The stock market is tanking +/- 2 of 2020. Be prepared.
Here's how it's going to happen...
- Thread starter Curmudgeon
- Start date
Is that a prediction or gut feeling or any other info to support it?
Im not being snarky just curious
Curmudgeon
.308 Win
@masterswimmer . I do have money in the market. Honestly, I hope I'm wrong.
Yeah, many presidents have added to the national debt however its growth is now exponential and, imo, out of control. I dont see it being reeled back in.
So yeah, while I still invest in the markets, I have no expectation of seeing that money again. Maybe I'll get lucky. Who knows. As far as ETF's and REIT's go - hell to the nope.
I'm not suggesting people change their plans and strategies beyond stocking up on tangible sooner rather than later.
An somewhat-related analogy - when I was a kid every August my dad used to say, "mark my words, this year the Bill's are going to the Super Bowl." The first year he stopped saying it, they went to the Super Bowl. Hopefully by calling it in this instance it never happens. Just the opinion of one curmudgeon.
Yeah, many presidents have added to the national debt however its growth is now exponential and, imo, out of control. I dont see it being reeled back in.
So yeah, while I still invest in the markets, I have no expectation of seeing that money again. Maybe I'll get lucky. Who knows. As far as ETF's and REIT's go - hell to the nope.
I'm not suggesting people change their plans and strategies beyond stocking up on tangible sooner rather than later.
An somewhat-related analogy - when I was a kid every August my dad used to say, "mark my words, this year the Bill's are going to the Super Bowl." The first year he stopped saying it, they went to the Super Bowl. Hopefully by calling it in this instance it never happens. Just the opinion of one curmudgeon.
Curmudgeon
.308 Win
Good points. And maybe HOW it happens is irrelevant. WHEN it happens is the key.
Catskillkid
.450/400 Nitro Ex
I'm stocking up (again) on precious metals (namely lead in the form of boolits). And for the record, the Bills are going to the Super Bowl this year. You saw it here first!
Co-workers last job they spent millions on research in the stock market try to turn 300 million into a billion in a couple of years. That is what all the Havard people came up with.
He plans on moving his money at the end of next year to something more stable.
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Catskillkid
.450/400 Nitro Ex
I'll just add that my Capital One 360 Money Market Account just raised its interest rate. Good for me at the moment!
Curmudgeon
.308 Win
@masterswimmer
One other thought. You said:
"With trillions of dollars invested in retirement funds and automatic contributions continuing to flow into the market, corrections will happen."
I see this as one of the most significant problems. Many pensions are underfunded and a lot of folks just expect them to be there. Fools errand IMO.
One other thought. You said:
"With trillions of dollars invested in retirement funds and automatic contributions continuing to flow into the market, corrections will happen."
I see this as one of the most significant problems. Many pensions are underfunded and a lot of folks just expect them to be there. Fools errand IMO.
I’m just gonna be blind about this and go back to my bubble with @Darth
It's been a rough month for the market
We've already had smaller corrections this year. I'm wondering if this is a larger correction or the start of something more.
masterswimmer
.450/400 Nitro Ex
Just this month I've dumped big funds into the market on the dip. Will it go down more? Very very possible. I'll dump more cash in as it keeps falling.
meketrefe
.450/400 Nitro Ex
your forecast presents some serious doubts...
If the USD looses status what currency will replace it?
Many countries will not support it because their current investments are in US dollars.
Even if it looses status that might go 180 and trigger a crisis but a resurgence in manufacturing. Afterr all we have the resources,
we just need to buy some machines and/or retool. This would make sense vs. paying more for imports from a currency that
has been de valuated.
Of course many things can go wrong. In wwii there were shortages of everything and people had to buy bonds to support the war effort
but was at those times of scarcity and uncertainty when people came together, perhaps the opposite reaction to what some other expected.
Of course that generation of people were hardworking and made many sacrifices, not sure we have that anymore.
But perhaps if you show them how everything could be, like living in Afghanistan for a few days, that could change their mind set.
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Acer-m14
20×102mm Vulcan
whats Lead up to ? .. i just got gifted a bar bigger then a normal iron sash weight for a old window .. a good 20 lbs or more ..
Chicken Shoot
.45 acp
Curmudgeon
.308 Win
Blimey
.450/400 Nitro Ex
But if not being world reserve meant end of the economy every other country wouldn't have one.
Our debt to gdp is closing in on 100% last I checked. Japan's is over 200%, most western countries are close to 100% give or take. It looks like Russia's is low and china is around 50%. In other words our debt is awful but so is everybody else's.
I do think we'll have another massive stock market crash, but I think everybody believes that. The wise people don't try and guess when (unless they are so wise they actually know). Stocks have gotten trashed lately and I keep pumping money into equities. I have a long time span to retirement so I'm not concerned. As masterswimmer pointed out the worst thing to do is pull money out. We have a century or more now evidence that putting money into US stocks year after year, blindly, gives a pretty good long term return.
masterswimmer
.450/400 Nitro Ex
FIFY.
That's a guaranty. We'll have crashes periodically as long as we have equity markets. How you position yourself before, during and after the crash will determine how you weather the storm.
NO!
the US is the world Market place, if our economy fails then so do all.
If we cant buy, they cant sell.
Blimey
.450/400 Nitro Ex
Against butter judgement I listened to some doomsayers in 2008 and made a few "let's get ahead of this" moves which in retrospect cost me a bit of money. Lots of people thought were were months away from eating babies and trapping rats for sustenance. For the most part though I just invested the recommended ~15% of my paycheck into my 401k, primarily in stocks, even when the market was crap and falling, and the market return since then has been remarkable. I'm happy that crash happened early on in my investing career because I have a different view of it all now. I've lost thousands this week in my 401k and I just look at it in mild interest. If the market really does explode down to 20-30% from its peak then the only thing I'll do is pull everything I have in bonds back into the market, because I really believe in it long term (and yes I realize this is also its own version of playing the market).
Blimey
.450/400 Nitro Ex
People need to get this. If we shut down 100% of trade with China, after the hump we'd be back to paying $1000 for a TV instead of $300, but China would be back to living in huts. That's a simplified view, but they need us more than we need them.
masterswimmer
.450/400 Nitro Ex
Back in '08 my portfolio dropped about 45%. So a 20-30% drop is child's play. The biggest concern is the length of time for recovery and your time till retirement, and needing to withdraw for survival.
We should have NYGF investing thread. I'm pretty behind in my investing. I'm 35 and didn't really start my career/investing until 5 years ago. I'm a numbers guy (engineer) and now how this has crippled me from starting out in my 20's.
I have been kicking around the idea of about getting some outside advice, because the guy that runs the company 401K doesn't seem to want to talk to me. What I really don't like is that I'm down for the year. Lets face it up until last month there should have been gains, but maybe that's a wrong assumption.
I have been kicking around the idea of about getting some outside advice, because the guy that runs the company 401K doesn't seem to want to talk to me. What I really don't like is that I'm down for the year. Lets face it up until last month there should have been gains, but maybe that's a wrong assumption.
Phazer
.450/400 Nitro Ex
I once had a geography teacher that explained why the U.S. is, and will remain, the place for investors throughout the world: The rule of law.
In many places in the world, property rights are not secure. You may get great tax breaks to build a factory in another country. Especially, in "third world" countries. But, you don't know if the government there will nationalize your assets and seize your property on a whim.
As long as we remain a nation firmly rooted in the rule of law, we should be fine. If the Liberal Progressives make serious inroads towards their end game of Communism, where private property is abolished, we may see that change.
In many places in the world, property rights are not secure. You may get great tax breaks to build a factory in another country. Especially, in "third world" countries. But, you don't know if the government there will nationalize your assets and seize your property on a whim.
As long as we remain a nation firmly rooted in the rule of law, we should be fine. If the Liberal Progressives make serious inroads towards their end game of Communism, where private property is abolished, we may see that change.
Robin
.577 Tyrannosaur.
Curmudgeon
.308 Win
I would say it's more rule by law than rule of law.