Hillary's 85% Chance of Winning

[Blimey]

Stony Brook Prof. Says its gonna be Trump by a landslide %97. Article was written before Bernie tapped out....

Professor Claims His Statistical Model Shows Who Will Become President

Surely you don't believe a guy who back in February estimated with 97-99% confidence that trump would be president. On november 9 the guy will have to start modifying his model again.

538 has trump at 13.4% chance of winning currently: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo And honestly I think they are being quite optimistic with that. He is down badly in RCP aggregate: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

I just don't see him recovering his ground. He has only three weeks. His campaign invariably explodes every time he reaches parity with Clinton (look at the 538 link above and scroll down a bit you can see the blue and red lines intersect then self-destruct every time. Historically it has taken him well over a month to get the ground back and he doesn't have well over a month.

I have to assume even some of the "trump is going clean up" people are worried about this and there is a bit of a confidence game going on. I'm fairly sick at the idea that clinton news network will trumpet clinton for the next four years, but I've had a very, very long time to get used to the idea. The campaign is going precisely as I knew it would when I did not vote for trump in the primaries. I knew he would not be able to get the job done.

 

[Darth]

Don't call me Shirley.

Winning teams don't firebomb the losing teams.

 

[UpStateEd]

Surely you don't believe a guy who back in February estimated with 97-99% confidence that trump would be president. On november 9 the guy will have to start modifying his model again.

538 has trump at 13.4% chance of winning currently: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo And honestly I think they are being quite optimistic with that. He is down badly in RCP aggregate: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

I just don't see him recovering his ground. He has only three weeks. His campaign invariably explodes every time he reaches parity with Clinton (look at the 538 link above and scroll down a bit you can see the blue and red lines intersect then self-destruct every time. Historically it has taken him well over a month to get the ground back and he doesn't have well over a month.

I have to assume even some of the "trump is going clean up" people are worried about this and there is a bit of a confidence game going on. I'm fairly sick at the idea that clinton news network will trumpet clinton for the next four years, but I've had a very, very long time to get used to the idea. The campaign is going precisely as I knew it would when I did not vote for trump in the primaries. I knew he would not be able to get the job done.

Sounds like you work for the Hillary campaign...isn't it time for you to go outside and kick your dog? Come on stop the negativity Trump is within 4 points, YES time is running out for him..but it's not over and he isn't your normal candidate. Think positive a bit longer I don't want to see a 22LR ammo shortage again

 

[livingston]

 

[Kentuckyrifleman]

CNN journalists dont need a gun to the head to lie. They do it willingly and with abandon.

 

[Nevar]

Gonna be a LAND SLIDE for TRUMP. Or going to the courts like in the past.

 

[Blimey]

Sounds like you work for the Hillary campaign

I can't say this nicely so I won't bother. When you say things like this it makes you sound like a fool; like a person who shoots the messenger; like a person who when he jumps off a cliff and breaks his legs he blames not gravity but the guy who warned him that jumping off the cliff would hurt. Get a clue; I'm trying to educate you. Anti-intellectualism is part of the reason why trump was nominated to begin with. I hope you're proud of yourself. I blame the trump primary voters more than anybody else because the rest of us with half a damn brain saw this come from a very damn long distance. I just wish the likes of you could have as well. It's not like this is a surprise to the rest of us.

538 now has Trump at 11.3%.

 

[Blimey]

Gonna be a LAND SLIDE for TRUMP. Or going to the courts like in the past.

Ummm...I don't think so. Not unless something changes. And by change I mean toward Trump, not away. He's now down to 7 point deficit in RCP aggregate. I don't know how that's supposed to be a landslide for Trump.

I will probably vote for him anyway (never hillary) just as a screw you, knowing my vote is worthless, but it doesn't change the fact he'll lose. I hope all the pundits are wrong but I doubt it.

 

[Mosinitis]

There is such thing as the power of positive reinforcement. Every good athlete knows about it, ESPECIALLY COMPETITIVE SHOOTERS, so do business people. I am sure Trump was taught that as well. Please read "With Winning In Mind" by Lanny Bassham.

TRUMP WILL WIN THIS ELECTION WITH A HEALTHY MARGIN. Case closed.

 

[UpStateEd]

I can't say this nicely so I won't bother. When you say things like this it makes you sound like a fool; like a person who shoots the messenger; like a person who when he jumps off a cliff and breaks his legs he blames not gravity but the guy who warned him that jumping off the cliff would hurt. Get a clue; I'm trying to educate you. Anti-intellectualism is part of the reason why trump was nominated to begin with. I hope you're proud of yourself. I blame the trump primary voters more than anybody else because the rest of us with half a damn brain saw this come from a very damn long distance. I just wish the likes of you could have as well. It's not like this is a surprise to the rest of us.

538 now has Trump at 11.3%.

Sounds like somebody that can dish it out but can't take it...Please don't try to educate me...I'm Deplorable you aren't!

 

[4excal]

Sounds like somebody that can dish it out but can't take it...Please don't try to educate me...I'm Deplorable you aren't!

Yeaaa well I wouldn't say that..there still is different forms of deplorable

 

[UpStateEd]

There is such thing as the power of positive reinforcement. Every good athlete knows about it, ESPECIALLY COMPETITIVE SHOOTERS, so do business people. I am sure Trump was taught that as well. Please read "With Winning In Mind" by Lanny Bassham.

TRUMP WILL WIN THIS ELECTION WITH A HEALTHY MARGIN. Case closed.

Exactly...the media is jamming the negative polls down our throats - one polls show trump down 3 another 11...you negative folks can sing all you want November 9th but until then please shut up. The media wants us to thinks it's over and wants us to throw in the towel and not vote. Let the high numbers be for HildaBeast then maybe her voters won't show up. This race has been up and down and the stupid voters have very short memories...things can change very quickly.

P.S. I thought the NYFIREARMS forum was for the negative folks

 

[UpStateEd]

Yeaaa well I wouldn't say that..there still is different forms of deplorable

Then don't say it

 

[Blimey]

Doesn't seem like a bad time to bump this thread. When it was last posted Trump was scraping the bottom of the barrel and things looked dire at 538. He was at 11.9% that day. He's now at 29% chance to win (but it's still going up as more recent polls come in), having gained a great deal in the past week.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

And yes, some of this is because polls like the ABC news poll were rank bullshit and run by idiots and/or shills. So, that poll has trimmed 11% off hillary's lead since, bringing back to the margin of error.

RCP has him behind 2.2 or 2.4% now.

What we need now is another bomb drop from either wikileaks or from comey.

 

[Phazer]

I'm sorry, but I still don't see Trump's path through the electoral college ending in victory.

The general population has no idea what is really going on. Changes in demographics have put all major metropolitan areas in the Democrats' column forever. Just as NYC carries NY, so will be the case in other states (ex/ Philadelphia carrying PA).

Things are going to get really bad over the next few years.

Enjoy the show while you can.

 

[Mosinitis]

Like talking to the wall.

 

[UpStateEd]

If you negative guys decide to go bye-bye- please don't use a firearm.

GO TRUMP!

 

[4excal]

If you negative guys decide to go bye-bye- please don't use a firearm.

GO TRUMP!

Lol

 

[Darth]

Doesn't seem like a bad time to bump this thread. When it was last posted Trump was scraping the bottom of the barrel and things looked dire at 538. He was at 11.9% that day. He's now at 29% chance to win (but it's still going up as more recent polls come in), having gained a great deal in the past week.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

And yes, some of this is because polls like the ABC news poll were rank bullshit and run by idiots and/or shills. So, that poll has trimmed 11% off hillary's lead since, bringing back to the margin of error.

RCP has him behind 2.2 or 2.4% now.

What we need now is another bomb drop from either wikileaks or from comey.

I still don't believe the polls.

But what is more comforting is that if the unthinkable DOES happen, at least half this country will have so little faith in the government that, why bother following laws?

"No more ARs for you! Law says so!"

"Yeah, not really feeling that one, I'll pass."

"Oh yeah, well then my minions will arrest you!"

"Then I'll make them commit suicide with 2 gunshots from 6ft behind their head.

Tit for tat and all."

 

[Blimey]

I'm sorry, but I still don't see Trump's path through the electoral college ending in victory.

The general population has no idea what is really going on. Changes in demographics have put all major metropolitan areas in the Democrats' column forever. Just as NYC carries NY, so will be the case in other states (ex/ Philadelphia carrying PA).

Things are going to get really bad over the next few years.

Enjoy the show while you can.

If I had to bet my life on it one way or another I would say he loses in six days. But there is still a chance. More than it looked like a couple of weeks ago. And yes the demographics are a huge problem. And just getting worse for republican wins in the future. It's looking more each day that he loses, but by a small amount, and that's pretty sad.

LA times today has him up 6 points, which is the first time in six weeks and the second time only ever that he has finally broken out of the margin of error lead over her.

 

[Phazer]

I'm sorry, but I still don't see Trump's path through the electoral college ending in victory.

The general population has no idea what is really going on. Changes in demographics have put all major metropolitan areas in the Democrats' column forever. Just as NYC carries NY, so will be the case in other states (ex/ Philadelphia carrying PA).

Like talking to the wall.

Really? Like talking to a wall?

I'm sorry, but I'm done wishing on rainbows and begging for pet unicorns.

National polls don't mean squat.

According to a recent electoral map, Clinton has 246 electoral votes. She only needs 24 more. A simple combination of CO, NH, and VA gives her 26. Unless we're going to see PA or MN or WI or MI magically jump on the "Trump Train," HRC is going to be our next president. Don't blame me. I'm just pointing out a pragmatic analysis. If I'm wrong, great! I'd happily accept being called a "Loser" after this prediction is proven wrong. That said, the best we can hope for is poor Democrat turnout in some areas to turn the proverbial tide. The greater American electorate, currently more fractured, illiterate, misinformed, and oblivious than ever before will, I fear, get exactly the government it deserves.

 

[Mosinitis]

Still like talking to the wall. Your whole world is a few assholes talking politics on television and in printed media. The world is more complicated than that. Negativity can hurt and there is no downside to staying positive. You didn't even bother to look into power of positive reinforcement. This doesn't come from me. It's a well known concept used by successful people in different fields like sports, business, politics. Positive reinforcement alone doesn't make things happen, but it's a necessary component on a path to victory. It doesn't cost anything and there is nothing to lose. Again for the hundredth time. TRUMP WILL WIN THIS ELECTION WITH A HEALTHY MARGIN.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Who trusts what the media says any more?

 

[Phazer]

Still like talking to the wall. Your whole world is a few assholes talking politics on television and in printed media. The world is more complicated than that. Negativity can hurt and there is no downside to staying positive. You didn't even bother to look into power of positive reinforcement. This doesn't come from me. It's a well known concept used by successful people in different fields like sports, business, politics. Positive reinforcement alone doesn't make things happen, but it's a necessary component on a path to victory. It doesn't cost anything and there is nothing to lose. Again for the hundredth time. TRUMP WILL WIN THIS ELECTION WITH A HEALTHY MARGIN.

There is nothing "positive" in this entire election cycle. Everything is a race to the bottom. That is why I believe that the only way for our side to prevail is if the other side is just more demoralized than we are.

i lost faith in our electorate years ago.

 

[Celt]

I think Trump is going to pull it off. And if he doesn't it's only through corruption ,lying ,cheating, stealing and Clinton would be an illegitimate president under criminal investigation. There will be a Countrywide mutiny if she becomes president.

 

[dubleuhb]

I'm staying positive...... because if the filthy lying drunken criminal is elected I'll have plenty of time to be negative.

 

[Blimey]

Still like talking to the wall. Your whole world is a few assholes talking politics on television and in printed media. The world is more complicated than that. Negativity can hurt and there is no downside to staying positive. You didn't even bother to look into power of positive reinforcement. This doesn't come from me. It's a well known concept used by successful people in different fields like sports, business, politics. Positive reinforcement alone doesn't make things happen, but it's a necessary component on a path to victory. It doesn't cost anything and there is nothing to lose. Again for the hundredth time. TRUMP WILL WIN THIS ELECTION WITH A HEALTHY MARGIN.

Whether phazer thinks positively or not will not sway the election. If you want an example of positive thinking, go to huffingtonpost, click on their politics, then the pollster. This afternoon they had hillary at 98.4% and trump at 1.5% chance of winning. Now that is some positive thinking, because it is completely belied by the numbers, which in truth don't show her odds nearly so strong. But their dream world also won't decide the election.

I hope I'm wrong and the polls are all wrong, but I've no real reason to think they are wildly wrong. That's why two weeks ago it was a lost cause, if you looked at them. Now it's not. 538 is still the best estimator, I think, and it has trump today at 30%. Those are not terrible odds. If things keep going his way he may get that closer to 40% come election night, and now we're really talking.

I really want hillary to lose, but like phazer I gave up on the electorate years ago as well. I will march there and fruitlessly put my vote against clinton. I just hope enough people in swing states do the same. And if the polls are off by a large margin and trump smashes it, I will happily admit I was led astray by "so called experts".

 

[Mosinitis]

Whether phazer thinks positively or not will not sway the election. If you want an example of positive thinking, go to huffingtonpost, click on their politics, then the pollster. This afternoon they had hillary at 98.4% and trump at 1.5% chance of winning. Now that is some positive thinking, because it is completely belied by the numbers, which in truth don't show her odds nearly so strong. But their dream world also won't decide the election.

I hope I'm wrong and the polls are all wrong, but I've no real reason to think they are wildly wrong. That's why two weeks ago it was a lost cause, if you looked at them. Now it's not. 538 is still the best estimator, I think, and it has trump today at 30%. Those are not terrible odds. If things keep going his way he may get that closer to 40% come election night, and now we're really talking.

I really want hillary to lose, but like phazer I gave up on the electorate years ago as well. I will march there and fruitlessly put my vote against clinton. I just hope enough people in swing states do the same. And if the polls are off by a large margin and trump smashes it, I will happily admit I was led astray by "so called experts".

Using your logic Phazer's vote, my vote or your vote will not sway the election, so why bother. I don't see the need to help democrats spread negativity. Trump outperformed the polls and predictions. Where were you during the primaries? Trump is already ahead in popularity and he is on his way to winning.

 

[Blimey]

Using your logic Phazer's vote, my vote or your vote will not sway the election, so why bother. I don't see the need to help democrats spread negativity. Trump outperformed the polls and predictions. Where were you during the primaries? Trump is already ahead in popularity and he is on his way to winning.

I voted for Cruz in the primaries. He'd already been vetted, having fought races before, and he was a calculating guy who would avoid all of the crazy stuff trump has said.

I've always been bearish on trump. I won't pretend otherwise. I thought he'd get crushed in the primaries. I thought he'd be crushed in the general. That last bit is still pending the jury finding. I guess we'll find out in six days if I was right or not. I really hope I am wrong yet again with trump. It's possible to want somebody to lose (hillary) yet believe they won't. I never play the lottery, but if I did I would buy a ticket hoping to win but expecting not to.

 

[Mosinitis]

I voted for Cruz in the primaries. He'd already been vetted, having fought races before, and he was a calculating guy who would avoid all of the crazy stuff trump has said.

I've always been bearish on trump. I won't pretend otherwise. I thought he'd get crushed in the primaries. I thought he'd be crushed in the general. That last bit is still pending the jury finding. I guess we'll find out in six days if I was right or not. I really hope I am wrong yet again with trump. It's possible to want somebody to lose (hillary) yet believe they won't. I never play the lottery, but if I did I would buy a ticket hoping to win but expecting not to.

This is not about you or me being right. Nobody cares about our predictions. Trump is surging daily, even in the polls he is expected to outperform. He is clearly winning. Lets reinforce the positive momentum. No need to talk it down, it only helps Hillary.