Things are heating up in the Donbass

spat

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holdover said:
It would look like a global nuclear war . First off Russia has more nukes than we do. They can devastate the entire country withen hours. #2 We are a air and maritime power, not a major land power. While it may be true we have a better trained army , Its difficult to replace the losses of highly trained experienced people . #3 the logistical problems are enormous. feeding an army would require 1-2 million meals a day , just for example. #4 The Chinese are not going to be real keen on the Idea of Nato on their border either. They would be forced to send troops to help stop the invaders, #5 nobody in thier right mind would start WW3 over Ukraine. its ridiculous on its face, Its not even an option , nobody is going to do it
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China would send troops alright.

Right into Russia to grab as much territory as they could while the getting was good.

Russia *may* have more warheads, but they do not have effective working delivery mechanisms for more than a few hundred of them.

I would expect any war would start with conventional strikes disabling their ICBMs and their submarines would be sunk before they got word there *was* a war.

I don't think I need to explain why attempting to use bombers against NATO would be an utter failure.

This isn't the 1980s. Russia doesn't have a credible second strike capability anymore.


And I think you'll find that the US military is *by far* the most powerful land warfare machine in all of human history, and we absolutely have the logistics to support that invasion.

But, we wouldn't need it. Ukraine has fought Russia to a standstill for *years* with little more than hand me down scraps from NATO. With NATO air support they could walk into Moscow without any assistance.
 
Mosinitis

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Lavrov made a good case why EU riffraff should be kept away from the negotiation table as far as possible. He brought up a number of examples when EU leaders negotiated and signed agreements on Ukraine they didn't intended to keep and how this led to further escalation. Comparing their style to classic Gypsy con artists. A lot of Lavrov eloquence is lost in the translation.
 
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holdover

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spat said:
China would send troops alright.

Right into Russia to grab as much territory as they could while the getting was good.

Russia *may* have more warheads, but they do not have effective working delivery mechanisms for more than a few hundred of them.

I would expect any war would start with conventional strikes disabling their ICBMs and their submarines would be sunk before they got word there *was* a war.

I don't think I need to explain why attempting to use bombers against NATO would be an utter failure.

This isn't the 1980s. Russia doesn't have a credible second strike capability anymore.


And I think you'll find that the US military is *by far* the most powerful land warfare machine in all of human history, and we absolutely have the logistics to support that invasion.

But, we wouldn't need it. Ukraine has fought Russia to a standstill for *years* with little more than hand me down scraps from NATO. With NATO air support they could walk into Moscow without any assistance.
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You do know they have nuclear capable subs off our coast right now right? Even one would cripple the US , so even if you dont get em all in one shot , game over. same for land based missles , they have thousands of them , trying to knock them out in one strike is a bit ambitious

You assume NATO air superiority on day one, thats not how its going to work , The russians have the best anti air missiles in the world bar none. they had to put their time money and scientists into it because even the Russians knew they didnt have the numbers to beat the west and had to compensate, The russian airforce wont come out and fight as you expect it would, they will stay behind a wall of air defense systems and strikes from there. it took a month to degrade the Iraqi air defense , it would take far longer with Russia


Im not sure your aware of the long range anti ship capability of the Russians , Logistics is not a for gone conclusion, This isnt Iraq, where we had a 6 month build up with no interference.

Let me say this, unit to unit The Americans outclass the Russians , as did the French German and Ukrainian army's the Russians have the home field advantage of short supply lines . There are limitations on our capabilities you know.
 
spat

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holdover said:
You do know they have nuclear capable subs off our coast right now right? Even one would cripple the US , so even if you dont get em all in one shot , game over. same for land based missles , they have thousands of them , trying to knock them out in one strike is a bit ambitious

You assume NATO air superiority on day one, thats not how its going to work , The russians have the best anti air missiles in the world bar none. they had to put their time money and scientists into it because even the Russians knew they didnt have the numbers to beat the west and had to compensate, The russian airforce wont come out and fight as you expect it would, they will stay behind a wall of air defense systems and strikes from there. it took a month to degrade the Iraqi air defense , it would take far longer with Russia


Im not sure your aware of the long range anti ship capability of the Russians , Logistics is not a for gone conclusion, This isnt Iraq, where we had a 6 month build up with no interference.

Let me say this, unit to unit The Americans outclass the Russians , as did the French German and Ukrainian army's the Russians have the home field advantage of short supply lines . There are limitations on our capabilities you know.
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The Russian subs would be sunk within minutes of the order being given by the white house.

Every one of them has a us attack sub following it every minute it's out from port.

If we were getting close to an actual war, they would probably each have 3.

The Russians have 11 ballistic missile submarines total. Typically only 1/3rd can be at sea at a time, and that's with US levels of maintainance.

We have 53 attack submarines to follow them. You do the math.


As for logistics, we had 6 months to build up for Desert Storm. We've spent 70 years preparing to fight Russia in Europe.

Most of the stuff for desert storm *came* from Europe.

And they only have 326 ICBMs, not thousands.

And while we might not have complete air supremacy on day one, conventional strike missions on every ICBM launch site would be the top priority, and casualties would be considered acceptable to eliminate them.

We may not be able to send in B52s on day one until the SEAD mission is complete, but B2s and F35s will absolutely eliminate those ICBMs.

I'm not sure what you think they're going to hide behind with their air defense.
 
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tirwin1

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The europeans will probably bitch and complain if any peace deal is made. However, there's not a thing they can do about it and its their own damn fault. The only weapon they have is the hot air coming out of their politician's mouths.

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spat

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tirwin1 said:
The europeans will probably bitch and complain if any peace deal is made. However, there's not a thing they can do about it and its their own damn fault. The only weapon they have is the hot air coming out of their politician's mouths.

View attachment 257550
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Western Europe pretending they're really part of NATO is like groupies pretending they're part of the band.

You may ride on the tour bus, but when it's time to go on stage you don't have a part to play.
 
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Kabuki theater, will make a deal. Just who gets how much, U.S. going for raw minerals, Russia ? food production and slave labor.
 
Mosinitis

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There will be no NATO troops in Ukraine. Not as a part of NATO, not as part of EU army, not as peace keepers, not as traveling circus. You don't plan long range missile attacks on Russian cities and then show up as peace keepers. Russians already stated that any such forces arriving in Ukraine will be made a priority target.
 
Drinkthekoolaid

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GOPerfect said:
Something that so many do not understand about the Russian people, I have said this before.... The Russians are so very different than most other peoples. This heavy price, they are okay with the cost.
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To me as an outsider looking in, absorbing massive war casualties "for the cause" seems to be an understood, accepted and embraced part of their culture, identity and heritage that they are proud of being a part of their history and understand it.

My sister in law (was born in russia) so I talk with her and her brother and their side of the family every once in awhile and learn new things.

Just my ignorant .02 cents as I see it.
 
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spat said:
And you don't think Trump has seen that game 1000 times before ?

He'll recognize it before they've left the room for the first time.

I doubt he's going to be pleased being jerked around like that.
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What do you think Putin is doing right now? Trump is saying it can end in weeks. Putin is just buying time .
 
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Mosinitis

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Thousands of Ukrainian elite troops are about to be encircled in Kursk region. Russia used this ill conceived incursion as a trap for elite Ukrainian forces and Western supplied armor, which was distroyed on daily basis by Russian advanced optical fiber drones and artillery.


www.theguardian.com

Ukraine war briefing: Thousands of Kyiv’s troops in Kursk nearly surrounded by Russian forces – report

Reuters says open source maps show Ukrainian situation in Russian region has deteriorated sharply in recent days after Moscow’s counteroffensive. What we know on day 1,109
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

 
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Putin made some great points.

I like what he said about Trump. Notice he smiled when he talked about Trump. Putin likes Trump.
 
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holdover

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French forgien legion, Polish and British mercenarys are also trapped in the Kursk salient, On Russian soil. Standing orders are to execute any foreign mercenaries. but I believe they will make an exception in this case , If not, they will be become European fertilizer.
 
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The situation in Kursk reached a decision point over the last 24 hours. Ukrainian forces around Sudzha have two roads connecting them to home. The main supply route (1) has been under Russian fire for a while now, and they've been leaning on the secondary route (2).

A Russian attack out of Kurilovka managed to break through to this secondary road. There are reports that Russian troops reached the Ukrainian border, which would mean the road is physically blocked and not just under fire control. The advance has been confirmed by Ukrainian mappers like DeepState.

The AFU either needs to sort itself out to immediately withdraw from Kursk or else counterattack and attempt to unblock the road. They're withdrawing from Malaya Loknya on the northern tip of the salient, but whether this portends a general abandonment of Kursk remains to be seen.

Given the dense Russian fires on the roads out over the past few weeks, Ukrainian withdrawal would likely entail abandoning or losing lots of equipment. Very difficult to imagine them squeezing out of the bottleneck in good order.
 
Drinkthekoolaid

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holdover said:
The situation in Kursk reached a decision point over the last 24 hours. Ukrainian forces around Sudzha have two roads connecting them to home. The main supply route (1) has been under Russian fire for a while now, and they've been leaning on the secondary route (2).

A Russian attack out of Kurilovka managed to break through to this secondary road. There are reports that Russian troops reached the Ukrainian border, which would mean the road is physically blocked and not just under fire control. The advance has been confirmed by Ukrainian mappers like DeepState.

The AFU either needs to sort itself out to immediately withdraw from Kursk or else counterattack and attempt to unblock the road. They're withdrawing from Malaya Loknya on the northern tip of the salient, but whether this portends a general abandonment of Kursk remains to be seen.

Given the dense Russian fires on the roads out over the past few weeks, Ukrainian withdrawal would likely entail abandoning or losing lots of equipment. Very difficult to imagine them squeezing out of the bottleneck in good order.
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They're screwed.

I feel like what is occurring has so many parallels to the WW2 eastern front. It was common for large groups to be fully encircled in a pocket and completely ground down and destroyed. You can't hold out for long without resupply and as your wounded start to accumulate and you lose your combat strength.
 
MothMan

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