I think the most probable outcome is a tense Cuban Missile Crisisesque standoff after which a very nervous China quietly demands NK to chill the fuck out. North Korea isn't going to do dick anyway. It's all sabre rattling, always has been. It's probably not good for Trump to call the bluff though. Asian types do not like losing face.Is the US secretly sabotaging North Korea's missile testing? Latest launches may have been hacked
I also came across this which was a very interesting story that one of Obama's minions must have leaked.
Fat boy is not giving up his nukes and missiles. This can only really end 2 ways. Him dead and the country in chaos, or a war. I don't see many other outcomes.
Asian types do not like losing face.
We won't do shit because military action against North Korea means war with China. That's bad. North Korea won't do shit because China doesn't want war with us either and won't let them. North Korea won't do shit because they know how thing would turn out if we invaded. The whole world knows that we have at least three times as many nukes as the rest of the world's nations combined. It's a gorilla beating it's chest behind the glass.This is a very true stereotype.
The way I look at it, is fat boy is delusional and paranoid. He knows that we took out Saddam and qadaffi because they did not have nukes. He sees nukes as his insurance to stay alive. Without nukes he thinks hes going to be regime changed. He doesn't look at the world rationally. The irony is if he doesn't give up his nukes he may be regime changed.
IMO China is the only way this ends without some sort of military intervention.
But sometimes they connectWe won't do shit because military action against North Korea means war with China. That's bad. North Korea won't do shit because China doesn't want war with us either and won't let them. North Korea won't do shit because they know how thing would turn out if we invaded. The whole world knows that we have at least three times as many nukes as the rest of the world's nations combined. It's a gorilla beating it's chest behind the glass.
Fuck yeah can't let them sitting around collecting rustI am okay with the USN sailing their ships where ever they can. FUNK!
But sometimes they connect
Hey lives in such a bubble he might actually believe his own BS.I think this guy could be crazy enough to go to war... Could see the Korean war version 2 all over again. How long they could fight is another matter.
Neither do Russian types I think.Asian types do not like losing face.
I don't think Russia cares much about what happens to North Korea since it is in China's sphere and given the break in relations between the two during the cold war. After the Syria attack though I'm sure Russia will seize on any opportunity to grandstand. Look Syria is one thing but the situation in Koran has been a delicate balancing act for over 60 years. Just going in to attack NK may very damn well ignite WW3. And maybe Russia and China would bury the old grudge and ally with one another. Things might very well get nuclear. At the very least I can't see us standing against such an alliance, not with today's weak ass society.Neither do Russian types I think.
As long as China doesn't put itself out there officially, it doesn't need to try and save face, so hopefully they don't make any public calls for NK support.
I think there is a good chance Trump attacks NK based on his words, the fact that NK has yet to curtail its nuclear programs despite two administrations trying that, and the fact he's already now attacked Syria.
Attacking NK is very difficult if the goal is to destroy its nuclear program. Obama let it go on too long already, as did Bush.
Neither do Russian types I think.
As long as China doesn't put itself out there officially, it doesn't need to try and save face, so hopefully they don't make any public calls for NK support.
I think there is a good chance Trump attacks NK based on his words, the fact that NK has yet to curtail its nuclear programs despite two administrations trying that, and the fact he's already now attacked Syria.
Attacking NK is very difficult if the goal is to destroy its nuclear program. Obama let it go on too long already, as did Bush.
The generals would have told him that the US would be destroyed by the best military in the world . .......Any other answer would be certain death .Hey lives in such a bubble he might actually believe his own BS.
How many of his generals who have told him how a battle w/ the US would go survived the telling ?
I worry even more that he may smuggle some nukes in here.I have to agree. Kim is so far off the rails, it's not unimaginable that he would take what nukes he has, place them in strategic places, and detonate them when the most damage to the US would be done.
Neither he nor his equally unbalanced father give/gave a rat's ass about their own people; how many would die as collateral damage is irrelevant to him.
The ringer is the PRC - if they decide to openly back NK as @Blimey said, this could turn into a very deadly shit show.
Why the cocaine though?I worry even more that he may smuggle some nukes in here.
A nuke in NY harbor hidden under a few KGs of cocaine is just as effective as one delivered by an ICBM.
More likely, in a lead-lined cargo container hidden among thousands of others on a freighter.I worry even more that he may smuggle some nukes in here.
A nuke in NY harbor hidden under a few KGs of cocaine is just as effective as one delivered by an ICBM.
He cant smuggle arms to his own country I cant imagine him getting something shipped to the East Coast
Im willing to wager most of the arms that did get through to him were tampered with on the way, Im sure every intelligence dept has assets working as inspectors at different ports
If you want to smuggle something in, get the experts to help.Why the cocaine though?
Why worry about the lead ?More likely, in a lead-lined cargo container hidden among thousands of others on a freighter.
An EMP is scary, but recoverable.I believe north korea's nukes are primarily for defensive purposes. As other have pointed out fatso took a look at sadam hussein and khadafi and decided it only made sense to accelerate his program before he becomes extinct.
However, the guy does appear to be a crazy bastard and reckless. It's conceivable he may do something wild like detonating one over the center of this country. The resulting EMP could cause untold amounts of long term damage. And it's possible he strikes a deal with the chinese to hide in their country while we nuke north korea. Then we would have to decide if going to war with china while our economy was crippled is worth it (or even feasible). There are a lot of bad/worse scenarios that people have to consider. I don't envy the guys in charge of north korean strategy.
Donald Rumsfeld had a greate quote - "weakness is a provocation." I think that is 100% correct. Thanks to obama, the world thinks the US will back out of any fight that requires a minimal commitment of lives. So Trump is going to be tested to see if he's just like obama or made of stronger stuff. Hopefully things calm down instead of spiraling out of control.