U.S. Blames Iran as Global Energy Prices Soar After Saudi Oil Attack - "Black Swan"?

[prambo]

Has all the ramifications that could create a total shitstorm - global financial meltdown, Middle East war, societal upheaval, etc, etc.

Is this the "Black Swan" that overturns the chess board? Oil is still the cornerstone of the world economy, and no one has tried to even start building one new nuclear power plant, which is the only solution that can work on a large scale. In fact, in NYS they are slated for closing.

Global Energy Prices Soar After Saudi Oil Attack, U.S. Blaming Iran

 

[GOPerfect]

Yes. War is on the horizon in that region.

Big, long, real war!

 

[prambo]

Yes. War is on the horizon in that region.

Big, long, real war!

Looks like that to me, too.

The area has been a pressure cooker for decades and Iran has been flexing its muscles much more recently. Unfortunately, once something kicks off it will spread like wildfire, and will be used as an excuse to attack Israel, which has nukes. I'm guessing, but really don't believe that Iran has not proceeded with enrichment and nuke technology well off the radar.

In the end, oil supply is just a lever that can be used to create chaos. At the bottom is the ages old split of Sunni and Shia.

 

[GOPerfect]

The Saudis will retaliate. And they will retaliate hard.

 

[tirwin1]

Let them. We should stay out of this.

 

[kev74]

I assumed this was intended to get the Saudis to go after Iran without us getting involved.

If I had to guess, I'd bet its Israel's doing, but what do I know.

 

[HIghlander]

IIRC, The Bible stated Jerusalem is where Armageddon starts.

 

[Deplorable Me]

I thought the US was actually exporting oil? Seems Trump's energy independence objectives look pretty good now.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

U.S. "Locked and Loaded" to Proceed over Saudi Oil Refinery Attack UPDATED 6:58 AM EDT "ACT OF WAR"

It doesn't look good.

 

[GOPerfect]

US 'locked and loaded' after Saudi oil attack: Trump

 

[prambo]

Posted this in another thread...the interesting thing is that, according to Kunstler, shale oil may not be usable by our refineries, and that's not good...

"It’s also the case that shale oil is ultra-light crude, containing little heavier distillates such as diesel and aviation fuel (basically kerosene). Alas, American refineries were all built before shale oil came along. They were designed to crack heavier oil and can’t handle the lighter shale."

A View from the Brink - Kunstler

ETA: And add in the attempted demise of the American coal industry by Obola and others, along with enviro-wackos tying up oil pipe-lines in court, and you have a very real problem if this does unravel.

 

[dubleuhb]

Posted this in another thread...the interesting thing is that, according to Kunstler, shale oil may not be usable by our refineries, and that's not good...

"It’s also the case that shale oil is ultra-light crude, containing little heavier distillates such as diesel and aviation fuel (basically kerosene). Alas, American refineries were all built before shale oil came along. They were designed to crack heavier oil and can’t handle the lighter shale."

A View from the Brink - Kunstler

ETA: And add in the attempted demise of the American coal industry by Obola and others, along with enviro-wackos tying up oil pipe-lines in court, and you have a very real problem if this does unravel.

This is true about the refineries, shale oil and the crude they draw out takes a different process to crack.

 

[Blimey]

I thought the US was actually exporting oil? Seems Trump's energy independence objectives look pretty good now.

To be fair it's not trump, without google I recall that during obama administration the US finally become a net exporter of energy or something, but meh I cannot remember if it was energy or oil. I know that canada is a net exporter of oil.

I know, more broadly, that our dependence on these idiots in the middle east continues to shrink all the time.

As far as I'm concerned the saudis are not our friends, they are merely business partners. Let them deal with this shit and if they can't, then we can and we send them the bill. The middle east is probably pathologically incapable of ever being stable. As we gain independence from that region and its already pitiful economies with one-trick ponies (oil) worsen, they are likely to destabilize further.

BTw Iran today has seized another oil tanker.

EDIT: Okay USA became a net exporter of oil just last year: U.S. Becomes Net Exporter of Oil, Fuels for First Time in Decades

Look at the chart. We used to net import 13.5M barrels/day, holy shit. Now it's negative (depending on price of oil--I know domestic production goes up and down depending on barrel price).

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Wtf...

Iran seizes vessel in Gulf for allegedly smuggling diesel – reports

 

[FrankenCub]

Maybe I should get back to collecting used oil and tranny fluid for my truck to drink. Diesel is already expensive enough.

 

[Apeman]

Some think it might be Yemen getting back at Saudi Arabia for shitting on them

 

[holdover]

I don't believe for one minute that Iran attacked Saudi Arabia.

#1 Nothing to gain everything to lose.
#2 No follow up attack. No attacks on Military targets . The Iranians would have attacked the Saudi airfields to prevent a retaliatory strike
#3 no attacks on Saudi Naval bases or ship or tankers especially in the Gulf
#4 A full blown Iranian ground invasion of Saudi Arabia. would fail
#5 No path to victory

Were the missiles supplied by Iran? Sure. They have been supplying Houties in Yemen since the beginning of the Yeman war.

And of course

"Amid all the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world's energy supply. There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen," Pompeo continued, providing no evidence that Iran was behind the attacks.


And I love how the investigations of emails takes years or criminal investigations takes months and We already had the answer before the fires were even out .


Houthi rebels claim responsibility for attacks on Saudi oil facilities

 

[Blimey]

^^^

It's possible iran did do this. But why? Obviously IF the US gets involved, we could obliterate their military infrastructure over lunch. Wouldn't even be a training exercise.

So why? Well, either they aren't involved, or are dying for a fight for the tried and true reason that they are suffering political instability and desperately need to shore up domestic support by identifying an external enemy. Those damn Americans, bombing all our shit. See, we told you they are evil. Stick with us, ignore the sanctions, together we'll fight off these heathens.

As for Saudi, well F them they aren't our friends. They are business partners, and they have the third largest defense budget on the planet, so if they cannot do anything they are too stupid to deserve help anyway.

I want the US to stay out of this. Give satellite images if we have some spare cycles, but I hope the US does not launch any attack against Iran. If Iran is goading the US into attacking, it should take a lot more effort than this.

I actually do think Iran did this, or fully condoned/supported it, because it's inconsistent with their repeated aggression recently in Hormuz. They are undoubtedly seizing tankers, they are spoiling for a fight. The question is why they want to start a fight they can't win. And I believe it's for the same reason NK acts as it does. Set domestic people against a foreign aggressor to distract them.

 

[BDinPutnam]

You sorely underestimate Iran's capabilities, @Blimey.

 

[Blimey]

You sorely underestimate Iran's capabilities, @Blimey.

In which regard? btw i added another paragraph to my post after you hit like just in case you missed it hehe

 

[BDinPutnam]

I agree with most of your analysis except I dont think a US engagement with Iran would be finished by lunch time.

 

[prambo]

I agree with most of your analysis except I dont think a US engagement with Iran would be finished by lunch time.

@Blimey - agree with all but your estimate of Iran's capabilities. I'm betting there are sleeper cells all over the world. The terror campaign, IMHO, would be worse than a straight up war.

Agree with @BDinPutnam , this would be a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

But if the attacks escalate, the shit will hit the fan. Israel is the wild card - if they are threatened with invasion or obliteration, they will not hesitate to go full bore. "Never again" means just that to Israelis - and I don't fault them one bit for that.

 

[Blimey]

I agree with most of your analysis except I dont think a US engagement with Iran would be finished by lunch time.

Might take a long weekend.

They'd have no ports, military airports, etc. in no time at all.

As for an engagement, it would last longer. Maybe two decades like this cluster in Afghanistan has been because our government is fairly retarded, but this would be much like the gulf war: summary steamrolling of any resistance. if done by air it would neuter iran's ability to cause problems beyond its border in no time flat.

And, just like the iraq invasion, probably years of dicking around to absolutely nobody's benefit whatsoever. This is why I want the US to tell saudi it's their problem, we have enough oil, and piss off.

 

[BDinPutnam]

Maybe more than a long weekend.

Theres a serious risk of a wider conflict. And not just with "regional" actors.

Their air defenses are actually in fairly good shape, too. My understanding is they have S400's, plus god knows what North Korea gave them (by God I mean DIA).

And dont forget we had spent a decade plus degrading Iraqs air force and defenses before, during, and after the gulf war and then on prior to 2003.

 

[kev74]

Might take a long weekend.

They'd have no ports, military airports, etc. in no time at all.

As for an engagement, it would last longer. Maybe two decades like this cluster in Afghanistan has been because our government is fairly retarded, but this would be much like the gulf war: summary steamrolling of any resistance. if done by air it would neuter iran's ability to cause problems beyond its border in no time flat.

And, just like the iraq invasion, probably years of dicking around to absolutely nobody's benefit whatsoever. This is why I want the US to tell saudi it's their problem, we have enough oil, and piss off.

It sounds easy when you say it.

 

[Airborneguy]

My preferred gas station is actually down $.03 since monday. $2.47.

 

[holdover]

Something to consider,China is the largest oil importer in the world.China has been depreciating the yuan ,the us has been trying to get them to stop. Now they are forced to buy oil at high prices with a devalued yuan or strengthen thier yaun..This is really going to fuck them. I'm not pointing fingers, but it's something to consider in light of irans failure to complete a competent attack.

 

[ArmedCorgi]

Something to consider,China is the largest oil importer in the world.China has been depreciating the yuan ,the us has been trying to get them to stop. Now they are forced to buy oil at high prices with a devalued yuan or strengthen thier yaun..This is really going to fuck them. I'm not pointing fingers, but it's something to consider in light of irans failure to complete a competent attack.

So...you think we attacked Saudi Arabia with Iranian weapons as a means to stick it to China for manipulating their currency?

 

[BDinPutnam]

So...you think we attacked Saudi Arabia with Iranian weapons as a means to stick it to China for manipulating their currency?

You left out the part where we would have had to either have a team on the ground IN Iran, or we would have had to have recruited some Houthi rebels to do the dirty work for us. You know, those same Houthi rebels that we've been helping the House of Saud blow the shit out of.

 

[holdover]

No,but there are many angles to the game we need to look at.Like the houtis claiming responseibily for the attack. I live in a world where goverments lie.I live in a world, where the government started a war on false pretenses which lead to the death of 58000 Americans in Vietnam.or the lie of wmds and saddams connection and sponsor ship of al-quadia which lead to war . I live in a world where the head of the CIA laughs about lieing.i live in a world where the credibility of the government is for shit. So when I see you things which dont make any sense, I question it