US and Iran conflict thread. ( merged threads)

Drinkthekoolaid

Drinkthekoolaid

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tirwin1 said:
Partly because their military is going to get smaller and smaller as the years go by because their population is declining. For a country that claims they think in terms of centuries that one child policy was a not well thought out. No one ever said commies were the brightest.
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They still have more military aged males than anyone else and that's not changing.

China would probably be more than happy to kill off some of them to avoid unrest as a matter of fact....

But yeah you're right. They usually "solve" one problem and create another worse one from the solution.
 
Steal2B

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Trump says US has paused Tuesday's planned Iran strike as ‘serious negotiations’ unfold​

Trump says US has paused planned Iran strike as ‘serious negotiations’ unfold

President Trump / AP Photo / Jose Luis Magana

President Donald Trump said Monday that the United States is holding off on a planned attack on Iran that had been scheduled for Tuesday, citing what he described as “serious negotiations” involving key Middle Eastern allies.
“I have been asked by the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, and the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to hold off on our planned Military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was scheduled for tomorrow, in that serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond,” Trump said in a post shared on Truth Social.
“This Deal will include, importantly, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN!” Trump said.
“Based on my respect for the above mentioned Leaders, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military, that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached,” he added.
 
Grimscale

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Bigfoot said:
I have "Let's Make a Deal" fatigue.

Iran wouldn't even abide by a deal that was very favorable to them.
Everybody already knows that by now. Duh.

WTF is President Trump doing? This is not the time for "Art of the Deal" stuff.
It's time for more bombs and missiles. IMHO
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Playing the market?
Every time he says he is going to bomb them the market drops. Then he says "we're pausing the bombs" and the market rises.
Maybe they are using this to make millions?
 
Steal2B

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Grimscale said:
Playing the market?
Every time he says he is going to bomb them the market drops. Then he says "we're pausing the bombs" and the market rises.
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Lol. Boy is that theory full of horseshit. A quick check of the stock market trends confirmed the markets are certainly not following your theory or reacting to his truth social posts as you suggest.

And although a check of oil futures sometimes shows a modest movement with the Truth Social rhetoric, the movement is just the opposite that you suggest (price goes up with a real threat of war)
 
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holdover

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Bigfoot said:
I have "Let's Make a Deal" fatigue.


WTF is President Trump doing? This is not the time for "Art of the Deal" stuff.
It's time for more bombs and missiles. IMHO
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He's buying time. and the midterms are comming up. He's pulling troops from from everywhere and marshaling an army worthy of Mordor.

Personally, Any strikes now are almost worthless , We destroyed a lot , but we cant finish the job. its going to require ground troops ,and ground troops are going to take some time . supplies have to be forward positioned first. and they have to be out of range of long range missile strikes , troop concentrations are Missile magnets , see Ukraine war.

So yeah we can send in some missiles and airstrikes but its not going to make them sign a deal . that strategy has already failed . We can do it again with the same result but its a waste of good missiles and bombs . Sure we can have some tactical success, knock out some new radar sites or hit suspected missile sites or supply depots , but that alone wont win the war


The plan was similar to what we did in Venezuela decapitation of government and military, and uprising by the people . they said it would take up to 6 weeks at the beginning . Looks to me, like that was the intent . SInce it didnt work out, they have to go to plan B . But they never had the resources ready to go . Now they are still applying pressure , but have to wait until plan B can go into effect. I think we wont see anything major until after the midterms
 
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Pentagon Urged No Resumption Of Strikes As Iran Grew More Effective Tracking US Air Ops: NYT<!-- --> | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com


Not sure I really buy this, but here it is


President Trump had on Monday announced he agreed to pause planned Iran strikes, which were supposedly going to resume Tuesday, because UAE & Saudi Arabia asked him to as they said the sides are getting close to a deal.

However, Pentagon officials have told The New York Times they urged halting of strikes because of intelligence shows Iran has grown more effective at tracking US air operations and strengthening its air defenses, making the potential for significant aerial losses by the US a greater likelihood in any new major campaign in Iran's skies.

"Based on my respect for the above mentioned Leaders, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military, that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Trump described that the Arab states requested the delay because "serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond."

But in a fresh report titled "Trump Threatens Iran and Then Pulls Back, All in the Same Day" - The NY Times pushed back with the following:

Iran has used the ceasefire to successfully dig out all bombed ballistic missile sites, making them fully operational again. Iran also moved a large number of new mobile launchers across the entire country and adjusted tactics for any resumption of strikes, per a US military official. Iranian commanders studied US fighter jet and bomber flight patterns with close Russian and Chinese help. The recent downing of an F-15E and groundfire striking an F-35 revealed American flight tactics had become "too predictable."
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While kinetic operations have been paused since Trump declared a ceasefire on April 8, Tehran was apparently treating the diplomatic timeout as a massive engineering and re-arming window. US officials have on several occasions hinted at this reality, as has Trump himself at times.

To complicate any future American target lists, the Iranian military has also reportedly dispersed a massive fleet of new mobile missile launchers across the entire country, completely overhauling their deployment tactics ahead of any potential resumption of US strikes.

In essence, despite the US touting total aerial superiority in the 38-days of initial bombing, Tehran has effectively neutralized the impact of the initial air campaign. If or when the ceasefire officially collapses, Washington could be looking at a heavily upgraded, highly adaptable adversary.

Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for Iran's Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, has this week declared that Iran was "prepared for all scenarios," as cited in state IRIB


I believe its far more likely a logistical matter. after assessing the recent engagements , the brass realized they would require far more weapon systems then previously thought and the cupboard isnt bare but theres not enough at the moment to conduct a 6 or ten month bombing campaign


The U.S. currently builds about 7 to 8 Tomahawk missiles per month. While manufacturer RTX signed contracts to scale up to 1,000 per year (about 83 per month), doing so will take several years. Each missile takes 18 to 24 months to complete due to complex components and propulsion system bottlenecks


The United States can currently produce about 50 to 200 cruise missiles per month across all platforms, though this output is rapidly expanding. The actual monthly yield depends heavily on the specific missile model and whether the defense industrial base is operating on peacetime acquisition limits or emergency wartime footing.
CBS News

The United States builds approximately 40 to 42 ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles per month. Lockheed Martin, the sole manufacturer, produces these missiles at a rate of roughly 500 units per year.


The United States currently builds about 50 to 60 Patriot missiles per month. However, under recent multi-billion dollar agreements with the Pentagon and contractors like Lockheed Martin and Boeing, the U.S. is actively ramping up manufacturing to triple this output to roughly 166 missiles per month over the coming years
 
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