TEOTWAWKI inc.
.338 Win Mag
Things are heating up in the Donbass
- Thread starter holdover
- Start date
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
My theroy is that a Russia must build an army that can fight NATO if they are attacked. They fully expect NATO to jump in and save the day at some point . They need to have an army trained and ready in the event that happens what they dont want to do is provoke NATO into an attack by being weak . they have to hold back , buy time and prepare , whether it happens or not. They want to deter NATO from entering the conflict at all costs, that means not loseing all your men in a victory . Russia must have over 1 million , probably 2 million men under arms for a deterrent . They are working on achieving that now . 350,000 Russians in Ukraine fighting now. they have 350,000 in reserve and conscripting more ,
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
What does a Ukrainian victory look like? and how will it be achieved?
JaguarJaguarGolf
6.5 Creedmoor
Ukrainian Leadership in million dollar mansions in Switzerland
spat
.700 Nitro Express
You seem to think Russia can keep this up forever.
They can't.
NATO could keep this up forever, but they won't.
You say that Russia will fight this forever because they have to. Just because you need something doesn't mean you get it LOL.
A Russian victory would require Putin holding a victory parade in downtown Kiev.
A Ukranian victory would be Putin unable to enter Kiev without getting killed.
It's very simple, there are a lot of powerful people making a lot of money off this in the west. They have no intention or letting this end any time soon.
There are a lot of powerful people *losing* a lot of money over this in Russia, and they are not happy about it.
What I think will happen is that NATO will continue to bankroll this as long as possible. Then some people in Russia not named Putin will decide they've had enough and he will find something unpleasant, like his head, in his dinner one night.
Then Russia will rapidly claim to have won by inventing some BS victory condition like "having killed all the NAZIs in Donbass" or some such bullshit.
They will demoralize whatever is left of their troops and will start trying to figure out how to make money on the rebuilding.
As for the GDP data:
In 2022 the GDP for the state of California was $3.4T. The GDP for the entire country of Russia was $1.7T
The NATO military budget at $1.1T is nearly the size of Russia's entire GDP. NATO can completely support Ukraine in this out of just their training budget.
spat
.700 Nitro Express
It is utterly impossible for Russia to compete with NATO. It doesn't matter what they must do.
That's like saying my high-school varsity basketball team must beat the 1992 US Olympic team. It doesn't matter how important it is, it's not going to happen.
Russian GDP is $1.7T. NATO GDP is $18.4T.
It doesn't matter how scrappy your pit bull is, it's going to lose in a fight with a Bengal tiger.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
you forget one thing, russia has nuclear weapons and wont accept a military defeat. the west doesn't want to provoke a nuclear war . so NATO has to be carefull too.
They dont have to.
They have no choice. win lose or draw
Thats very possible .
thats ridiculous . Its something that can never happen
No doubt. but Russia gets a vote when this ends
Thats pretty shocking , I thought you were just overstating it . that is a problem , It can be overcome to some extent because of the huge inventory of old soviet stuff and the use of loans , but in the long run its a loser. that being said the condition of NATO forces in inEurope arnt much better
The British Army has 227 Challenger 2 tanks
How many main battle tanks does Germany have?
Germany has about 350 Leopard 2 tanks today,
How many T-72 tanks does Poland have?
Poland – 130 T-72A/T-72M1/M1R in active service as of 2022.
Thats what Trump was bitching about , these guys invested nothing because the USA/ NATO had thier back besides the US NATO isnt in any great shape for a war either.
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holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Yeah, its pretty hellish , I feel bad for those guys on both sides I dont watch to many of them , some are pretty gruesome.
spat
.700 Nitro Express
Yes, the US has always carried NATO like a sherpa carries a fat tourist up a mountain.
The annual military budget for NATO is about $1.1T in 2023 (up from $910B in 2014). The US is about $860B of that (Germany comes in 2nd with $68B).
So, really NATO is the US. But when you compare, Russia's entire 2023 military budget is $75B. If they were In NATO they would be the second largest member.
If the US states were listed individually in the list of NATO contributors the top 10 places would all be US states, Russia would come in somewhere in the teens, with Germany and the rest of NATO behind then.
It really is that stark.
Honest criticism, we have so much fraud waste and abuse in our government and military procurement and management process. Plus we are trying to staff and support roughly 200ish bases worldwide. Our budget is spread out all over the place. Russias budget is laser focused in their sphere of influence. We pay e-1s like 30k a year and counting benefits and additional expenses probably more like 60k a year just per e-1. Russia pays literal fractions of that. Just it's hard to compare strictly budgets to military effectiveness.
China is far more effective than their military budget would indicate. They fudge a lot of numbers.
spat
.700 Nitro Express
Sure, we have more waste because we have 10x the budget.
But if you think the Russian budget isn't getting siphoned off to corruption you're fooling yourself.
Also, our payroll is going to be drastically higher than theirs because we pay a lot more. But we also get a much higher quality of soldier out of it.
So, maybe a 10x budget doesn't translate to a 10x effectiveness, but it still puts us a literal order of magnitude higher.
Ukraine has fought Russia to a standstill for a year and a half using essentially NATO's spare change.
Acer-m14
20×102mm Vulcan
Chris Christie gifts Zelensky handwritten lyrics to Bon Jovi’s ‘It’s My Life’ as ‘inspiration’
Chris Christie gifted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed lyrics to a Bon Jovi hit.
nypost.com
spat
.700 Nitro Express
LoL, leave it to a RINO to send someone who's being attacked some autographed song lyrics.Chris Christie gifts Zelensky handwritten lyrics to Bon Jovi’s ‘It’s My Life’ as ‘inspiration’
Chris Christie gifted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed lyrics to a Bon Jovi hit.
He'd probably toss a drowning man a beer too, great guy.
Chris Christie is vital to sabotaging traffic on Kerch bridge. It's a game changer.
spat
.700 Nitro Express
NATO is quite capable of supplying as much material as it takes to continue the stalemate indefinitely.
Russia, not so much.
Russia will run out of material before NATO is out of the surplus they were going to have to pay to destroy. This is literally just going to rotate stock for the US so our shelves have fresh ammo on them.
Article says they're ramping production up to 80k 155mm shells a month in the US. Eventually going to settle at 1M/year. Russia just can't come close to that, and they running out of Soviet surplus.
www.businessinsider.com
Russia, not so much.
Russia will run out of material before NATO is out of the surplus they were going to have to pay to destroy. This is literally just going to rotate stock for the US so our shelves have fresh ammo on them.
Article says they're ramping production up to 80k 155mm shells a month in the US. Eventually going to settle at 1M/year. Russia just can't come close to that, and they running out of Soviet surplus.
Ukraine is eating through a key artillery shell, but the US Army has a plan to make hundreds of thousands more each year
The US is currently producing up to 24,000 155 mm shells a month, but it looks to ramp production up to over 80,000 shells a month.
www.businessinsider.com
When the cheerleading western media is quietly and subtly changing how it's reporting on the war you know things aren't going well for Ukraine.
Why the Ukrainian counteroffensive is making little progress against Russian defense.
The counteroffensive against Russia by Ukraine is heavily backed by the U.S. and its allies. But little progress has been made as death toll rises.
www.usatoday.com
spat
.700 Nitro Express
The real subtle change is that the question went from "how long will it take Russia to conquer all of Ukraine" to "will the Ukrainians be able to push the Russians back across the border".When the cheerleading western media is quietly and subtly changing how it's reporting on the war you know things aren't going well for Ukraine.
Why the Ukrainian counteroffensive is making little progress against Russian defense.
The counteroffensive against Russia by Ukraine is heavily backed by the U.S. and its allies. But little progress has been made as death toll rises.www.usatoday.com
There is no longer a question of Putin dining in Kiev.
Yes I totally agree there the initial Russian strategy was very confusing and an epic failure. I cannot understand if they were seriously trying to capture kiev or not. I think they expected to largely be welcomed at least "Luke warm" level since there is so much Russian heritage in Ukraine. I don't think they anticipated the response. And I certainly don't think that they were anticipating the Americans essentially being the eyes and ears telling Ukraine exactly what when and where the Russians were moving. Ukraine did everything perfectly based on conditions in the opening month of the war and in likelihood survived because of this.
IMO russia was not anticipating this turning into a long drawn out conflict. They like believed this would be something akin to invading Iraq. Just go in with shock and awe and the Ukrainians will lay down their arms or offer up token resistance. Clearly that estimate was not accurate.
The real tragedy is I don't know how this ends except I know a lot more people are going to die. It's the regular people on both sides suffering for the political elites.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
CNN
Weeks into Ukraine’s highly anticipated counteroffensive, Western officials describe increasingly “sobering” assessments about Ukrainian forces’ ability to retake significant territory, four senior US and western officials briefed on the latest intelligence told CNN.
“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat told CNN.
“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently returned from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armored forces. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”
The primary challenge for Ukrainian forces is the continued difficulty of breaking through Russia’s multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces have incurred staggering losses there, leading Ukrainian commanders to hold back some units to regroup and reduce casualties.
“Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line,” said a senior Western diplomat. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard.”
A senior US official said the US recognizes the difficulties Ukrainian forces are facing, though retains hope for renewed progress.
“We all recognize this is going harder and slower than anyone would like – including the Ukrainians – but we still believe there’s time and space for them to be able make progress,” this official said.
White House National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby addressed the speed of Ukraine’s counteroffensive Tuesday, telling CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on “The Situation Room” that “even the Ukrainians … including President Zelensky, have said that they’re not going as far as or as fast as he would like.”
Multiple officials said the approach of fall, when weather and fighting conditions are expected to worsen, gives Ukrainian forces a limited window to push forward.
Western officials also say the slow progress has exposed the difficulty of transforming Ukrainian forces into combined mechanized fighting units, sometimes with as few as eight weeks of training on western-supplied tanks and other new weapons systems. The lack of progress on the ground is one reason Ukrainian forces have been striking more often inside Russian territory “to try and show Russian vulnerability,” said a senior US military official.
Western allies receive increasingly ‘sobering’ updates on Ukraine’s counteroffensive: ‘This is the most difficult time of the war’
Weeks into Ukraine’s highly anticipated counteroffensive, Western officials describe increasingly “sobering” assessments about Ukrainian forces’ ability to retake significant territory, four senior US and western officials briefed on the latest intelligence told CNN.
“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat told CNN.
“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently returned from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armored forces. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”
The primary challenge for Ukrainian forces is the continued difficulty of breaking through Russia’s multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces have incurred staggering losses there, leading Ukrainian commanders to hold back some units to regroup and reduce casualties.
“Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line,” said a senior Western diplomat. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard.”
A senior US official said the US recognizes the difficulties Ukrainian forces are facing, though retains hope for renewed progress.
“We all recognize this is going harder and slower than anyone would like – including the Ukrainians – but we still believe there’s time and space for them to be able make progress,” this official said.
White House National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby addressed the speed of Ukraine’s counteroffensive Tuesday, telling CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on “The Situation Room” that “even the Ukrainians … including President Zelensky, have said that they’re not going as far as or as fast as he would like.”
Multiple officials said the approach of fall, when weather and fighting conditions are expected to worsen, gives Ukrainian forces a limited window to push forward.
Western officials also say the slow progress has exposed the difficulty of transforming Ukrainian forces into combined mechanized fighting units, sometimes with as few as eight weeks of training on western-supplied tanks and other new weapons systems. The lack of progress on the ground is one reason Ukrainian forces have been striking more often inside Russian territory “to try and show Russian vulnerability,” said a senior US military official.
kev74
20×102mm Vulcan
I am happy to say I and several posters in this thread stayed "sober" all along, while retired generals on news networks are hopeless alcoholics with egg on their face.
Especially this asshole, who also invented "fully semi-automatic rifle".
Especially this asshole, who also invented "fully semi-automatic rifle".
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I'm pretty convinced the West and nato doesn't actually really want Ukraine to win. NATO thinks winning is turning this into a 3 to 5 year war with a million plus casualties.
They want to give Ukraine enough to keep going but not enough to get themselves directly in a war with Russia
They want to use the Ukrainians as cannon fodder to wear down and weaken the Russians and drag this out as long as possible and deplete Russia of men and equipment.
They want to give Ukraine enough to keep going but not enough to get themselves directly in a war with Russia
They want to use the Ukrainians as cannon fodder to wear down and weaken the Russians and drag this out as long as possible and deplete Russia of men and equipment.
Robin
.475 A&M Magnum
I have no idea what the end game is, but with the way things have been done in the last few years, it won't be good for USa.
Robin
Robin
This should not be a shock to anyone who has been paying attention. This is not new.
news.yahoo.com
Russia is saving the majority of their real troops for direct conflict with NATO.
Right now Russia is just throwing bullet sponges at Ukraine to wear them down. So everyone can keep saying how many loses Russia has suffered but I'm not sure it really matters much. It's addition by subtraction for them. They are holding back their better units. That's not a coincidence.
Russian invaders use regular military sparingly, deploying conscripts and convicts instead for assaults
Russian invaders are using conscripts and convicts for large-scale assaults on Ukrainian positions, and if they manage to achieve results, only then do they send regular military personnel into battle.
Russia is saving the majority of their real troops for direct conflict with NATO.
Right now Russia is just throwing bullet sponges at Ukraine to wear them down. So everyone can keep saying how many loses Russia has suffered but I'm not sure it really matters much. It's addition by subtraction for them. They are holding back their better units. That's not a coincidence.
He was elected on a platform to improve relations with Russia and end civil war in Donbas. As soon as he got elected he did the opposite on both promises. He could have been a statesman, but he chose to be a puppet of the West. That relationship is not going well either. Even mainstream media acknowledges the rift, although minimizing it.
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ManualF150
.308 Win
Not tied to Russia directly, but read this today regarding China and the US: Facing China, the US needs a new civil preparedness movement