Madmallard
.223 Rem
Andrew Cuomo is a virtual lock for re-election in 2018.
Yes, despite his failure to fix the MTA, the indictment of several of his aides for political corruption, the left’s disgust for his Clintonian triangulation, and his disdain for campaign finance and ethics reform, he, like his father before him, will win a third term in Albany.
Three words: Donald J. Trump.
Democrats outnumber Republicans in New York almost three to one. Naturally, any Republican running statewide has to persuade Democratic voters that the Democratic incumbent has failed on a massive scale.
But the Bronx isn’t burning, the SAFE Act still stands, "raise the age" became law and college tuition is now free to qualified students.
Add to that the Trump presidency and Democratic voters in New York are virtually unpersuadable, no matter how centrist or well qualified the Republican candidate may be.
Cuomo’s job approval rating was 46% in the latest Siena poll, but he’s got 16 months to rebound. Right now he seems content to let the MTA failures fester in order to embarrass fumbling Mayor Bill de Blasio.
Cuomo’s re-election war chest has since ballooned to a whopping $26 million. Show me a Republican candidate who can go dollar for dollar with him, and maybe that Republican could eke out a 42% vote share on election night. Maybe.
Could Cuomo still face a challenge from the left?
Anything’s possible. But who’s going to step up? Bill de Blasio? Preet Bharara? Granted, no one knew Zephyr Teachout when she announced her primary bid three years ago, but she ultimately never came close to unseating the governor.
Will the organized left—MoveOn.org, the Working Families Party, Sen. Bernie Sanders' Our Revolution—unite to wage intraparty warfare on behalf of an unknown, untested statewide candidate against a 12-year career incumbent who is more or less guaranteed to win re-election?
Doubtful. They’ll be too preoccupied with more competitive races in Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Maine, Wisconsin and Colorado.
Hillary Clinton cleaned Bernie’s clock on primary day here last year, winning 57% to 41%. It's unlikely that the leftist revolution will lay claim to a Cuomo scalp come spring.
Too many special interests have a vested interest in a third Cuomo term to see it not come to pass. From big banks to Big Insurance to REBNY to Albany lobbyists, they’ve all got too much at stake to see it all come tumbling down.
From $25,000 contributions by Michael Joseph and Ken Langone, to almost $36,000 in in-kind contributions by Michael J. Falcone, Cuomo has locked up the money race.
And instead of growing the party by nominating someone from the ideological center to take on Bill de Blasio this fall, my party has de facto nominated the New York equivalent of Sarah Palin.
We’re not broadening our horizons—we’re trimming the hedge around our white picket fence.
Numbers never lie. New York City constitutes nearly two-thirds of the state’s registered voters. A Republican who has no appeal to the five boroughs will not win statewide.
And as long as Trump is in the White House, no Republican ever will.
John William Schiffbauer was deputy communications director for the New York Republican State Committee from 2014 to 2016.
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20170728/OPINION/170729918
Yes, despite his failure to fix the MTA, the indictment of several of his aides for political corruption, the left’s disgust for his Clintonian triangulation, and his disdain for campaign finance and ethics reform, he, like his father before him, will win a third term in Albany.
Three words: Donald J. Trump.
Democrats outnumber Republicans in New York almost three to one. Naturally, any Republican running statewide has to persuade Democratic voters that the Democratic incumbent has failed on a massive scale.
But the Bronx isn’t burning, the SAFE Act still stands, "raise the age" became law and college tuition is now free to qualified students.
Add to that the Trump presidency and Democratic voters in New York are virtually unpersuadable, no matter how centrist or well qualified the Republican candidate may be.
Cuomo’s job approval rating was 46% in the latest Siena poll, but he’s got 16 months to rebound. Right now he seems content to let the MTA failures fester in order to embarrass fumbling Mayor Bill de Blasio.
Cuomo’s re-election war chest has since ballooned to a whopping $26 million. Show me a Republican candidate who can go dollar for dollar with him, and maybe that Republican could eke out a 42% vote share on election night. Maybe.
Could Cuomo still face a challenge from the left?
Anything’s possible. But who’s going to step up? Bill de Blasio? Preet Bharara? Granted, no one knew Zephyr Teachout when she announced her primary bid three years ago, but she ultimately never came close to unseating the governor.
Will the organized left—MoveOn.org, the Working Families Party, Sen. Bernie Sanders' Our Revolution—unite to wage intraparty warfare on behalf of an unknown, untested statewide candidate against a 12-year career incumbent who is more or less guaranteed to win re-election?
Doubtful. They’ll be too preoccupied with more competitive races in Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Maine, Wisconsin and Colorado.
Hillary Clinton cleaned Bernie’s clock on primary day here last year, winning 57% to 41%. It's unlikely that the leftist revolution will lay claim to a Cuomo scalp come spring.
Too many special interests have a vested interest in a third Cuomo term to see it not come to pass. From big banks to Big Insurance to REBNY to Albany lobbyists, they’ve all got too much at stake to see it all come tumbling down.
From $25,000 contributions by Michael Joseph and Ken Langone, to almost $36,000 in in-kind contributions by Michael J. Falcone, Cuomo has locked up the money race.
And instead of growing the party by nominating someone from the ideological center to take on Bill de Blasio this fall, my party has de facto nominated the New York equivalent of Sarah Palin.
We’re not broadening our horizons—we’re trimming the hedge around our white picket fence.
Numbers never lie. New York City constitutes nearly two-thirds of the state’s registered voters. A Republican who has no appeal to the five boroughs will not win statewide.
And as long as Trump is in the White House, no Republican ever will.
John William Schiffbauer was deputy communications director for the New York Republican State Committee from 2014 to 2016.
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20170728/OPINION/170729918
