Here's how it's going to happen...

[Curmudgeon]

I'm calling it...

- USD loses status as world reserve currency
- US markets shut down after a week straight of losses and circuit breakers halting trading
- US economy tanks. Inflation skyrockets. Depression begins.
- US cedes financial control to oversight by IMF, World Bank, etc.
- People stop getting paid, violence erupts, UN steps in in support of 'financial stability' with peacekeeping forces to manage urban areas and control food production and distribution.
-US government forced to accept radical policies under threat of withdrawal of financial support. Among these are laws banning firearms ownership, restrictions on freedom of speech and assembly.
- Chaos ensues.

 

[tirwin1]

Your forum name is well chosen. Do you have a time frame for this forecast?

 

[Curmudgeon]

Your forum name is well chosen. Do you have a time frame for this forecast?

2024 ish. Either right before, or right after that election.

 

[Chicken Shoot]

Move your timing for this to March 2019 and I think you'll be spot on!!

 

[Curmudgeon]

Move your timing for this to March 2019 and I think you'll be spot on!!

What makes you say that?

 

[Chicken Shoot]

What makes you say that?

Just a hunch. Everything you listed is highly plausible and some are a guarantee.

 

[Jmac00]

all of this will happen across the globe, all at the same time within a 24-hour time frame
The first thing that is going to go down is communication. ALL OF IT, no cell phones, no internet, no TV. Young people will immediately panic.
Next, the banks will either not open or will close and lock the doors and wall street will short circuit and stop trading

NOW will have your economic collapse.

within 24 hours people will be panicking and making runs on the grocery stores and gas stations. Most food items will be sold out within hours. gas stations will have very long lines but will be out of gas.
within a week, water and natural gas and electricity will be shut off.

I hope Im already at my cabin when all this hits the fan. I can survive there for an entire year before I have to go back to society

 

[Blimey]

This could happen. But, I've been hearing about this for about a decade ever since I started really paying attention and we had the big crash a decade ago.

Although it could happen, I don't believe it will. I continue to plow money into stocks and I trust the future of the US economy. We still have the best infrastructure, the best resources (no other country can compete with US resources overall, IMO, and the only way those changes is if our borders shift). We have a capable population (globally speaking, and despite millions of idiots abounding).

 

[Robin]

I agree Blimey, but something has got to bust, this false economy is just that and unsustainable.
Robin

 

[Curmudgeon]

I agree Blimey, but something has got to bust, this false economy is just that and unsustainable.
Robin

Agree 100%. I think we're now past the point of fixing any of it. Best anyone can do is delay the inevitable.

 

[BDinPutnam]

A decade, @Blimey?

30+ years in my case.

 

[Jmac00]

This could happen. But, I've been hearing about this for about a decade ever since I started really paying attention and we had the big crash a decade ago.

Although it could happen, I don't believe it will. I continue to plow money into stocks and I trust the future of the US economy. We still have the best infrastructure, the best resources (no other country can compete with US resources overall, IMO, and the only way those changes is if our borders shift). We have a capable population (globally speaking, and despite millions of idiots abounding).

I agree to a point. The economy is doing fairly well, overall. But, there is an underlying worry that the Fed will increase interest rates. That worry and the worsening earnings reports from big retailers (Lowes, Target, and Koles) have investors concerned going into the holiday buying season.

I feel that the FED is purposely trying to fuck things up. There really is no reason to continue increasing the prime rate. Which I believe they said they would do at least three more times in 2019.

 

[Bananabandit]

Im just gonna go to the Winchester, have a cold pint and wait for it to blow over.

 

[Curmudgeon]

I agree to a point. The economy is doing fairly well, overall. But, there is an underlying worry that the Fed will increase interest rates. That worry and the worsening earnings reports from big retailers (Lowes, Target, and Koles) have investors concerned going into the holiday buying season.

I feel that the FED is purposely trying to fuck things up. There really is no reason to continue increasing the prime rate. Which I believe they said they would do at least three more times in 2019.

Almost like they're slaves to a larger master.

 

[Curmudgeon]

Im just gonna go to the Winchester, have a cold pint and wait for it to blow over.

Shawn of the Dead. Nice reference.

 

[GOPerfect]

We are living in a serious false economy. We are indeed on the brink of a financial disaster.

Bring it on, we are in serious need of a reset and an enema!

 

[eochief66]

When a ‘forest fire’ is lit, there is no telling which way it will go. It depends on the ‘wind’, the ‘fuel load’ and the ‘humidity’. The ‘wind’ is about to blow real hard, the “fuel load” is huge and the humidity is dropping rapidly. It just takes the right ‘match’, a lightning strike, or spontaneous combustion to set the ‘fire’ in motion. The question is, what (or who) will set it off? Could it be health care, an illegal alien invasion, the one-world-order, radical environmentalism, man-caused global warming, the brainwashing of our kids, or trashing the Constitution by politicians and special interest groups? Was Jefferson right? Does a society need a revolution every hundred years? Messy, but could it be necessary if freedom is to be defended and preserved? If he’s right, we’re long overdue.” ~ Ron Ewart

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

My .02 cents.. Is I'm not sure what is more likely

I whole heartedly agree our economy is artificially propped up and inflated at unsustainable levels.

I think other adversarial countries want the USD to be replaced as the world currency and they are actively strategizing and working to accomplish this now.

I think it's more likely that we get into a war wit China first to stop our currency from,being replaced than it is just a solely independent economic collapse.

I think it's going to be 2 parts. I think us and China will square off in the next 6 years. Winner is world's only super power, loser is in economic and civil ruin.

But like @Blimey I continue to pump money into 401k and stocks hoping that I'm wrong and my investment pays off.

 

[Jmac00]

I wonder if NObama will take3 credit for a collapse, after all, he said this economy was his doing

 

[Darth]

If people are smart, they'd invest in tin foil right about now.

 

[masterswimmer]

Sounds like a lot of economic doom and gloom prognosticators here. Let me guess, all you end of day sayers have no skin in the investment game?

Virtually all, not every one, but almost every single president since the industrial revolution began has had an increase in the federal deficit. This is nothing new.

The prime rate at current levels is still well below the average PR in the last 30 years. Corporate expansion in the last 10 years has been huge. Raising rates will slow expansion a bit. It won't stop it. What rising rates will do is put more disposable cash into the hands of retirees. These ridiculously low rates have handcuffed fixed income retirees for over 10 years now.

With trillions of dollars invested in retirement funds and automatic contributions continuing to flow into the market, corrections will happen. However, these dips, regardless of how big a dip, should be viewed as buying opportunities as opposed to cash out fears. The only ones who get hurt in these market drops are those who withdraw funds and actually realize the losses. Leaving your funds in place during dips is only a paper loss.

Diversify your investments in stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, mutual funds, ETF's, REIT's, and cash and don't withdraw during corrections and you'll come out in a good position.

The US is not going to collapse financially. Tinfoil hat wearers who sell during corrections just create buying opportunities for the rest of us.

 

[Jmac00]

Sounds like a lot of economic doom and gloom prognosticators here. Let me guess, all you end of day sayers have no skin in the investment game?

Virtually all, not every one, but almost every single president since the industrial revolution began has had an increase in the federal deficit. This is nothing new.

The prime rate at current levels is still well below the average PR in the last 30 years. Corporate expansion in the last 10 years has been huge. Raising rates will slow expansion a bit. It won't stop it. What rising rates will do is put more disposable cash into the hands of retirees. These ridiculously low rates have handcuffed fixed income retirees for over 10 years now.

With trillions of dollars invested in retirement funds and automatic contributions continuing to flow into the market, corrections will happen. However, these dips, regardless of how big a dip, should be viewed as buying opportunities as opposed to cash out fears. The only ones who get hurt in these market drops are those who withdraw funds and actually realize the losses. Leaving your funds in place during dips is only a paper loss.

Diversify your investments in stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, mutual funds, ETF's, REIT's, and cash and don't withdraw during corrections and you'll come out in a good position.

The US is not going to collapse financially. Tinfoil hat wearers who sell during corrections just create buying opportunities for the rest of us.

the biggest question then becomes, TIME? IF there is a correction/collapse, how long will it last and can you sustain yourself and family for its entirety

 

[tirwin1]

I think a rapid decline in the stock market, worse than 2008 is inevitable. This country is due for a reckoning based on our ridiculous levels of debt. There will be a massive correction in the markets and entitlement spending. Technically I have about 10 years before I can get full social security benefits. I don't plan on seeing any of that money. When inflation returns and the interest expense for the debt becomes one of the largest annual expenditures (if not THE largest line item) then something will have to be done - default is possible but carries all kinds of other risks. Spending will have to be cut.

There is a lot of talk about the dollar losing its status as the global reserve currency. China and Russia are actively working on this by buying every last ounce of gold on the market. However they have problems of their own. Russia's economy is a fraction the size of ours. China has grown very rapidly in the past 30 years but they have plenty of problems of their own. Essentially the chinese govt bribes its citizens with full employment. Businesses don't have to actually make a profit. If they can employ workers they will get loans from govt controlled banks. That's why they literally have cities with no one living in them. As long as construction crews employ young males they won't be in the streets protesting against the govt. If the US economy tanks, the impact will be felt all over the world, particularly in the nations that are dependent upon exports to the US for their well being (China). I could be wrong but I find it difficult to believe they will be successful in displacing the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

 

[livingston]

the biggest question then becomes, TIME? IF there is a correction/collapse, how long will it last and can you sustain yourself and family for its entirety

If you have a sustainable job and continue working you can. During the depression IF one had a government job they were vastly better off than the average stiff.... Even then they took a haircut but most were able to survive even make money.

 

[1911guy]

1. This is from an economist friend of mine:

--now with the official Opposition now in control of half of government, I think the markets are slowly anticipating creeping policy paralysis. the markets are still wary of democratic party promises of rolling back tax reform and reregulating the economy and ramping up environmental controls. I do not think that companies will increase capital expenditures beyond about 3%, whereas they had anticipated 6%. 3% is probably just replacement of worn machinery. the companies do not want to increase breakeven if the economy reverses.

so industrial companies will see no way forward to expand. but they will slowly wait to see what happens. the market will surge to 2600 and back to 2400, with lots of volatility. but the trend line will be downward, where surges to 2500 and then down to 2300, etc.

if the markets see a full political war developing between the WH and the House of Representatives, the markets will retract, and the recession will begin. the public will stop buying durables.

we will look for the first announcement from some company like general motors of a large layoff -- and that will be the end of this cycle.

we will be watching the FED now. I actually do not think they will move interest rates up for a while to see how the economy reacts to this election. this is proof positive that the FED does not like this election result, and are frightened about the economy now. had the GOP have won, they would continue the monetary contraction bc they were anticipating a growing economy.

the actions of the FED, therefore, are the real measure as to where the economy is heading. if the FED does increase interest rates again, this indicates that the FED thinks that the democrats will be embarking on a moderate policy agenda with a view of looking forward toward the 2020 election.

the best thing we could see is that the FED actually announces an increase in interest rates, which would mean that the economy will be all right.

 

[GOPerfect]

Btw, I do not think this is just an issue for the US. I see this as a global issue

 

[Robin]

If people are smart, they'd invest in tin foil right about now.

When I got the paper daily I checked metals, lead specifically, every day, now the newspaper is a poor shadow of what it once was and I occasionally buy one on Sunday for the NYT crossword puzzle, and didn't even look for it last week. Lead was my barometer, now I don't care.
Robin
Only advise I have, and I know this would be near impossible for some, get out of debt.
Robin

 

[Twogunwilly]

Not even close thanks to Shiliary losing the election.

 

[tapper3]

CNN Money's Fear & Greed gizmo is reading at 7 today.

 

[GOYABEAN]