Things are heating up in the Donbass

[spat]

If We attack the Russian military, Yeah, they are going to see it as a threat. I really dont know anyone that would disagree with that


Thats nonsense, There are so many logistical problems with that. We bombed Iraq and Vietnam into the stone age , it didnt work. You know why We couldn't defeat the insurgency's? , Because We never had the man power to secure it , thats why the insurgency thrived.

We didnt have the man power to secure Vietnam or Iraq, What do you think is going to Happen in Russia? At best the Us can marshall 2-3 million men. thats no where near what would be required in Russia


Thats whats holding us back from invading Iran, We cant secure it. We are a naval and airpower, Russia is a land power.

We have better planes, better tanks, Better training better leadership Better doctrine than the Russians Just like Germany had . Germany invaded Russia with 6 million men, 100 divisions , and Russia bled them white

Certainly they would see an attack as a threat. But you don't nuke everyone who is a threat. Would they see it as an *existential* threat ?

Why would they ?

As for Vietnam, etc, we *did* bomb them into the stone age quite easily.

Occupying territory in the face of a determined insurgency is very hard.

Eliminating your opponents ability to fight as anything but an insurgency is not. You just need to keep the diplomats and politicians well away from the decision making.

You are making the same mistake that Putin is. The Soviet Union bled Germany, dry. 2024 Russia is not the 1942 Soviet union.

We have no intention of occupying Russian territory. Why would anyone want Russian territory ? If we simply make the goal eliminating the Russian military in Ukraine, we don't need to even step foot in Russia.

Russia can't remotely threaten airbases in Germany, let alone the UK.

You *really* need to look at some hard data about troop strengths and economics of this.

The peacetime NATO military budget is larger than the entire Russian economy.

And NATO didn't buy 1000 F35s with the understanding that Russia would just blow up all the airbases LOL.

What do you think they would take those airbases out with, the Oreshniks? How many of those do you think they have ?

 

[spat]

I couldn't disagree more.

Russia isn't this helpless defensless country. Its tech is outstanding and our MIC is behind on a lot of it. Requesting more and more funding every quarter. Why? What do they know that you don't?

I'll further the discussion with these bullet points.

We are at war with Russia right now and have been for over two years. Sure we aren't going up against their ground forces under the same conditions as the Ukrainians, but they are fighting essentially without real support. How would we fair under that doctrine?

Their hands and feet tied as to not provoke NATO which is involved in a non NATO country and losing. Like I said Kiev is still standing. Why? lol

They have defeated every single piece of equipment we have supplied to Ukraine. As they said they would. Very confidently I might add.

I don't live in the world of hypothetical such a "a couple of f16's...HIMARS.....ect" lol No.

Have you seen the French and German reports of their depleted military assets and munitions stores because of Ukraine? Entire tank units without tanks or artillery. Greatly reduced stores of ammunition to operate what they have.

Remember, the EU was on the road to being 80% dependent of Russian energy with in 10 years of 2022. Their choice. So they clearly stopped considering Russia a military threat. lol

Britain says they are not ready to fight all out war. That's not me saying it, it's their govt.

1000 F35's have to take off from somewhere and that somewhere isn't in the EU and those bases would be hit first.

This Idea Russia can be defeated without massive casualties on our part is a fantasy IMHO. In a week? lol no.

We gained absolutely nothing in Iraq or Afghanistan. Telling the families of the dead American's that "we won" would accomplish what? Nothing. They would disagree with you as well. lol

If Afghanistan was victory, I want nothing to do with that type of victory. As it isn't a victory for the American people. MIC gained billions so I'm sure their happy.

If Russia decided to take the EU, it could and we wouldn't be there in force for over a year. If we could get a foot hold without a coilition like in WW1 and 3. We are 3000 miles away and carrier task forces would all be sunk in the Med.

You're also leaving out logistics. That's a huge part. Every weapon system we have relies on semiconductors and chips from where? Ah Taiwan and China. A weapon fired is not replaceable. See the report on the Tawain wars games conducted if China invade it. We don't win. Not me saying it, the DOD.

Without a robust manufacturing, supply chain and field support, you don't win large scale wars.


Check WW1 and WW2 time lines. It's takes time to start, conduct and finish a war of that magnitude. First and foremost, you need to rally Americans for it and that's a tall order right now. When you're trying to convince them the enemy 5000 miles away is dangerous to freedom. Have we heard that narrative before?


If we didn't lose in Afghanistan, then we certainly quit. You can decide which is worse.

Cheers

You are living in an absolute fantasy land.

A few dozen F16s and HIMARS aren't hypotheticals. Those are verifiable figures that we have shipped. IIRC it was 39 HIMARS and 10 F16s so far, with a few more due to be delivered in 2025.


Poland alone could probably curb stomp Russia at this point.

 

[holdover]

Certainly they would see an attack as a threat. But you don't nuke everyone who is a threat. Would they see it as an *existential* threat ?

Why would they ?

If Nato destroyed the Russian army in Ukraine, Russia would be completely defenseless , Russia is theirs for the taking , All they have to do is just drive to Moscow almost unopposed. The temptation would be to easy, the only thing to stop them is the ""good will"" of NATO .

They would find a reason , and do it , no doubt. they are not stupid . Nobody could stop them .

You are making the same mistake that Putin is. The Soviet Union bled Germany, dry. 2024 Russia is not the 1942 Soviet union.

Thats true, but they are not the push overs you make them out to be . If Russia didnt have the top of the line missile technology and a capable air force , 5 times the artillery we have , better electronic warfare than NATO, Id have to concede the fact. Take into consideration the terrain in the Ukraine also Mostly wide open farmlands , similar to WW1 , not a lot of cover. the rasputia in the spring and fall are a natural barrier to maneuver warfare.
And the winter, where there is 3-4 feet of snow on the ground. Ever try walking to the store in 3 feet of snow? Its a mother fucker, not to mention somebody shooting at you. And throw a 80 pound rucksack on while your at it Things slow down in the winter because its to difficult even for modern military's to make advancements. Even the Ukraine's were complaining that the 70 ton Abrams were constantly getting stuck .

Also factor in the military alliance with China and Iran NK, They would provide all the Military aid they needed and would commit to war if necessary .The point is, its no easy task ,

We have no intention of occupying Russian territory. Why would anyone want Russian territory ? If we simply make the goal eliminating the Russian military in Ukraine, we don't need to even step foot in Russia.

If you achive your goal, an opportunity opens up, After defeating their army and airforce in Ukraine , you think NATO is just going to let this gem slip away? They could just walk in the door and take it, but they wont? They would say something like the Putin regime must be removed to restore peace or some other bullshit and just do it . Your faith in human decency is impressive. Its a golden opportunity, and with that gem comes the ability to apply military pressure to China from the west. Thats the cherry man.

Russia can't remotely threaten airbases in Germany, let alone the UK.

What makes you think that?

You *really* need to look at some hard data about troop strengths and economics of this.

I dont argue with the economics except that Russia can produce things far cheaper than the west which helps to off set the economic advantage of the west

Troops strength? Uk has 80k troops right now, Germany isnt a whole lot better. Most of NATO is fairly weak because they didnt put the 2% GDP into it like they were supposed to. It would take them time to get them up to speed

The peacetime NATO military budget is larger than the entire Russian economy.

And NATO didn't buy 1000 F35s with the understanding that Russia would just blow up all the airbases LOL.

And you wonder why Russia feels threatened? Sometimes you have to look at the chessboard from the other side , you can get inside someones head , understand their situation from their perspective and anticipate possible ,probable responses.

You have just been promoted to chief of staff of the Russian army Putin asks for your recommendation on attacking NATO and invading Europe , what do you tell him?