Things are heating up in the Donbass

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is letting his frustration and impatience over the question of entering the NATO military alliance be known. "Our future is in the European Union. Ukraine is also ready to be part of NATO. We are waiting for NATO to be ready to accept Ukraine," he said Thursday to journalists just ahead of a summit of the European Political Community in Chisinau, Moldova.

At the summit, he demanded that Ukraine receive security guarantees "now" and emphasized the best way to ensure this is acceptance into NATO. But the idea of 'security guarantees' has also long been under discussion, with French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday having explained that the country could be given "something between the security provided to Israel and full-fledged membership."

Zelensky Miffed Over NATO Inaction, Demands Membership & Security Guarantees 'Now' | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
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Zelensky demanded that Ukraine receive security guarantees "now"


He's in trouble, and he see's it. If NATO doesn't intervene on his behalf soon, Ukraine is lost.

He has no airforce, no navy, air defense has been degraded badly, Has a few dozen western tanks and whatever they have left over from the fighting, His artillery has been degraded , his ammo stocks have been degraded , They have no effective defense against enemy drones
and he's nearly 100% dependent on foreign aid .


 
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tirwin1

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Why the White House Wants War

With Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, subject to increasing Russian bombardment, and Moscow subject to new drone attacks, the hostility now reflects direct provocation of central government and leadership. Whether you rightly find Russia’s ...
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Mosinitis

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Interesting discussion on possible outcome of the conflict. I don't know if I agree or disagree, but a lot of what they say makes sense.

 
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Mosinitis said:
Interesting discussion on possible outcome of the conflict. I don't know if I agree or disagree, but a lot of what they say makes sense.

Click to expand...

I dont see Russia negotiating at all. So they can fight them later? After they rearmed? No freaking way. Want to or not, they are forced to go to the Polish border. If or when the Russians get to the Dipro river. the Ukrainians will most likely be forced to surrender anyway.

Personally speaking, I think the Ukrainians were hurt a lot more than what were being told. I believe a lot of weapons and ammo have been destroyed , A lot of the leadership killed. I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainian army started falling apart this summer or fall. Once they blow thier load this summer , there isnt going to be much left to resist.
 
Robin

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The largest country on the planet earth, with untold resources yet to be discovered, and they need Donbass?!? Like the kid that lost all his marbles while searching for just one more.
Robin
 
Drinkthekoolaid

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tirwin1 said:
On paper I agree. So why are they struggling?
Click to expand...


To be honest I have no idea there is so much propaganda out there. Ukraine could be killing 10 Russians for every troop they lose or it could be the exact opposite. Both side of the story are thick with propaganda. The truth is somewhere in the middle. It seems Russia is content to patiently grind along.


Plot twist.... What if Russia is using this situation as an opportunity to bleed NATO dry of their weapon reserves (on mostly a bunch of Wagner convicts and poorly trained conscripts) that Russia is starting to see a strategy of depleting NATOs weapons, causing internal conflict among the alliance.

And then perhaps they just keep slowly and methodically rolling to the Baltics after done with Ukraine. NATO might be so depleted and fractured in a year from now it's feasible.
 
spat

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Drinkthekoolaid said:
To be honest I have no idea there is so much propaganda out there. Ukraine could be killing 10 Russians for every troop they lose or it could be the exact opposite. Both side of the story are thick with propaganda. The truth is somewhere in the middle. It seems Russia is content to patiently grind along.


Plot twist.... What if Russia is using this situation as an opportunity to bleed NATO dry of their weapon reserves (on mostly a bunch of Wagner convicts and poorly trained conscripts) that Russia is starting to see a strategy of depleting NATOs weapons, causing internal conflict among the alliance.

And then perhaps they just keep slowly and methodically rolling to the Baltics after done with Ukraine. NATO might be so depleted and fractured in a year from now it's feasible.
Click to expand...
About the only thing we can really be sure of is that the Russians were supposed to be holding a victory parade over a year ago in Kiev, and they still aren't able to.

So, on that metric, the Ukranians are winning.
 
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spat said:
About the only thing we can really be sure of is that the Russians were supposed to be holding a victory parade over a year ago in Kiev, and they still aren't able to.

So, on that metric, the Ukranians are winning.
Click to expand...

Thats a pretty naive metric.
 
tirwin1

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Drinkthekoolaid said:
To be honest I have no idea there is so much propaganda out there. Ukraine could be killing 10 Russians for every troop they lose or it could be the exact opposite. Both side of the story are thick with propaganda. The truth is somewhere in the middle. It seems Russia is content to patiently grind along.


Plot twist.... What if Russia is using this situation as an opportunity to bleed NATO dry of their weapon reserves (on mostly a bunch of Wagner convicts and poorly trained conscripts) that Russia is starting to see a strategy of depleting NATOs weapons, causing internal conflict among the alliance.

And then perhaps they just keep slowly and methodically rolling to the Baltics after done with Ukraine. NATO might be so depleted and fractured in a year from now it's feasible.
Click to expand...
I think that has as much credence as all the "trump is playing 4D chess" talk. Their game plan was a quick successful invasion. They have been forced into a war of attrition by the US. Russia is patiently grinding along because that's about all they can do.

I agree that we have little real reporting on this war since both sides are full of propaganda. I remain skeptical of any successful large scale counterattack by the Ukrainians. I think perpetual conflict is a likely outcome which is what the cynical bastards in this administration want.
 
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How big was the Ukraine army before the war?
Upon their establishment in 1991, the Armed Forces of Ukraine included approximately 780,000 personnel, 7,000 armored vehicles, 6,500 tanks, .


SATURDAY, 21 MAY 2022, 11:12 AM

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that today Ukraine is being defended in the war by 700,000 military personnel.

Source: Zelenskyy in an interview for Ukrainian journalists

Quote from the president: "As of today it is 700,000 – here you can see the result of the work of 700,000 people who are fighting. 700,000. This is at a time of war."



Estimates of Russian troop numbers in Ukraine have ranged from anywhere between 100,000 and 200,000 in recent weeks.

Ukraine's defence minister, Oleksiy Reznikov has put Russian forces surrounding the country at 149,000, while President Volodymyr Zelenskiy estimated the figure at around 200,000, in addition to thousands of combat vehicles, which include an estimated 2,840 battle tanks, outnumbering Ukraine’s armoured capability by three to one.

Reznikov’s estimate is in line with US calculations of around 150,000 Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s borders before the invasion began on Thursday. Russia keeps a static border presence of around 35,000 military personnel on the Ukraine frontier, from a total standing army – the Russian Ground Forces - of 280,000 active duty personnel. Overall, Russia maintains the fifth-largest armed forces in the world, with over one million active personnel and two million reservists split between the various branches, which includes air force, navy, space forces, strategic missile forces, airborne and special operations forces.

However, US intelligence believes that the bulk of the Russian forces around Ukraine – which depending on the accuracy of estimates represent some 50-60% of the total strength of the Russian Ground Forces – will not be involved in the initial phases of the attack. The US stated that Russia's invasion is designed to decapitate Ukraine's government: one of the three main axes of assault is directed at the capital Kyiv, a senior US defense official said.

"It is our assessment that they have every intention of basically decapitating the government and installing their own method of governance, which would explain these early moves.”

en.as.com

How many troops has Russia sent into invasion of Ukraine?

Estimates of the total number of Russian forces involved in the invasion of Ukraine vary but around 150,000 troops are thought to be deployed in total.
en.as.com en.as.com



By Angela Dewan, CNN
Updated 3:11 PM EST, Fri February 25, 2022

Where Russia has 900,000 active personnel in its armed forces, and 2 million in reserve, Ukraine has 196,000 and 900,000 reservists. Ukraine on Wednesday began conscripting reservists aged 18-60, according to IISS.

In land forces alone, Russia has a twofold advantage, with 280,000 troops to Ukraine’s 125,600. And its air force is nearly five times as strong, with 165,00 to Ukraine’s 35,000.

But in terms of how many troops are in this particular operation, Yohann Michel, a research analyst who worked on the IISS report, said Russia had an estimated 200,000 personnel in and around Ukraine.

“That’s including around 60 battle groups. The situation is evolving rapidly and that number could change, but it’s very large, and that’s important. It’s one of the largest in eastern Europe that we’ve seen in years – in my lifetime,” Michel told CNN.

 
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tirwin1 said:
I think that has as much credence as all the "trump is playing 4D chess" talk. Their game plan was a quick successful invasion. They have been forced into a war of attrition by the US. Russia is patiently grinding along because that's about all they can do.

I agree that we have little real reporting on this war since both sides are full of propaganda. I remain skeptical of any successful large scale counterattack by the Ukrainians. I think perpetual conflict is a likely outcome which is what the cynical bastards in this administration want.
Click to expand...

I agree, the Russian game plan was a quick decapitation of the leadership in kiev. They expected at least half or more of the Ukrainian army to drop their arms and join them . the Russians sent between 150, to 200,000 troops into Ukraine against a far larger opponent. The only way this makes any sense is that they expected a short fight and Ukraine military to join them,
 
Mosinitis

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Russia should have done this in 2014, before the West took over Ukrainian military. Before CIA made Ukraine a totalitarian state, killing all intellectual opposition. Ukraine is a country created on lies, hate and fear. It's a country created to serve the interests of outsiders.
 
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They are waiting for the U.S. under bidong to just get tired and leave, of course leaving billions of dollars behind.
You know the thing
 
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