Things are heating up in the Donbass

[spat]

Its almost as if your watching a different war, some place else.

​

​

Russia has enough missiles to again hammer Ukraine with massive barrages, but it looks to be going after different targets​

Jan2 2024

Over the past few days, Russia has launched massive long-range strikes against Ukraine, targeting both civilian and military infrastructure. Last Friday's attack has been described by Ukrainian officials as the worst aerial strike of the war, involving 158 missiles and drones and a death toll of at least 39 people.

On Tuesday, Russia followed that attack with more than 130 missiles, 10 of which were Kinzhal missiles, and drones. Ukraine said it was able to shoot down the majority of the incoming threats, including all of the Kinzhals, using Western-provided air defenses such as the US-made Patriot.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Tuesday that since last Friday, the Russians have lobbed about 500 missiles and drones at his country.

"For Russia, the supply of strike munitions is increasing. In October 2022 Russia was producing approximately 40 long-range missiles a month. Now it is producing over 100 a month, and this is supplemented by large numbers of Geran-2 UAVs," Jack Watling, a land warfare expert at the Royal United Services Institute, wrote in an October report.

Russia has enough missiles to again hammer Ukraine with massive barrages, but it looks to be going after different targets

Russia is ramping up production and rebuilding once dwindling stockpiles for big attacks, but it's unclear how long it can keep it up.

www.businessinsider.com

158 missiles and they only managed to kill 39 people.

I rest my case.

At the full war output they quoted of 100 missiles a month, that is not going to affect the ability to stage aircraft west of Kiev.

 

[Mosinitis]

 

[holdover]

Recent Russian production figures

In October, according to Skibitsky, Russia reportedly manufactured around 115 high-precision missiles with a range exceeding 350 kilometres. This production breakdown includes:

• Approximately 20 "Kalibr" missiles
• About 40 X-101 missiles

Additionally, Russia is producing around 30 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 12 Iskander-K cruise missiles monthly. They are also engaged in the modernization of X-22 missiles, converting them into X-32 missiles, with a monthly output of approximately 9 units.

HUR Reveals Russia's Missile Stockpile and Production Capacity

The number of missiles Russia has in stock is pretty much the same as last year. This suggests that Moscow can keep making these missiles and keep enough on hand.

www.kyivpost.com

 

[holdover]

158 missiles and they only managed to kill 39 people.

I rest my case.

How much damage do you think 158 missiles did in one day? They dont target them to kill people but to destroy assets. they can hit a bingo hall and kill more people than that. They are strategic missiles Not tactical

 

[spat]

How much damage do you think 158 missiles did in one day? They dont target them to kill people but to destroy assets. they can hit a bingo hall and kill more people than that. They are strategic missiles Not tactical

And that's just not enough to matter.

They launched 158 missiles. Most of which were shot down.

They can only sustain 100 a month. That's nothing. Maybe 10 of them hit an actual useful target ? At what cost ?

In Desert Storm we flew 100,000 sorties in a month.

To compare, the US inventory of Tomahawks is about 4000.

Not sure what the total NATO inventory is. But Japan just bought 400 of them, and Australia 200, so I'm guessing we're pumping them out pretty quickly.

Imagine if we started giving them to Ukraine LOL.

 

[holdover]

They launched 158 missiles. Most of which were shot down.

They can only sustain 100 a month. That's nothing.

You can believe whatever you want. Ukraine is producing zero missiles per month.zero tanks per month, zero aircraft per month, while Russia is finishing new weapons facility's. The fact is , Ukraine is losing. The US isnt going to throw good money after bad forever. At some point they cut their losses. the writing on the wall is clear. short of a NATO attack on Russia , nothing is going to save her now.

 

[holdover]

Ukrainian soldiers are upset.

 

[spat]

You can believe whatever you want. Ukraine is producing zero missiles per month.zero tanks per month, zero aircraft per month, while Russia is finishing new weapons facility's. The fact is , Ukraine is losing. The US isnt going to throw good money after bad forever. At some point they cut their losses. the writing on the wall is clear. short of a NATO attack on Russia , nothing is going to save her now.

Maybe.

But at this point *any* victory Russia can eke out in Ukraine will be a Phyrric one.

Everybody assumed Putin would be dining in Kiev before that first summer. And they also assumed the occupation of Ukraine would destroy Russia.

The pain for Russia doesn't even *start* until they have won the war.

What are they getting out of this whole adventure again ?

 

[holdover]

But at this point *any* victory Russia can eke out in Ukraine will be a Phyrric one.

Pretty much. But thats how they roll

Everybody assumed Putin would be dining in Kiev before that first summer.

Yup, a lot of military analysts thought so, and so did I. They weren't ready for a conflict of this size, their military leadership was awful, it still isnt all that good.

And they also assumed the occupation of Ukraine would destroy Russia.

The pain for Russia doesn't even *start* until they have won the war.

Im not seeing that so long as they dont take Western Ukraine. The majority of civilians in the East are Russian or back Russia , Most of the able bodied men there have either left the country, enlisted or been drafted, . I dont think the population in the east can launch an effective guerrilla war. and even if they did, The Russians wont fight it like We do. They arnt one for appearances, They will arrest the whole town and they will dig out who the enemy's are . And honestly, I dont think they will have the stomach for more killing , I think most will be glad the war is over and either move to another country, Western Ukraine or just get on with thier lives.

I do suspect at some point the Poles may invade Western Ukraine and annex it or something similar to prevent it from falling into Russian hands
The Russians claim they wont recognize that and will kill any pole that invades, Who knows how that will play out .


""What are they getting out of this whole adventure again ?""

A buffer with the west which is what they wanted from the get go Some of the best farmland in the world , total control of the black sea if they take Odessa, which is on the menu. Ukraines natural gas, and gas transit lines to Europe. There is a lot of strategic and economic value in Ukraine.

 

[Mosinitis]

Chechen conflict had more dire prognosis. Look at them now and they were culturally different, different ethnos, different religion. Russia today is much more sophisticated than the U.S. at multicultural coexistence.

 

[spat]

Pretty much. But thats how they roll

Yup, a lot of military analysts thought so, and so did I. They weren't ready for a conflict of this size, their military leadership was awful, it still isnt all that good.


Im not seeing that so long as they dont take Western Ukraine. The majority of civilians in the East are Russian or back Russia , Most of the able bodied men there have either left the country, enlisted or been drafted, . I dont think the population in the east can launch an effective guerrilla war. and even if they did, The Russians wont fight it like We do. They arnt one for appearances, They will arrest the whole town and they will dig out who the enemy's are . And honestly, I dont think they will have the stomach for more killing , I think most will be glad the war is over and either move to another country, Western Ukraine or just get on with thier lives.

I do suspect at some point the Poles may invade Western Ukraine and annex it or something similar to prevent it from falling into Russian hands
The Russians claim they wont recognize that and will kill any pole that invades, Who knows how that will play out .


""What are they getting out of this whole adventure again ?""

A buffer with the west which is what they wanted from the get go Some of the best farmland in the world , total control of the black sea if they take Odessa, which is on the menu. Ukraines natural gas, and gas transit lines to Europe. There is a lot of strategic and economic value in Ukraine.

The Russians didn't fare any better against the insurgents in Afghanistan than we did.

They have 2 new NATO nations on their border now than they did when this started.

If they annex easten Ukraine only, then it's almost guaranteed that what's left in the west will join NATO ASAP.

Why does Russia think they *need* a buffer against NATO ?

If NATO attacks, another 100 miles, or 1000 isn't going to make much difference. Russia is so ridiculously overmatched. It's like Cuba demanding part of Southern Florida for "a buffer" LOL.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Maybe.

But at this point *any* victory Russia can eke out in Ukraine will be a Phyrric one.

Everybody assumed Putin would be dining in Kiev before that first summer. And they also assumed the occupation of Ukraine would destroy Russia.

The pain for Russia doesn't even *start* until they have won the war.

What are they getting out of this whole adventure again ?

2 points,

The US might have 4000 tomahawks. But if we start using them we will not be able to reliably replenish that supply. I don't believe our contractors are really producing them in any meaningful quantities and it would not be easy to quickly just flip the switch to ramp up production.

Look at how we're fighting the Houthis. We're using million dollar surface to air missiles to shoot down thousand dollar drones. That's not economically or sustainable.

Russia is on a committed war economy, the west is not.



Russias single biggest mistake was not devoting enough resources to the initial invasion and thinking they would receive more widespread support from local citizens. That's was their biggest blunder. They were likely worried about massing too many troops to give away their intentions but they should have been able to achieve their objectives in the first week of the war. To me this miscalculation is the biggest tragedy of the entire war. Ukraine wouldn't have suffered so much if this hasn't dragged on for 2 years with the end result being inevitable just taking longer and more suffering to reach.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

The Russians didn't fare any better against the insurgents in Afghanistan than we did.

They have 2 new NATO nations on their border now than they did when this started.

If they annex easten Ukraine only, then it's almost guaranteed that what's left in the west will join NATO ASAP.

Why does Russia think they *need* a buffer against NATO ?

If NATO attacks, another 100 miles, or 1000 isn't going to make much difference. Russia is so ridiculously overmatched. It's like Cuba demanding part of Southern Florida for "a buffer" LOL.

Honestly it's the same reason we don't want Russia in Cuba.

The Ukrainian border is mere kilometers by.air and ground to Moscow. If we had the eastern block or China setting up shop in southern Ontario we would not allow it either. We would say get the hell out of here this is an existential threat

 

[spat]

Honestly it's the same reason we don't want Russia in Cuba.

The Ukrainian border is mere kilometers by.air and ground to Moscow. If we had the eastern block or China setting up shop in southern Ontario we would not allow it either. We would say get the hell out of here this is an existential threat

It's completely understandable that Russia doesn't *want* NATO in Ukraine.

They don't want NATO in Poland either, but thems the breaks.

Now, would we be justified in *invading* Cuba or Canada if China or Russia set up shop there ?

Historically we got pretty close with Cuba during the cold war, but this isn't the cold war.

Would Ukraine have been justified in invading western Russia to establish a 100 mile buffer zone ?

Maybe NATO should invade Belarus to establish their own "buffer zone".

Russia is the only country on the continent that shows imperialistic tendencies this century, realistically they are the only one anyone *needs* a buffer from.

 

[Robin]

Chechen conflict had more dire prognosis. Look at them now and they were culturally different, different ethnos, different religion. Russia today is much more sophisticated than the U.S. at multicultural coexistence.

Yeah, just kill off those that oppose your dictatorial rule and everything is copasetic. OH, I guess in your fantasy world that means sophisticated.

What Putin's destruction of Grozny in 1999 means for Ukraine now

In 1999, Putin ordered the airstrikes and bombing that razed the Chechen capital of Grozny. Could he do it again, in Ukraine?

www.wbur.org

Russia’s Relentless Hunt of Chechens Decades After Putin’s War

Exiles fear being sent back to be tortured and killed

www.voanews.com

Robin

 

[Mosinitis]

Brutal NPR high on brutal Russophobia did a brutal hit piece on Kadirov accusing him of brutal treatment of LGBTQ.
"Russia invaded a small Republic" what a fucking liars.

 

[holdover]

It's completely understandable that Russia doesn't *want* NATO in Ukraine.

They don't want NATO in Poland either, but thems the breaks.

I dont think you understand the peramaters that are in effect here.Your looking at the equation wrong.

A deal was made allowing Ukraine to become independent under conditions which they agreed to. which was neutrality. Any violation or breech of this condition was made crystal clear that Russia would consider such, a national security breech and military action would follow.

Its in black and white and repeated endlesslessly for the last 30 years. there is no good reason for NATO to expand and place armies on the Russian border itself except to fight Russia at some future date. None. those armies would be intended to defend or fight whom? who would the NATO missiles be aimed at?

The US almost went to war with Russia for putting missiles in Cuba , a communist country and Allie of the soviets, because of grave national security threats. the US was compelled to take action to protect itself . It was so important they were ready to start a nuclear war over it. The world held its breath while these 2 countrys squared off .

The US was correct to protect itself as is the Russian federation. When the US tried to pull this shit in Georgia which isnt really even in europe the Russians could either allow it or do something about it. they chose to kick the shit out of them . like they are doing to Ukraine right now.

 

[Robin]

That is not a lie. Many of those politically delineated areas call themselves "The Republic of" ................whatever. We know, they know, the world knows, they are under the thumb of Vlad the Mad.
Russian tsars waged protracted campaigns to conquer the North Caucasus in the 19th century. After the October Revolution of 1917, Chechnya and its neighbours declared independence (as did Ukraine around the same time). Bolshevik forces eventually retook the region. When the Soviet Union collapsed, Chechen nationalists, the elder Kadyrov among them, moved again to break away from Moscow. In 1994, Boris Yeltsin, Russia’s president, launched the first Chechen war, a bloody attempt to regain control of the territory; it ended in 1996 with Chechnya’s de facto independence intact. Three years later, Russia started another war, this time with Mr Putin at the helm, promising to “waste them in the outhouse” (like Mr Putin’s war in Ukraine, it was not officially called a war, but rather a “counter-terrorism operation”). Mr Putin received a helping hand from Kadyrov, a Sufi Muslim who had come to see siding with Russia as the only way to eradicate the Islamic fundamentalism gaining traction in the region. Mr Putin placed Kadyrov in charge of the region in 2003, but he was assassinated less than a year later. Ramzan, then just 27 years old, quickly took power.
This development is not surprising. For more than a decade, under Kadyrov’s rule and with the Kremlin’s support, all forms of dissent in Chechnya have been ruthlessly eradicated. Egregious cases of torture, public humiliation, enforced disappearances, and extrajudicial killings by local law enforcement and security agencies under Kadyrov’s de facto control have never been effectively investigated. Moscow efficiently covers up for the crimes perpetrated by Chechen authorities.
Robin

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Just watched this video. It was very enlightening to hear first hand perspective on how war has evolved and changed and things to consider.

 

[Mosinitis]

Chechnya was a part of Russian Federation before and after break up of the Soviet Union, you can't "INVADE" your own country. U.S., Great Britain, Turkey and Saudi Arabia supported separatist movement and later Islamic insurgency. This was during so called U.S. friendship period with Russia. Nice friends.

During the Russian Civil War most of Chechens fought on the side of the Red Army. So did most of ethnic minorities in the Caucasus.

 

[Mosinitis]

Just watched this video. It was very enlightening to hear first hand perspective on how war has evolved and changed and things to consider.

They talk as if they are winning. This was posted on YouTube two days ago. Who knows when this was filmed. They could be tits up now.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

They talk as if they are winning. This was posted on YouTube two days ago. Who knows when this was filmed. They could be tits up now.

Based on comments about past events and winter ending turning to spring soon (as an example removing white disruptive tape off kit) and looking at what Idaho (where this was filmed) looks like currently I would say it's fairly recent. Probably not more than 2 weeks old.

I don't think they talked as if they were winning. It was a good non political discussion to let people know what modern trench warfare is like. Obviously they have their bias and personal slant on their narrative but I didn't think it was overly lecturing or political.

I took it for what it was worth as a first hand account of hard lessons learned and things to worry about on modern battlefields. It seems hellish and lethal.

 

[Mosinitis]

Based on comments about past events and winter ending turning to spring soon (as an example removing white disruptive tape off kit) and looking at what Idaho (where this was filmed) looks like currently I would say it's fairly recent. Probably not more than 2 weeks old.

I don't think they talked as if they were winning. It was a good non political discussion to let people know what modern trench warfare is like. Obviously they have their bias and personal slant on their narrative but I didn't think it was overly lecturing or political.

I took it for what it was worth as a first hand account of hard lessons learned and things to worry about on modern battlefields. It seems hellish and lethal.

I didn't watch the whole video. They are annoying, remember the types from my OCS days. They came to the Russian Safari. There is a special place in hell for them.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

I didn't watch the whole video. They are annoying, remember the types from my OCS days. They came to the Russian Safari. There is a special place in hell for them.

I don't know why people feel the need to go and be unwitting pawns manipulated to fight for corporate and political greed when there are plenty of worthwhile causes here at home to get involved in and devote your energy to improving our country instead.

In their hearts they probably genuinely feel they are doing good however misguided the entire situation may be.

 

[spat]

I dont think you understand the peramaters that are in effect here.Your looking at the equation wrong.

A deal was made allowing Ukraine to become independent under conditions which they agreed to. which was neutrality. Any violation or breech of this condition was made crystal clear that Russia would consider such, a national security breech and military action would follow.

Its in black and white and repeated endlesslessly for the last 30 years. there is no good reason for NATO to expand and place armies on the Russian border itself except to fight Russia at some future date. None. those armies would be intended to defend or fight whom? who would the NATO missiles be aimed at?

The US almost went to war with Russia for putting missiles in Cuba , a communist country and Allie of the soviets, because of grave national security threats. the US was compelled to take action to protect itself . It was so important they were ready to start a nuclear war over it. The world held its breath while these 2 countrys squared off .

The US was correct to protect itself as is the Russian federation. When the US tried to pull this shit in Georgia which isnt really even in europe the Russians could either allow it or do something about it. they chose to kick the shit out of them . like they are doing to Ukraine right now.

But, the cold war is over. Russia is not the USSR no matter how much Putin wants to pretend otherwise.

The only reason NATO would fight Russia is if Russia tried to invade a NATO member. And if NATO *did* decide to fight Russia, it wouldn't matter how much "buffer" they had.

NATO could go through Belarus in hours if they wanted.

NATO has never invaded anyone. It's not even clear *how* NATO could do that, and it is *quite* clear that if a NATO member decides to invade someone else, they're on their own.

So, if Ukraine joined NATO, and they decided they wanted to create their own "buffer zone" out of the western 100 miles of Russia, they would be on their own. They would not get to invoke article 5 and get any support from NATO.

Also, Russia was in no condition to demand any terms. Could Ukraine have demanded terms from Russia after the breakup ?

If Ukraine hadn't voluntarily given up their nuclear weapons, we wouldn't even be having this discussion anymore at all.

Russia needs to get over their delusion that they are still a world power and a peer to NATO. They are not.

And of course, Russia now has more of NATO on their border than ever.

 

[Mosinitis]

Russian Federation is the legal and Internationally recognized descendent of the Soviet Union. It was mutually agreed upon by all sides at the time of break up of the Soviet Union. It wasn't even viewed as concession to Russia, because U.S. and most of the world were concerned about custody of Soviet nuclear arsenal and adherence to International treaties made with the Soviet Union. Not only that, U.S. agreed to pay for removal of nuclear weapons and moving them into Russian Federation. Some of us here were old enough in 1991 to follow the news, even casually.

 

[Mosinitis]

But, the cold war is over. Russia is not the USSR no matter how much Putin wants to pretend otherwise.

The only reason NATO would fight Russia is if Russia tried to invade a NATO member. And if NATO *did* decide to fight Russia, it wouldn't matter how much "buffer" they had.

NATO could go through Belarus in hours if they wanted.

NATO has never invaded anyone. It's not even clear *how* NATO could do that, and it is *quite* clear that if a NATO member decides to invade someone else, they're on their own.

So, if Ukraine joined NATO, and they decided they wanted to create their own "buffer zone" out of the western 100 miles of Russia, they would be on their own. They would not get to invoke article 5 and get any support from NATO.

Also, Russia was in no condition to demand any terms. Could Ukraine have demanded terms from Russia after the breakup ?

If Ukraine hadn't voluntarily given up their nuclear weapons, we wouldn't even be having this discussion anymore at all.

Russia needs to get over their delusion that they are still a world power and a peer to NATO. They are not.

And of course, Russia now has more of NATO on their border than ever.

Can you let go of your front and back yard and allow public use of these areas. - the West

OK, I will do it in the interest of friendship, on the condition it will not be used by criminals and thieves targeting my home - Russia

Okey, dokey. - the West

fast forward few decades

I thought we agreed on non-threatening use of our front and back yard. - Russia

You don't have a say in who is in your front and back yards, we will work to make sure none of them are your friends. - the West

 

[holdover]

But, the cold war is over. Russia is not the USSR no matter how much Putin wants to pretend otherwise.

Thats what we were told. But the west never let Russia play in any reindeer games. it isolated Russia , Russia wanted to join NATO , But Obviously if Russia joined NATO then what would NATO be good for? What would be the point? the west needed an enemy to justify the business Arms manufacture. The soviet union was broke. communism failed , We won. So why not welcome Russia with open arms into the western economy's? Because All the senators on the arms appropriation committee would lose a shit ton of money, billions a year . the military industrial complex and all of the politicians tied to it would lose a fortune. As soon as the soviet union collasped, we found a war in iraq . Yugoslavia, Somalia, then 911 and a ten year war in Iraq , 20 year war in Afganistan , Now we have Ukraine and Mideast. . the blood of the entire system revolves around war . Taiwan is on the back burner in case peace breaks out .

The only reason NATO would fight Russia is if Russia tried to invade a NATO member. And if NATO *did* decide to fight Russia, it wouldn't matter how much "buffer" they had.

NATO could go through Belarus in hours if they wanted.

Outwardly yes. But theres subtleties people miss. First is the people of the US dont really run the country, Our policys are not based on our own best interests but in the interests of giant global entities , And Russia is in the way of their big plans , they wont give up sovereignty, they wont give up Nationalism, they wont allow foreigners from Africa to enter destroying their nationalism like the US and Europe. the end game is the destruction of the US and Europe. This is a back door war intended to crash the russian economy and break her up into several regions like Yugoslavia , and what they are slowly doing here . It didnt work. We started the war in Ukraine , We put in a new goverment, We armed Ukraine, We instigated the whole thing , with the goal of cracking Russia and breaking her up . And even if you dont agree, thats what Russia is seeing. the encroahment from West germany to the border of Russia , one promise after another broke by the west.

Thats one reason they hated Trump. they had the whole thing set up to go under hillery clinton. and trump fucked them , they had to sit on thier hands for 4 fucking years trying everything they could to get rid of this guy , then they could not allow trump to win under any circumstance . Biden wins, NATO is going to vote on Ukraine's entrance to NATO and Russia invades . Exactly what they intended to do from the get go , provoke Russia into a war where they could crush her economy, causing chaos and turmoil in Russia splitting her up into separate regions .
That was the goal. We have to look at all the circumstances and events leading up to the war. not just the day Ukraine was invaded

NATO has never invaded anyone. It's not even clear *how* NATO could do that, and it is *quite* clear that if a NATO member decides to invade someone else, they're on their own.

Nato took military action in Somalia, Iraq, Yugoslavia, Afganistan Libya. They are working covertly in Ukraine against Russia , Nato is supplying weapons money and mercenaries , the financial intitutions of NATO have banned them from trade with the west. they took them off of the swift program . they fucked them in so many ways to try to bring her to her knees. Ukraine is where the war is being fought but its not what the war was about. Ukraine was a means to an end .

And of course, Russia now has more of NATO on their border than ever.

Well isnt that strange?

 

[spat]

Can you let go of your front and back yard and allow public use of these areas. - the West

OK, I will do it in the interest of friendship, on the condition it will not be used by criminals and thieves targeting my home - Russia

Okey, dokey. - the West

fast forward few decades

I thought we agreed on non-threatening use of our front and back yard. - Russia

You don't have a say in who is in your front and back yards, we will work to make sure none of them are your friends. - the West

Ukraine isn't Russia's back yard.

Ukraine is it's own property.

It never was Russia's yard.

Russia needs to get over thinking they're the USSR. They aren't.

To your yard analogy, you used to belong to an HOA, the HOA dissolved. And now you're upset that your neighbor is putting in a garage on his own property that they HOA wouldn't have allowed, and you want to pretend that you own the land, but you don't.

 

[Mosinitis]

Ukraine isn't Russia's back yard.

Ukraine is it's own property.

It never was Russia's yard.

Russia needs to get over thinking they're the USSR. They aren't.

To your yard analogy, you used to belong to an HOA, the HOA dissolved. And now you're upset that your neighbor is putting in a garage on his own property that they HOA wouldn't have allowed, and you want to pretend that you own the land, but you don't.

Both sides can make a feast out of red herring.

USSR was never legally dissolved. While each Soviet Republic could leave Soviet Union following a specified constitutional process, there was no provision for dissolvement of the Soviet Union in the Soviet Constitution. Leaders of 4 out of 15 Soviet republics could not meet secretly and jointly proclaim the break up of the country. That was done illegitimately