JaguarJaguarGolf
6.5 Creedmoor
China has the same goals that Japan had in the 1920’s-30’s and 40’s.
US and Iran conflict thread. ( merged threads)
- Thread starter TEOTWAWKI inc.
- Start date
Robin
.577 Tyrannosaur.
Seems that most of our so called allies only support that alliance when we, the USA, carry the financial burden for that pact, note the hew and cry when Trump demanded that our European 'allies' in that pact pay their fair share for NATO, as opposed to the USA paying most of the bills. But then, how would they afford all that socialism lite, in placating their populations.
Robin
Robin
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Nobody said friends, An allie is an allie, for whatever purposes. fucking your allie over ruins your credibility with other allies, thats a fact.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
How much is propaganda and how much is fact? Because China hasnt invaded anyone in a few hundred years.
spat
.950 JDJ
The singular for allies is ally.
And you are assuming that any countries are just "trusting" you if you are allies.
Remember, we have spies in the governent if every ally we have right now, and everyone knows it, and they all have spies here too.
And we interfere in their elections and they interfere in ours.
Nobody trusts anybody, there's no credibility to risk.
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spat
.950 JDJ
The communists currently in control invaded *China* in just the last century.
They also invaded
Vietnam
Korea
Tibet
Burma
India
And Russia
They're not *good* at invading their neighbors, but it's not for a lack of trying.
Seriously, what ridiculous sources do you get your history from ?
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
What does that have to do with an alliance? We were allied with the communists against Germany. So what?
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
History books, those are all basically border skirmishes, not full scale invasions But if you want to split hairs like you always do Ok.
spat
.950 JDJ
Yes, and absolutely everyone saw the cold war coming from a decade away.
That's just how that stuff works.
It's just like partnerships with mega corporations. They aren't friends, they don't trust each other. Everyone knows the partnership lasts just as long as it benefits everyone.
You don't owe them anything more than was contractually obligated.
With nations it's even less.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
The problem is if you enter into an agreement with another country promising support in case of war against a common enemy and when called on, you side with the other country, or give no support at all , Your treaty isnt worth the paper its printed on , Somehow you seem to miss the entire point .
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
I have no argument with that
Therein lies the issue, not only are you not fulling your obligations , you are supporting their enemy's. ( when referring to the original question of war between 2 allies)
in other words your obligations and treaty's are worth dogshit . If things get tough, your gone. Good luck making any more alliances at the expense of their safety. You have also emboldened thier enemys to attack if they realize Your going to cut and run if the cost is to high.
What happened to:
The famous quote, "We shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty," JFK ????
Except if we dont want to? WTF???
You adhere to the Adolph Hitler foreign policy theory.
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spat
.950 JDJ
JFK wasn't wrong.
But what when that obligation doesn't comport with the "success of liberty" ?
Are you arguing that we should have opened a can of whup-ass on Russia in eastern Ukraine to honor our Budapest memorandum obligations ?
I thought you were of the opposite opinion there ?
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Well as far as honoring our agreements with the Budapest memorandum We did. It was a bad policy that nearly caused a nuclear war .
Which brings me to my original intent of the question , A war between Turkey and Israel , Because now the waters start to get muddy, We have obligations to both countries, and the battle ground is in Syria in which neither country is really attacked or invaded , Isreal claims the right of national security while Turkey claims to liberate a neighbor, doesn't really matter , but whats important is that both sides are our a Allie's .
The situation is that Turkey intends on liberating Syria , and Israel intends on taking it (or large parts of it ) for security reasons A war is becoming inevitable at some point.
And if I may topspin your question right back at you, How do you support Israel 's proclamation that national security, necessitates the need to seize lands to protect themselves while condemning Russia for the same thing?
In my opinion, in both cases it better we sit it out. Its like everytime the neighbors argue We run over there and stick out noses in the middle of it expecting everything to be fine . Sooner or later our neighbors are going to hate us
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
I could be wrong, but I dont think it will happen. Primarily because it doesn't need to happen, the Iranians will crack under pressure. Oil would jump to $300 a barrel enriching Russia , and hurting the EU and US economy's , nobody really wants that. Iran doesnt want to get leveled so they dont want it either, which leaves the opening for a deal to be made. In order to carry any weight a real threat of imminent war must be made to be viable , and I dont think Trump is bluffing and neither does Iran. Especially after seeing the Chinese and Russian anti ship missiles they have, are not preforming as advertised. It could /would happen if Iran doesn't come to the table. Its very possible. but I think unnecessary, because Iran will ""see the light"" when the clock winds down. The US is setting the stage for an attack there is no doubt about it , and it wants Iran to know it .
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
TRUMP ENVOY WITKOFF: IRAN TALKS “POSITIVE & CONSTRUCTIVE,” NEXT ROUND SET FOR APRIL 19 The talks, held in Oman, centered on nuclear issues and sanctions relief—and signal a potential breakthrough in quiet diplomacy. Source: NBC
spat
.950 JDJ
We gave Ukraine guarantees that we would defend their sovereignty in exchange for giving up their nuclear weapons.
Similar guarantees that they would have as a full fledged NATO member.
Bet they really wished they'd kept the nukes.
As for your hypothetical Isreal and Turkeys scenario, I don't think we have any more obligation to either of them at that point than we did to Ukraine. In true American style, I expect we'd make a killing selling weapons to both of them.
As for your theory about Isreal invading Syria being analogous to the Russia Ukraine situation, it's not.
If the Ukrainian government had collapsed and eastern Ukraine had fallen into anarchy, *then* it would be a valid comparison.
I'm not even sure you can call it an invasion at that point. Without a functioning government, Syria isn't anyone's sovereign territory.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
The government may be gone, but the Syrian people still live there , Me thinks they are going to be very resentful about that. One day in the future they will turn on thier occupiers
But who are you kidding, We both know Turkey will be thrown out of NATO and we will back Israel 100%
But who are you kidding, We both know Turkey will be thrown out of NATO and we will back Israel 100%
spat
.950 JDJ
Or, maybe they'll find that Isreal treats it's citizens better than Assad did and like it.
There are lots of Arabs living in Isreal who like it.
Or, maybe the government that forms in the rest of Syria won't be a complete piece of shit and Isreal will give the land back, like they did to Egypt and the other Arabs after the war.
Or maybe the people living in that part if Syria will be such shitweasels that Syria won't take them back and Isreal will be stuck with another chunk of "palestine" that they never wanted.
There are lots of possibilities.
But, the one thing that you *can* say is that those parts of Syria were conducting acts of war against Isreal, and they would have been perfectly legitimate to declare a war over it and invade.
Ukraine did nothing to Russia prior to the invasion except act too friendly with the west.
Maybe NATO should invade Belarus for acting too friendly with Russia ? That's how that works now, right ?
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Come onnn man, Isreal had been bombing them scince the Arab spring up rising, Syria almost fell to the Jihadis earlier, they were fighting a civil war and in no shape to even consider an attack on Isreal , The syrians took it on the chin because they couldn't even fight back
Im sure they will forget all about being bombed by Isreal for the last ten years
Or, maybe they'll find that Isreal treats it's citizens better than Assad did and like it.
As long as Isreal has a border they will have an enemy. Been like that from day 1
spat
.950 JDJ
Rockets have been flying from Syria into Isreali cities consistently for decades.
That's an act of war no matter how you cut it.
Either the people launching the rockets had a wink-and-a-nod approval from the Syrian government, or the Syrian government was just incapable of stopping them. It doesn’t really matter either way.
How long do you suppose we would put up with Mexican cartels launching missiles into our border cities before we did something about it ?
If the Syrian (or Mexican) government wasn't capable of stopping them, then they're not really in control of that territory anyway.
At that point, you're not even really invading Syria, you're invading Hezbollahistan (or Cartelistan).
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Ummm no they havent.,
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
The problem is you never hear of isreali strikes in Syria,, it's not widely reported,but you absolutely do hear about Syrian counter strikes on. Isreal. The narrative e is controlled.
Have you ever heard of the greater isreal project? It's not on CNN so probably not
Have you ever heard of the greater isreal project? It's not on CNN so probably not
A lot of RUMINT out now that it might be going down in the near future.
Stay frosty. Be alert for sleeper cells if anything major pops off
Stay frosty. Be alert for sleeper cells if anything major pops off
US is evacuating all non essential personnel from Embassies in the middle east
For those who haven't seen any news and have been wrapped up in other events (riots etc) the situation with Iran has really escalated. There's a lot of rumors out there an attack might be imminent.
Will be released later today
www.newsweek.com
www.cbsnews.com
Just thought it's worth sharing and keeping an eye on.
Will be released later today
Five signs war with Iran could be imminent
Rising tensions over Iran's nuclear program have escalated amid diplomatic breakdowns, military preparations, and threats of conflict across the Middle East.
www.newsweek.com
Possibility of Israeli strike on Iran puts Americans in Mideast on alert as Iran vows to boost nuclear program
With Israel apparently poised to attack Iran, the U.S. government warns staff in Israel to restrict travel and clears service members' families across the Mideast to evacuate.
www.cbsnews.com
Just thought it's worth sharing and keeping an eye on.
JaguarJaguarGolf
6.5 Creedmoor
I read somewhere recently:
Iran was within 2 weeks of the ability to build 6 nuclear weapons.
I've also seen several postings about attacks on 4th of July weekend, but this coming weekend has quite a few protests planned
Iran was within 2 weeks of the ability to build 6 nuclear weapons.
I've also seen several postings about attacks on 4th of July weekend, but this coming weekend has quite a few protests planned
Trump admits Israel strike on Iran ‘could very well happen’ soon
“I don’t want to say imminent,” Trump said of the possibility of an Israeli attack, “but it looks like it’s something that could very well happen.
nypost.com
Damn... shit or get off the fcking pot.
Stop talking about what nay happen.... just do it.
Stop talking about what nay happen.... just do it.