U.S. Warning Europe That Russia May Be Planning Ukraine Invasion

[tirwin1]

I think you underestimate the long term consequences of Ukraine or Taiwan being conquered.

You are correct about conquest being older than history, and that it is almost inevitable.

What you're wrong about is thinking that this is just about who gets to run a couple of minor countries.

In the past conquest had regional reach only. Most of the world wouldn't have even known about it.

But for the last 2 centuries or so it has had a global reach. In today's hyper connected world either would have an immediate and disasterous effect, followed by a much larger issue.

These things have a habit of turning into world wars.

Do you think we fought the 1st gulf war because we give a shit who's in charge of that tiny piece of sand ?

We fought the first (and second) Gulf wars because we needed middle east oil. Due to fracking we are essentially energy self sufficient. So the middle east can (literally) go pound sand.

Neither Ukraine nor Taiwan provide critical resources. The democrats think Ukraine is critical because that is how they launder billions of dollars (aid money goes to Ukraine; Ukraine hires American consulting firms who happen to employ children and relatives of democrat party leaders; aid dollars are returned to this country). But apart from the opportunity for graft neither nation is critical to the US.

But people say conquest of the Ukraine or Taiwan would only embolden the dictatorships of Russia and china. That is true but the gains would be short lived. The truth is that both Russia and china are dying states. They are both in a demographic death spiral that is impossible to reverse. They will die of their own accord. Because of their underlying instability we should seek to avoid getting entangled with anything that could lead to war.

If we are smart and play the long game we should let them implode and not give them an external threat to rally their people. Let them waste their very finite resources without sacrificing American lives.

If we were to go to war with china it should be based on their cooperation with the Mexican cartels to flood this country with fentanyl that results in 100,000 lives lost per year. Not because they want to reclaim some lost real estate. I'm not joking. We should expel all Chinese college students and prevent any Chinese ship from docking at any US port as a first step. If that doesn't work then start sinking Chinese ships on the open water. Hit these cocksuckers where it hurts until they scream for peace.

Cold as it sounds we should not go to war over Ukraine or Taiwan.

 

[spat]

We fought the first (and second) Gulf wars because we needed middle east oil. Due to fracking we are essentially energy self sufficient. So the middle east can (literally) go pound sand.

Neither Ukraine nor Taiwan provide critical resources. The democrats think Ukraine is critical because that is how they launder billions of dollars (aid money goes to Ukraine; Ukraine hires American consulting firms who happen to employ children and relatives of democrat party leaders; aid dollars are returned to this country). But apart from the opportunity for graft neither nation is critical to the US.

But people say conquest of the Ukraine or Taiwan would only embolden the dictatorships of Russia and china. That is true but the gains would be short lived. The truth is that both Russia and china are dying states. They are both in a demographic death spiral that is impossible to reverse. They will die of their own accord. Because of their underlying instability we should seek to avoid getting entangled with anything that could lead to war.

If we are smart and play the long game we should let them implode and not give them an external threat to rally their people. Let them waste their very finite resources without sacrificing American lives.

If we were to go to war with china it should be based on their cooperation with the Mexican cartels to flood this country with fentanyl that results in 100,000 lives lost per year. Not because they want to reclaim some lost real estate. I'm not joking. We should expel all Chinese college students and prevent any Chinese ship from docking at any US port as a first step. If that doesn't work then start sinking Chinese ships on the open water. Hit these cocksuckers where it hurts until they scream for peace.

Cold as it sounds we should not go to war over Ukraine or Taiwan.

We didn't need Kuwait's oil, ever.

We did need the rest of Middle East to remain stable enough to keep pumping it though.

While the US is energy independent (or nearly so), we can never supply the world. Living in a world where everyone else doesn't have oil would be a nightmare.

It would also cause drastic shortages in the US, even if we were pumping 150% of our needs, because we would be exporting tons of it.


Cold as it may seem, I DGAF about the fentanyl deaths. Drug cartels may have handed those people loaded guns, but their suicide is solely the result of them pulling the trigger themselves.

 

[tirwin1]

We didn't need Kuwait's oil, ever.

We did need the rest of Middle East to remain stable enough to keep pumping it though.

While the US is energy independent (or nearly so), we can never supply the world. Living in a world where everyone else doesn't have oil would be a nightmare.

It would also cause drastic shortages in the US, even if we were pumping 150% of our needs, because we would be exporting tons of it.

Sorry spat but this is one time I have to disagree. A simple executive order could prevent the export of oil and keep all domestic oil here.

Living in a world where everyone else doesn't have oil is something we are going to have to deal with.

For a number of reasons America is going to start withdrawing from the rest of the world. It is inevitable. The implications for the rest of the world are not good. The worst thing in the world would be for us to get involved in a foreign war that does not serve any national interest. In my mind we are closer to imperial Russia before the first world war - a country that on paper is a huge adversary but in reality has so many internal contradictions that the next war could topple the government and start a left wing revolution.

 

[GOPerfect]

I think you underestimate the long term consequences of Ukraine or Taiwan being conquered.

You are correct about conquest being older than history, and that it is almost inevitable.

What you're wrong about is thinking that this is just about who gets to run a couple of minor countries.

In the past conquest had regional reach only. Most of the world wouldn't have even known about it.

But for the last 2 centuries or so it has had a global reach. In today's hyper connected world either would have an immediate and disasterous effect, followed by a much larger issue.

These things have a habit of turning into world wars.

Do you think we fought the 1st gulf war because we give a shit who's in charge of that tiny piece of sand ?

I do not underestimate either at all.

 

[livingston]

We have a generation taught to hate this country... Not everyone of course ,,, But enough are out there to be a big problem if we are ever in a war like WW2.

 

[tirwin1]

Cold as it may seem, I DGAF about the fentanyl deaths. Drug cartels may have handed those people loaded guns, but their suicide is solely the result of them pulling the trigger themselves.

I understand your point. However, I believe addiction is somehow related to genetics, i.e. there are people who are genetically predisposed to addictive behavior. Give fentanyl to 100 different people and most will do it once. A small subset will have it trigger something that makes them continue to crave it. I think the chinese believe that as well and want to flood the US with fentanyl as just another way of weakening this country. The alliance with the cartels is a testament to their evil designs. They know what they are doing. They would never allow us to do something similar to their population.

Hence my justification for aggressive retaliation even if it starts a shooting war. First we hit them where it hurts. Expel all their college students and then prevent their ships from docking here until the fentanyl traffic stops. Then start sinking ships on the open seas. Their navy cannot protect their merchant fleet so we could easily pick them off. Sooner or later they would get the message.

 

[spat]

I do not underestimate either at all.

I think the consequences are WWIII.

It you think they are any less than that, or you think we will be able to sit it out, then I think you underestimate them.

 

[spat]

Sorry spat but this is one time I have to disagree. A simple executive order could prevent the export of oil and keep all domestic oil here.

Living in a world where everyone else doesn't have oil is something we are going to have to deal with.

For a number of reasons America is going to start withdrawing from the rest of the world. It is inevitable. The implications for the rest of the world are not good. The worst thing in the world would be for us to get involved in a foreign war that does not serve any national interest. In my mind we are closer to imperial Russia before the first world war - a country that on paper is a huge adversary but in reality has so many internal contradictions that the next war could topple the government and start a left wing revolution.

We could forbid export, or more likely heavily tarrif it, but that would not insulate us from the consequences of the rest of the world burning down around us.

 

[spat]

I understand your point. However, I believe addiction is somehow related to genetics, i.e. there are people who are genetically predisposed to addictive behavior. Give fentanyl to 100 different people and most will do it once. A small subset will have it trigger something that makes them continue to crave it. I think the chinese believe that as well and want to flood the US with fentanyl as just another way of weakening this country. The alliance with the cartels is a testament to their evil designs. They know what they are doing. They would never allow us to do something similar to their population.

Hence my justification for aggressive retaliation even if it starts a shooting war. First we hit them where it hurts. Expel all their college students and then prevent their ships from docking here until the fentanyl traffic stops. Then start sinking ships on the open seas. Their navy cannot protect their merchant fleet so we could easily pick them off. Sooner or later they would get the message.

I also believe that addiction is largely an intrinsic property of the addict.

Deny them Fentanyl and they will find something else.

Just like heart disease is largely genetic, I don't think the answer is outlawing cholesterol, or blaming McDonalds for your grandpa's heart attack, even if he ate there every day.

 

[gun_slinger_boy]

I understand your point. However, I believe addiction is somehow related to genetics, i.e. there are people who are genetically predisposed to addictive behavior. Give fentanyl to 100 different people and most will do it once. A small subset will have it trigger something that makes them continue to crave it.

Even if true, no one made these people try drugs.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

The problem isnt that Russia wants to annex Ukraine, The problem is weapons on Russian doorstep which they have asked nicely to remove.
Like Putin said, ""if you dont remove the weapons, We will.""

Which I totally get. Russia thinks nato keeps inching closer. The Ukrainian border is only like 500 kilometers from Moscow. It's literally a 4 to 5 hour car ride.

It's comparable to having Russian backed forces in Raleigh Durham or Pittsburgh in that distance proximity to Washington DC.

I genuinely don't blame Russia for being concerned they would be dumb not to be. Nato isn't trying to take over the world but I still wouldn't want potentially hostile forces that close.

I don't believe nato nor modern day Russia are trying to take over the world. I think Russia wants to strategically enhance their long term survival chances and they see needing a buffer zone and what better choice than a large former Soviet state. I could be wrong but that's how I take it.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

I think Russia has Ukraine by the balls.

Europe will talk tough but at the end of the day they're not going to risk their citizens freezing to death this winter if they intervene and Russia cuts off the gas supply. The US will supply some weapons and training to try to deter Russia or make it more costly but no one will really do much other than that. With the gas pipeline as leverage that's why I think Russia will attack this winter once everything is good and frozen over for transport to not get bogged down, because they can operate in the cold and because any European intervention equals "close the valves" in the dead of winter.


IMO china is still by far the biggest threat. They can and will further interrupt the global supply chain and exacerbate the semi conductor chip shortage. And unfortunately we have talked a big game about defending Taiwan for decades. If we do nothing and in light of our recent geopolitical disasters our status as a paper tiger will be engrained. It will signal china's global rise and the eventual end of the US Petro dollar global reserve currency. And when that happens out debt goes kaboom and melts down. We truly are in a "lose, lose" scenario with china and Taiwan. If we intervene we are looking at ww3. If we do nothing we're screwed just the same.

I'm curious to see how the timing of the Olympics affects anything.

 

[MothMan]

FWIW

War movie about defeat of US Army is now China’s biggest film ever

The three-hourlong war epic, “The Battle at Lake Changjin,” has made a whopping $892 million since it was released in China.

nypost.com

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Russia says it may be forced to deploy mid-range nuclear missiles in Europe

MOSCOW (Reuters) -Russia said on Monday it may be forced to deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe in response to what it sees as NATO's plans to do the same. The warning from Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov raised the risk of a new arms build-up on the continent, with...

www.yahoo.com

 

[holdover]

Its far to dangerous for the US to defend Taiwan directly.I dont think the Chinese would hesitate using nukes

Another problem is, air superiority. The US cannot gain air superiority without attacking Chinese air fields on the mainland which would obviously result in attack on the US mainland. Which means it gets escalated beyond control. I cant see the US risking WW3 over Taiwan.

If the US feels it can gain local air superiority over Taiwan for a long enough time without attacking airbases in China it might gamble.I dont see that happening.

However it can give Taiwan the ability to defend itself with massive military aid

 

[livingston]

I have read that China can't or won't attack Tiwain during the winter due to the conditions Sea.
Russia has to wait for the ground to freeze to get its tanks into Ukraine.
ps. Isreal just initiated a Nationwide Alert and mobilization of all civilians and military. (But don't worry, it is just an exercise)
Funny, Talk about parallels to WWII. Sadam Husein's father worked with the Nazis during WWII. Now Iran is aligned with Russia.
Both are fighting together in Syria. But don't worry children just keep tearing down statues of Democrats from the Civil war.

 

[Mosinitis]

Russia is a bear, not a wolf.

 

[RedBreast21]

It will take a miracle to stop it. I don't think the average American wants anything to do with it. I'm done with young Americans being the global police. Many times directed by the globalist. I pay close attention to global financial institutions, markets and politics and I am not talking about American news sources. China and Putin met to agree upon a strategy for 2022 and U.S. mid term election and how to capitalize on it. IMHO, that meeting was how to coordinate China's take over of Taiwan and Putin the Ukraine. If the election results in Nov can't be massaged for a Democrat win, then the Republicans will simply be crying over spilled milk and will not take the nation to war. Deals have been struck the details I am not aware of. Global inflation is up significantly but gold is stable. Uncharted territory.

 

[ManualF150]

I had a feeling this is coming a few months ago:

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion (Published 2022)

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Folks if it ain't for the COVID crap, please, stock up on something and make reasonable plans.

 

[RedBreast21]

I had a feeling this is coming a few months ago:

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion (Published 2022)

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Folks if it ain't for the COVID crap, please, stock up on something and make reasonable plans.

One thing is for sure, with this adminstration and November just 10 months away, players like Putin and Xi will take full advantage of it.

 

[ManualF150]

One thing is for sure, with this adminstration and November just 10 months away, players like Putin and Xi will take full advantage of it.

I have a gut feeling they are already surrounding our coastlines and waiting for the next chess move.

Either our government is hiding it or China/Russia are that good at keeping secrets or a bit of both.

I just don't want to see a "checkmate" not in our favor.

 

[RedBreast21]

War doesn't benefit either China or Russia. Think future economic leadership.

China already has agreements with many countries like Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and African countries for access to mining materials for batteries to be used in the West's push for green new energy. Energy is a commodity. They will corner the electric battery energy market.

Putin already controls the natural gas the EU needs. Taking the Ukraine expands global deployment of it.

The U.S. is in a cultural civil war now of which neither party can get under control and won't IMHO.

Both the EU and the U.S. are not energy independent and are 10's of trillions in debt. The globe is in a financial melt down and a currency reset appears to be the only fix. Xi is partnering up with Ethereum to test it to see if China will be the first to roll out a digital currency. The EU central banks are in negative interest territory and the U.S. is now force to look at a digital dollar. Either that or go negative.

I serious mess for sure. Bullets flying mess? Not yet.

 

[holdover]

Its gonna happen. Russia will take back Ukraine. NATO wont come to the rescue . Support for sure. prolonged guerilla war yes.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

 

[tirwin1]

War doesn't benefit either China or Russia. Think future economic leadership.

China already has agreements with many countries like Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and African countries for access to mining materials for batteries to be used in the West's push for green new energy. Energy is a commodity. They will corner the electric battery energy market.

Putin already controls the natural gas the EU needs. Taking the Ukraine expands global deployment of it.

The U.S. is in a cultural civil war now of which neither party can get under control and won't IMHO.

Both the EU and the U.S. are not energy independent and are 10's of trillions in debt. The globe is in a financial melt down and a currency reset appears to be the only fix. Xi is partnering up with Ethereum to test it to see if China will be the first to roll out a digital currency. The EU central banks are in negative interest territory and the U.S. is now force to look at a digital dollar. Either that or go negative.

I serious mess for sure. Bullets flying mess? Not yet.

Actually the US is completely capable of being energy independent with fracking and maximizing oil drilling. Under trump we essentially were. But Biden and the democrats want to end that for political reasons. All the more reason to jettison them in November.

 

[ManualF150]

We need to be more energy independent as a nation along with staying out of other people's problems. Easier said than done.

From what I can see, the US is poking the bear. Hopefully it doesn't snatch it's head off.

 

[RedBreast21]

Actually the US is completely capable of being energy independent with fracking and maximizing oil drilling. Under trump we essentially were. But Biden and the democrats want to end that for political reasons. All the more reason to jettison them in November.

I agree and we were well on the way to til the 2020 election. We actually started exporting energy. We actually had to because we already had foreign contractual agreements for oil and gas so there was energy to export. It is very possible that we didn't need to renew those contracts in the future. But then Nov 2020 happened.

 

[Blimey]

Its gonna happen. Russia will take back Ukraine. NATO wont come to the rescue . Support for sure. prolonged guerilla war yes.

Looks pretty likely. NATO will supply weapons and intelligence, but not troops. Anybody in Ukraine right now, with the means to do so, should leave unless they want to be a Russian citizen. Russia's population will increase by 30% and they get a nice chunk of southern land. Ukraine won't fight for very long (probably), but put up a good show right off the bat, basically sacrificing the front line troops so they can claim they tried. I don't really blame them, as they cannot withstand a russian attack.

Europe is on its knees for Russian gas so won't make too big a thing of this.

 

[Mosinitis]

Militarily Russia can take back Ukraine in a matter of days, but Russia can't afford the expense of absorbing what is one of the poorest countries in Europe. Ukraine was once an industrial region of the Soviet Union, before all of it was looted and destroyed by oligarchy and Western parasites.

 

[holdover]

All's quiet on the Western front. but I can feel the tension coiling like a winch.