. I dont believe for one minute they would ever use nukes against us except in self defense.

 

[TEOTWAWKI inc.]

No I dont. I dont believe for one minute they would ever use nukes against us except in self defense.

Iran may not, but their proxies sure would.

 

[holdover]

Funny thing is, it is the very threats against Iran which are driving them to obtain nukes

 

[spat]

No I dont. I dont believe for one minute they would ever use nukes against us except in self defense.

How about Isreal ? You don't think Iran would nuke Isreal?

You think we can just sit back and ignore it if *that* happens ?

You need to look a few steps ahead.

There are things they very well might do that will set in motion a chain of events that absolutely *will* drag us into a shit show.

You wouldn't think some minor Austrian noble getting assassinated would matter to us either, but it's a small planet.

Your attitude is like living in a small apartment building and saying "it's none of my business if the kid in 2c likes playing with matches".

 

[holdover]

How about Isreal ? You don't think Iran would nuke Isreal?

Not our fight, Why bring Isreal into it? , Your willing to kill thousands of Iranians spend hundreds of billions of dollars to defend Israel when they haven't done anything to us?
just how much blood and treasure are we going to spend defending these people and why?

You think we can just sit back and ignore it if *that* happens ?

Why not? I dont see the strategic or economic value of defending such a tiny nation, If Isreal was wiped off the map It would make no difference to Europe or the US , Wouldnt change anything. We wouldnt collaspe, We wouldnt have higher prices , makes no difference. Show me the value of defending them.

You need to look a few steps ahead.

There are things they very well might do that will set in motion a chain of events that absolutely *will* drag us into a shit show.

The only thing dragging us into a shit show is the fact We are are willing to defend them to begin with. We gave them money, Nukes and and a massive military , Thats enough. More than enough.

Your attitude is like living in a small apartment building and saying "it's none of my business if the kid in 2c likes playing with matches".

So you kill the kid? Because thats exactly what your doing.

The problem with Isreal is that both sides make claims regarding the land that goes back thousands of years because both peoples lived there. Its the chicken or the egg argument . Nobody can say with 100% certainty who is right or wrong . the smartest people in the world cant solve the issue . And really, its not our issue to solve . Its something those two partys need to resolve for themselves. I take Issue with making Isreal's enemy's our enemy's. with no benefit. We should not be involved in it . Let them settle it .

If you can demonstrate the vital national, strategic interests in defending them , I can be swayed to thinking its worth it. But as far as I can see they offer us nothing and ask for everything.

I also feel that launching an attack against Russia because they invaded Estonia is on the same level. Its not worth the blood and treasure . and its none of our business.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

One thing Iran has learned is I'm sure they are looking at 2 recent examples; Libya and north Korea.

Remember how well things worked out for Qadaffi when he actually tried to cooperate and opened up and dismantled his weapons program? The guy was a vile evil person, but the outcome and what happened to him and Libya surely isn't lost on Iran.

How about north Korea? The norks kept giving the world the middle finger now they are a fledgling nuclear power and currently building nuclear subs even. They have essentially guaranteed their survival to not be pre-emptively attacked and regime changed except in all of the most dire circumstances. The norks can continue to be as belligerent as they want because now they have nukes and as long as they don't jump the shark and do something really stupid the rest of the world will complain and moan but isn't actually willing to do anything.


In this case those 2 examples of one dictator being wiped out, country devolving into chaos and ending up on the end of a rope compared to a country which is gaining regional influence and has for the short term at least guaranteed regime continuation.

In this example it's clear, Might makes right.

Iran has to have learned this.


I HATE the idea of a nuclear armed Iran. Nothing good will come from it. But I also hate the idea of going to war with them to prevent an eventuality. Even if we utterly bomb the shit out of them and trigger global chaos and likely the deaths of many Americans both military and civilians because you can believe that there will be attacks here at home. Best case scenario maybe we set their nuclear program back 10 years. Then what we do this all over again in another decade? They are gain the knowledge and will just learn from this and take further measures to protect and harden their nuclear program 2.0

If they are dead set on achieving a goal of being a nuclear state there is nothing we can do to prevent it short of turning their entire country into a glass sheet but do we have the stomach to do that? Do we have the resiliency to willing isolate us from the world as we would be the new pariah state the rest of the world would collectively hate?

I'm trying to be pragmatic because the world is not idealistic, it is what it is.

 

[spat]

One thing Iran has learned is I'm sure they are looking at 2 recent examples; Libya and north Korea.

Remember how well things worked out for Qadaffi when he actually tried to cooperate and opened up and dismantled his weapons program? The guy was a vile evil person, but the outcome and what happened to him and Libya surely isn't lost on Iran.

How about north Korea? The norks kept giving the world the middle finger now they are a fledgling nuclear power and currently building nuclear subs even. They have essentially guaranteed their survival to not be pre-emptively attacked and regime changed except in all of the most dire circumstances. The norks can continue to be as belligerent as they want because now they have nukes and as long as they don't jump the shark and do something really stupid the rest of the world will complain and moan but isn't actually willing to do anything.


In this case those 2 examples of one dictator being wiped out, country devolving into chaos and ending up on the end of a rope compared to a country which is gaining regional influence and has for the short term at least guaranteed regime continuation.

In this example it's clear, Might makes right.

Iran has to have learned this.


I HATE the idea of a nuclear armed Iran. Nothing good will come from it. But I also hate the idea of going to war with them to prevent an eventuality. Even if we utterly bomb the shit out of them and trigger global chaos and likely the deaths of many Americans both military and civilians because you can believe that there will be attacks here at home. Best case scenario maybe we set their nuclear program back 10 years. Then what we do this all over again in another decade? They are gain the knowledge and will just learn from this and take further measures to protect and harden their nuclear program 2.0

If they are dead set on achieving a goal of being a nuclear state there is nothing we can do to prevent it short of turning their entire country into a glass sheet but do we have the stomach to do that? Do we have the resiliency to willing isolate us from the world as we would be the new pariah state the rest of the world would collectively hate?

I'm trying to be pragmatic because the world is not idealistic, it is what it is.

We have a long history of attempting an isolationist policy.

It never ends well.

Because imperialist regimes never stop.

and eventually they will take something you can't ignore.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

We have a long history of attempting an isolationist policy.

It never ends well.

Because imperialist regimes never stop.

and eventually they will take something you can't ignore.

Which country do you see as the imperialist regime?


There are basically bad options and worse options. If you were an advisor and president Trump asked for your opinion, what would you say on how to handle Iran? Not trying to put you on the spot just genuinely curious.

 

[spat]

Which country do you see as the imperialist regime?


There are basically bad options and worse options. If you were an advisor and president Trump asked for your opinion, what would you say on how to handle Iran? Not trying to put you on the spot just genuinely curious.

Both Russia and Iran have imperialist ambitions.

China too.

All are held in check by the presence of US power.

And it would be absolutely a disaster for US interests if any of them were able to get what they want.

One of Trump's greatest strengths as POTUS is that our enemies fear him.

He needs to cultivate that.

The way he handled Iran during his last stint in office was perfect. He reminded them that they are powerless if we come after them, so do not provoke us.

This is in direct contrast to the way Biden and Obama handle things, where the image they project is "fuck with us a bit and you can easily extort truckload of cash from us".

If Trump needs to execute another Soleimani type strike to remind them of their position, then he should do it.

If it takes something "Operation Praying Mantis" size, then send it.

Better to execute a small operation today than get dragged into another Desert Shield/Storm later.

 

[holdover]

China is imperialist? They haven't invaded anyone e in 500 years.

 

[holdover]

If 2 allies of us went to war, which side should us back?

 

[Robin]

China is imperialist? They haven't invaded anyone e in 500 years.

Well Tibetan's might take issue with that statement, well the ones that are still alive anyway. And, well the Vietnamese have repelled their northern neighbors' incursions a few times, successfully, but it still counts.
Robin

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

China is imperialist? They haven't invaded anyone e in 500 years.

I think we are witnessing the dawn of the age of Chinese imperialism.

They are carefully bidding their time and planning for the opportune moment to expand. They have a stated goal and vision to have the Chinese race be the dominant global people. They want control. Just because they haven't attempted it "yet" doesn't mean that they are not imperialist minded.

I would also be willing to bet China is going hard into genetically engineered bio weapons that very heavily target Caucasian DNA vulnerabilities and are specifically tuned to not infect or afflict those same Chinese DNA versions.

I worry about China more than any other country. I think we are entering Thucydides Trap territory with them where it's almost inevitable for a great conflict to have a clear winner and loser to be the dominant power for the next 100 years.

 

[spat]

China is imperialist? They haven't invaded anyone e in 500 years.

No, they just plan to buy everything.

There are more ways to build an empire than just martial conquest.

 

[spat]

If 2 allies of us went to war, which side should us back?

Whichever is in our interest to back.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

If 2 allies of us went to war, which side should us back?

I would use leverage as an ally to both of them to try and have them work out a resolution before anyone else got dragged into it. I wouldn't want my allies fighting each other, ultimately it weakens your own interests if your allies strength became degraded, they become less useful to you.

 

[holdover]

Whichever is in our interest to back.

So just fuck your Other allie?