m1_ping
9mm
I take a more optimistic view. I give the TRO a 25% chance of happening. When a court considers a TRO they take into consideration more than just the merits of the case. This works against us, but when we eventually get to a final decision the merits are all the court takes into consideration. I give the preliminary injunction a 75% chance of happening in some form. When a court considers a preliminary injunction they again take into consideration more than just the merits of the cases, but the standard is not as high as it is for a TRO. I give the permanent injunction a 80% chance of happening. The controlling case law (Heller, McDonald, Bruen) is clearly on our side and despite district court judges not liking it I believe most will go along with it with the exception of a few activist judges. I believe some but not all or even most Democrat nominated judges are activist judges. For these same reasons I think we have similar odds of a permanent injunction surviving appeal to the second circuit. It will come down to which judges are assigned the case and if we get unlucky enough to get two or more activist judges. Trump had 5 appointees join the second circuit, but unfortunately Biden has already gotten 5 as well.I just read the Motion for the TRO, and if this is not granted this time, then I truly fear we are lost as a nation. It is so damn clear cut that one should be granted against NY and the bullshit CCIA.