holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Of course, but it demonstrates the predicament China is faceing
Looming north korean threat
- Thread starter Drinkthekoolaid
- Start date
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
No, they know Kim is a nut job. they wouldn't fight for him , but they would fight to keep their buffer zone and lil Kim knows that.
spat
.700 Nitro Express
A nuke in a UPS package?
spat
.700 Nitro Express
With N Korea gone, we wouldn't have a reason to need us troops in S Korea (not so much anyway).
I could see a backdoor deal where we agree to pull all us troops off the peninsula within 1 year of Kim being out of power or something to keep China and Russia placated.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
That would be great, but would the Chineese buy that?, and after spending all that blood and treasure The US is going to just hand over a major strategic piece of territory? I think they would find ten ways to midnight to stall any withdrawal. Its not like the US has great credibility .
I think the best thing for all parties is to strike the North with a massive bombing campaign like desert storm , defend the south with airpower and ground troops. and possibly allow the south to invade the north when the defenses are degraded enough .So long as NATO ground forces do not invade the North we have a good shot at avoiding a major conflict with China or Russia or both.Besides we don't really have the man power to waste in a ground war against China.
What's so infuriating about this situation is that it was totally avoidable. Its been like watching a slow motion train wreck. Anyone can see it coming, it's hardly an unexpected surprise.
Yet,
Here we are.
We can thank clinton, W, and Obama for all kicking the can down the road and now we are left with bad options and worse options.
Absolute best case scenario is a few thousand people mostly NK die in a limited scenario of regime change and targeted strikes on nuclear infrastructure. Worst case scenario is casualties count up to tens of millions dying. The death toll would be horrific if it spirals out of control and nukes start detonating.
Yet,
Here we are.
We can thank clinton, W, and Obama for all kicking the can down the road and now we are left with bad options and worse options.
Absolute best case scenario is a few thousand people mostly NK die in a limited scenario of regime change and targeted strikes on nuclear infrastructure. Worst case scenario is casualties count up to tens of millions dying. The death toll would be horrific if it spirals out of control and nukes start detonating.
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holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Kicking the can down the road is exactly what was done for a long time. Nobody wanted to deal with it, everybodywas thinking about the next election and their legacy .Now the American empire is at a crossroad. If we allow NK and Iran to have nukes it will diminish American power around the globe. If we fail it will diminish American power around the globe. If we are successful It will buy us another 50 years .
Sometimes I wonder if the US wants to have a conflict with China ,Having a conflict with them would erase all debts and reboost the economy and the dollar.
Sometimes I wonder if the US wants to have a conflict with China ,Having a conflict with them would erase all debts and reboost the economy and the dollar.
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Snappo
6.5 Creedmoor
Didn't that happen in 24? A football stadium got melted? Or was that in a movie - maybe with Morgan Freeman?
Honestly, if Iran and NK can't figure out missile technology; they can build nukes into sailboats or old research vessels and quietly detonated them all in harbors like Boston and NYC before the harbor master comes on board to inspect you. NK could do that tomorrow morning, I assume. Once they got past that strait between Japan and North Luzon, it seems like it would be smooth sailing. Obviously they'd have to be seriously hard core sailors to go around Cape Town or head east to San Francisco and LA, but in a 100+ foot boat with a good crew you could go anywhere and those are relatively cheap. A 180 foot Barquetine with steel hull and all self furling sails and single diesel will run about $2M. And old research vessels often go for a song and a dance and can hold dozens of nukes. Then when you get near the harbor you take a dinghy to shore, leave the boat buoy'ed a mile out, and detonate via cellular or some other band once you were inland by a few miles and safe. Does the Red Sea connect to the Mediterranean Sea? If so that would be even easier and make all of Europe potential targets. Countries better start taking NK and Iran seriously. Stuff could get real in a hurry in the next few years.
spat
.700 Nitro Express
They have diesel subs. I wonder what the official US reaction would be if one was 100 miles off the Virginia shore.
I always remember this example...this was only caught by pure chance because they were looking for drugs.
N Korean ship seized with Cuban weapons returns to Cuba - BBC News
Nk clearly has plenty of short and medium range missiles they could easily load a road mobile launcher on a cargo ship and launch it off our coast. They could either use a conventional missile delivery or use it for an EMP.
We can't think traditionally with NK. they know they have no chance going toe to toe with us. They will try unconventional sneaky things to exploit our weaknesses.
If a wimp was going to fight the playground bully he would try to throw sand in his eyes and then kick him in the balls.
I have no clue on what their realistic range would be or if NK has any capability to refuel at sea?
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
That's a problem. Whats worse is you cant be sure you knocked em all out,
Snappo
6.5 Creedmoor
The smaller the ship, the less noticeable it is. I think it would be wiser to go with a 100' sailboat than a 900 foot cargo ship. Or even a 150' research vessel from the 1980s. Ultimately you want folks to think you are a small university or just some group of sailing buddies doing a bucket list trip. I'm still not terrified about EMP's. Most electronics nowadays have transorb arrays. We put them in every mother board and daughter board on military radar back in my previous life with United Technologies. Every power plant is a giant Farraday cage, as are our metal barns and whatnot. Even a microwave oven is a Farraday cage. Yeah some vehicles might be fairly fucked; but that's about it. Your electricity will be fine; beyond perhaps some power transformers. But sub stations are all Farraday cages. You might be out of electricity for a few weeks - barely long enough for the inner city minorities to band together and venture out of their cement jungles.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
North Korea actually has 75 subs , probably less than 4-5 good ones , but still, a lot to worry about.
Total Submarine Strength by Country
Total Submarine Strength by Country
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Snappo
6.5 Creedmoor
Well if my stupid little Cierra 2855 can go 900 miles while on plane; I can only assume even a 100 foot sailboat with a little Volvo or Yanmar diesel can get around the planet with zero problems. And an old used research vessel in that 150' to 200' range will go around the earth multiple times while holding a few dozen nukes in the hold. Or get one of those 80' or so fishing boats from the movie Perfect Storm. Those things will go anywhere for months on end. You can buy these used in Japan all day long:
Fish Collecting Vessel 2308
Apparently the Chinese are taking the possibility of a military clash seriously.
China reportedly preps for crisis along border with North Korea
I would be curious to know what trump and Xi talked about. Did trump give Xi a deadline that if China doesn't take care of NK that we will?
These sound like pretty serious and extensive fortifications and troop deployments.
Perhaps Xi knows trump will attack NK and they are wary of US troops being so close
China reportedly preps for crisis along border with North Korea
I would be curious to know what trump and Xi talked about. Did trump give Xi a deadline that if China doesn't take care of NK that we will?
These sound like pretty serious and extensive fortifications and troop deployments.
Perhaps Xi knows trump will attack NK and they are wary of US troops being so close
Arjuna
.338 Win Mag
North Korea really has a way with words
Blimey
.450/400 Nitro Ex
It didn't feel right "liking" your post.
Are vessels tracked closely across oceans? Realistically can a vessel leave port in NK and assume it will get "lost" on the way to the US without satellite tracking or other forms of tracking so that it can pop a bomb off in san francisco bay?
ArmedCorgi
.475 A&M Magnum
I wonder how fast you could build a house with a nuclear hammer?
Good questions. I would guess the smaller the vessel the more likely it would "slip through the cracks"
This story always sticks out to me
N Korean ship seized with Cuban weapons returns to Cuba - BBC News
And here's just one of their freighters well documented illegal smuggling history
Chong Chon Gang - Wikipedia
I'm sure these are tracked to some degree just no idea how well they are....
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Im beginning to wonder if the Chinese troop buildup is for NATO and not NK. If the Chinese jumped in on our side this will be a walk in the park for the US. If they jump in on NK side is could be Nasty as hell . they have a lot of reasons to do either.But remember, NK can hit them with nukes instead . The Chinese are in a hard spot.
Snappo
6.5 Creedmoor
Yes. Wave sizes and satellite capability limit the ability to see vessels. That's why we can't seem to kill those evil Somali Pirates that steal boats and ships. My insurance (US Boat) won't let me take my 32' to Florida. You have to stop at Georgia. They Coast Guard can't prevent piracy in boats under a few hundred feet; and the Mexican cartels steal your boat, kills you, and use the boat to run drugs. Supposedly the Mediterranean is just as bad. If you are under a few hundred feet you can pretty much go anywhere on earth unnoticed until you reach shore and check in with harbor patrol and pay your fee to tie off to a bouy.
Snappo
6.5 Creedmoor
Do those morons know our active and reserve arsenals sit at almost 7,000 ballistic missiles
and an undisclosed amount of tactical nukes for theatre warfare on MLRS systems? Our small tactical nukes are in the many thousands. We even elected not to destroy those old Davy Crockett bazooka fired nukes. It wasn't in SALT or START. These folks are neophytes.
ArmedCorgi
.475 A&M Magnum
The Chinese are a nuclear power as well. I don't think NK would nuke them. It would be at their own peril.
ArmedCorgi
.475 A&M Magnum
I'll also add I don't think China's troop build up is benevolent to us. I think it's to serve as border control for any influx of refugees should war start and to serve as a deterrent and reminder to us about the last time they crossed that border.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
That's the official version, But Im a little skeptical,
Blimey
.450/400 Nitro Ex
I guess NK must be fairly aware of this, which is why their smack talk is so damn impressive.
Snappo
6.5 Creedmoor
You'd think so; but we have about 50x as many nuclear weapons as China and 5x their Air Force. We also have a Navy that is 15x their size. And yet NK seeks to keep poking us. I can only think they are absolutely moronic; and perhaps thinking they can do like The Mouse That Roared. Remember that old B&W movie where some nothing country in financial straits declares war so we can take them over and give them all the luxuries of being an American protectorate?