Total US Firearms: Not 300 Million, but 412-660 Million?

[livingston]

Total US Firearms: Not 300 Million, but 412-660 Million?

The typical estimate of the total number of firearms in the USA is about 300 million, depending on whom is queried. For example (some of these links are .pdf):

The numbers are all over the place, and many of them seem to recursively refer to one another, not exactly building confidence in the rigor of their development. But they seem to cluster around a Narrative-friendly 300 million. But what if that number is wrong?
Total US Firearms: Not 300 Million, but 412-660 Million? | WeaponsMan

 

[Phauxtoe]

i know people who un serialized old guns, there are lots of them.
go out in the back woods of PA, 100 yr old smith revolvers are a plenty

 

[Frankly]

There's been 11 million illegal immigrants for 30 years now, I guess enough of them leave that the millions flowing in balance the number ;-p

 

[NirvanaFan]

Nobody really has any idea, and that's the way it should be. Who knows how many older guns that were shipped to someone's house or bought from a store without a NICS check are still around.

 

[Phazer]

Total US Firearms: Not 300 Million, but 412-660 Million?

Dammit! They finally logged some of my recent purchases.

 

[eagleridge357]

NICS processed 23.5 million BGC in 2015. 2014= 19 million, 2013= 17 million, 2012= 12 million (all figures approx, except 2015). Add those 4 years and get 71 million. Take 90% of that (allowing 10 % for denials, errors, etc, which is a high figure), and get 63 million transfers (some of which include multiple gun sales) in 4 years time. divide 63 million by 300 million and get 21% of ALL guns in USA acquired in the past 4 years. (figure does not include those which have never been papered into the system) Sound right to you? It does not to me. I'd wager there are at least 600-800 million guns in the USA. NICS BGC is a good indicator of sales, although not an exact indicator. Why run a BGC if there is no transfer taking place? Lies from the gov again. And I'll just bet the illegal aliens number is way higher than 10-12 million. Still trust your gov? google NICS checks from 1998 to 2016
if you check this chart out, you will see my figures for 2012-2014 are LOW. Just to make a point
16 years=245 million checks figure out the math yourself

 

[pjzwtl]

NICS processed 23.5 million BGC in 2015. 2014= 19 million, 2013= 17 million, 2012= 12 million (all figures approx, except 2015). Add those 4 years and get 71 million. Take 90% of that (allowing 10 % for denials, errors, etc, which is a high figure), and get 63 million transfers (some of which include multiple gun sales) in 4 years time. divide 63 million by 300 million and get 21% of ALL guns in USA acquired in the past 4 years. (figure does not include those which have never been papered into the system) Sound right to you? It does not to me. I'd wager there are at least 600-800 million guns in the USA. NICS BGC is a good indicator of sales, although not an exact indicator. Why run a BGC if there is no transfer taking place? Lies from the gov again. And I'll just bet the illegal aliens number is way higher than 10-12 million. Still trust your gov? google NICS checks from 1998 to 2016
if you check this chart out, you will see my figures for 2012-2014 are LOW. Just to make a point
16 years=245 million checks figure out the math yourself

Common core or liberal math dictates that since you didn't go back beyond 16 years those firearms do not exist... answer 245 million

 

[Toecutter]

It has to be more then they think as stated the good Ole usa is buying guns at a record rate over 20 million NCIS checks a year. Let's try and crack a billion guys !

 

[eagleridge357]

I did make one mistake in that post....did not consider that the 245 million over 16 yrs includes used guns already in the system, not just new factory sales added to the system, but still, correct for that and you still get a higher figure than 300 million. Sorry. If you go back to when NICS began you will get a humunguous amount of checks, correct for used vs new sales, and get an idea of total in the USA. Don't forget to include all the guns that were floating around before Brady, NICS, and 1968 serialization of firearms, which is an enormous amount of guns pre-NICS/Brady. 600-800 is a good estimate IMHO ------and still every year more people are killed with fists and bats than with handguns.

 

[Phazer]

... still every year more people are killed with fists and bats than with handguns.

Shhh.....I don't want them to confiscate hands. I need mine to eat. I like to eat.

 

[livingston]

Mandated by the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act of 1993 and launched by the FBI on November 30, 1998, NICS is used by Federal Firearms Licensees (FFLs) to instantly determine whether a prospective buyer is eligible to buy firearms.
National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) — FBI

a lot of guns out there before this ... What percentage of guns get passes down generation to generation that never have seen this check..???

 

[Greywolf224]

Any number you come up with times 3 and you may get a ball park figure.
And you will never know.

You youngsters only see you know about the laws that Have been on the books since the late 90s.

Assume the older folks on this forum have been purchasing firearms in the 60s 70s and 80s how do you account for them. Let me save you time. You don't and never will.!

 

[Deplorable Me]

As long as it keeps the progressive social engineers guessing.

 

[Celt]

ah ha, they found gunners stash..

 

[Snappo]

NICS processed 23.5 million BGC in 2015. 2014= 19 million, 2013= 17 million, 2012= 12 million (all figures approx, except 2015). Add those 4 years and get 71 million. Take 90% of that (allowing 10 % for denials, errors, etc, which is a high figure), and get 63 million transfers (some of which include multiple gun sales) in 4 years time. divide 63 million by 300 million and get 21% of ALL guns in USA acquired in the past 4 years. (figure does not include those which have never been papered into the system) Sound right to you? It does not to me. I'd wager there are at least 600-800 million guns in the USA. NICS BGC is a good indicator of sales, although not an exact indicator. Why run a BGC if there is no transfer taking place? Lies from the gov again. And I'll just bet the illegal aliens number is way higher than 10-12 million. Still trust your gov? google NICS checks from 1998 to 2016
if you check this chart out, you will see my figures for 2012-2014 are LOW. Just to make a point
16 years=245 million checks figure out the math yourself

Every time someone sells their 69 GTO does not mean Pontiac just built another car.

 

[Greywolf224]

Every time someone sells their 69 GTO does not mean Pontiac just built another car.

Or what if I sell my 76 Formula.

 

[Snappo]

I did make one mistake in that post....did not consider that the 245 million over 16 yrs includes used guns already in the system, not just new factory sales added to the system, but still, correct for that and you still get a higher figure than 300 million. Sorry. If you go back to when NICS began you will get a humunguous amount of checks, correct for used vs new sales, and get an idea of total in the USA. Don't forget to include all the guns that were floating around before Brady, NICS, and 1968 serialization of firearms, which is an enormous amount of guns pre-NICS/Brady. 600-800 is a good estimate IMHO ------and still every year more people are killed with fists and bats than with handguns.

At an event-by-event level, a stolen 747 is way more dangerous than an AR15. A person would not succeed in taking out a skyscraper filled with a few thousand people with an AR. The media has trained the population to respond to certain news. Shootings cause people to stare at the TV screen. Then advertisers pay more when lots of people are staring. Capitalism exploiting lemmings is the real story we live every time we turn on a TV. But how do you fix that other than to tell folks to go outside and play.

 

[Snappo]

Or what if I sell my 76 Formula.

I'm never selling my supercharged Impala SS is all I know. So Chevy may have to make another car for the next guy.

 

[Plater1]

The number of firearms in this country is a meaningless number. If its 100 million or 100 billion there is no statistical relevance. The REAL important number is how many gun owners. Guns don't vote(or commit crimes), people do!

 

[Blimey]

The 300M figure is definitely crap. It's an old figure and just based on the number of guns sold in the last five years it's not true (i.e. find an estimate from five years back and add the background checks since). I would say the number must be the better part of half a billion to be honest.

Oh it looks like somebody beat me to the punch on that

 

[eagleridge357]

If one gun averages 1-1/2" x 4" x 16" (combining and averaging dimensions from handguns and longguns), then each gun occupies a volume of 96 sq" or .055 cubic ft. Therefore 800 million guns would occupy 800 million x .055 cu ft = 44 million cubic feet. If confiscation happens, a hole to bury these guns would need to be 2 feet deep x 22 million square feet, or about a mile square x 2 feet deep. If 800 million guns were melted, a hole 1 feet deep about the size of NYC would be required. Or, a hole 10 feet in diameter by 525,000 feet deep is required (is the earth that thick? dunno) Don't ask why I care, I just thought it would be fun to imagine. Now imagine if the UN has it's way and ALL the guns on planet earth are melted down. WHEW! Where is a hole that size?

 

[Koz]

The count of guns in the US is a totally nebulous number. Kinda like the number of bimbos Hillary has trashed because Bill boinked them.

 

[Robin]

Total US Firearms: Not 300 Million, but 412-660 Million?

So fucking what!
Robni

 

[Criticalt]

Well Ive only got 4 guns, just ask NYS, they have them on file.

 

[eagleridge357]

Mine were just all stolen, I have none left. They also absconded with all my ammo, holsters, mags, all of it. I guess I'll just have to live with it and file a report. Back to square one. Thank God they did not find the knives, bats, poisons, explosives, animals trained to kill, and other non-booming defenders of life and property.

 

[Criticalt]

They will never get my secret weapon!!!

 

[Greywolf224]

They will never get my secret weapon!!!
View attachment 2398

How did you get a hold of my X-wife!

 

[4excal]

As we all should know by now..all polls and estimates are totally false and unprovable..from guns, to illegals, to friggan US citizens that aren't counted on the US Census due to homesteading or just not wanting to be found..all statistics are BS estimates.